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Time to dig in along the borders

Time to dig in along the borders

Coincidentally, that the leaders of Russia and China, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, with a difference of only two weeks, made policy statements. The President of the Russian Federation wrote, as he called it, "Analytical material", entitled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", and the President of the People's Republic of China delivered an equally important ideological speech at the ceremony in honor of the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party.

You have to understand, that these are not just two regular, albeit important, messages to their own peoples and the world. can say, that before us are the manifestos of two neo-empires. However, their essence is the opposite.. Xi Jinping's Speech Is an Appeal from the Leader of the Nation, which looks like a young tiger preparing to jump. Putin's article is a document of the empire, entering its era of decline.

Strictly speaking, a full-fledged manifesto pulls, Firstly, speech by the President of the People's Republic of China. According to him, China "got off its knees" and is ready to "smash the heads" of the enemies. For the Chinese (and given their economic and military power, then for all the peoples of the world) a "new era" is coming. Such a message does not require decryption., his message is very clear.

The rapid growth of the capitalist economy of the PRC that has not been interrupted for forty years, covered, like a fig leaf, red flag and mantras about "socialism with Chinese characteristics", could not but lead to natural consequences.

New imperialist power (recall, that one of the main features of imperialism is the export of capital, and China is now investing huge amounts of money almost all over the world), whose economy is based on the export of goods, suffocates within those limits, who are trying to establish for him the old "imperialist predators". Now there should be no restrictions for him. If anything, the young Chinese imperialism is ready to respond appropriately to the threat of the use of force.. That fact, that Chairman Xi's speech mentioned the Chinese army, very symbolic…

The only thing, what is impossible to predict now, - this is when and on whom will Beijing begin to flex its military muscles. I think, that the immediate and obvious targets are the disputed islands of South China, East China Seas, possibly Taiwan. Further, as the saying goes, everywhere…

How successfully the military expansion of Chinese imperialism develops will depend on the reaction of the Western world., first of all, USA. If the West again, how in 30-40 years of XX century, will begin to "pacify the aggressor", Beijing's appetite and self-confidence will only grow.

Nevertheless, I repeat, - everything is very clear with the Chinese manifesto. What can not be said about the article by Vladimir Putin. Everything is much more complicated here, florid. And the whole current Russian foreign policy sometimes looks much more Asian, than Chinese under Xi Jinping.

I note, that Putin's article about Russians and Ukrainians only partly draws on a kind of global manifesto. His Munich speech became a real policy document of this kind. 2007 of the year, after which we saw decisive steps - the first already next year in Georgia, then in 2014 in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. And in 2015 year Russia began the Syrian campaign, which continues to the present.

The Russian leader's article is only part of his international policy. Its importance is not in historical excursions or a selection of certain facts., and in that, to solve the problem by any means to return Ukraine to the sphere of Russian influence. After all, according to a number of serious experts, no Russian imperial project can be successful without her.

But it's not just about historical pathos., "Common roots" and so on, but fundamentally different. In the life of every empire there are eras of heyday and decline.. The flowering is always accompanied by a very simple process - the maximum expansion of boundaries. Then comes the stage of decline, which in the old days could drag on for centuries. Its main feature is the suspension of external expansion - the transition from endless expansion of the territory to digging along the perimeter of the external borders and attempts to preserve the conquered.

Probably, the most obvious example here is Hadrian's Val in Britain, which was built by the Romans in 122-128 AD. e. to protect against the northern British tribes unconquered by them. AT 207 year Emperor Septimius Severus tried to expand Roman possessions north of this rampart, but failed. At the end of the 3rd century, the Romans tried to undertake similar campaigns twice more., but every time to no avail. After that, the Celts began almost continuous attempts to break through the Hadrian's Wall.. The Romans held out in Britain for a little over a hundred years., but still in 407 year finally brought their legions out of there.

However, in our rapidly changing time, the era of decline of empires is shrinking from several centuries (as it was not only with the Western Roman Empire, but also with Byzantium) up to dozens, or even just a few years ...

Discussing the last seven years the external expansion of modern Russia, somehow we didn’t notice, what, beginning with 2015 of the year, increment of its territory (legalized, how the annexation of Crimea, or informal, as in the cases of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, DNR and LNR) does not happen anymore.

Yes, at 2015 year the Russian Federation entered Syria, but this operation cannot be attributed to the extensive expansion of the territory. In Syria, Russia, At first, supported one of its few allies in the international arena - President Bashar al-Assad. Secondly, she used this operation for purely practical purposes - testing new Russian weapons in real combat conditions, after, how large-scale military operations in Ukraine were actually suspended. Well, and on trifles - attempts to control not so many assets in this country (Syria is not the richest country in hydrocarbons, besides, the main oil-bearing areas there are controlled by the Americans).

Besides, one of the important, in my opinion, tasks of entering Russian troops into Syria, it was just the switching of the energy of the most passionate and militant part of the supporters of the "Russian world" to something else.

As it appears, already, at 2015 year, the Kremlin realized, that the possibilities for extensive expansion have been exhausted, and you need to start to stand up for your version of Adrian's shaft. This was facilitated by, Firstly, events in Ukraine.

Debaltseve battle, which was lost by the Ukrainian troops, nevertheless showed, that the new authorities in Kiev have a real army. As a result of this battle, the wave could again be repeated the words of King Pyrrhus., pronounced by him after the victory over the Roman army: "Another such victory and I will not have an army".

Most of the Ukrainian troops, caught in the "cauldron" on the Debaltseve bridgehead, fought out of the encirclement. And these were by no means those scattered and confused detachments, which several months earlier were surrounded near Ilovaisk. After Debaltsevo, probably, and it became clear, that now "Ukraine can be returned" only at the cost of total war and huge human sacrifices. But, I think, the Kremlin was not ready for this even then, us, especially, Today.

In this sense, the article by the Russian leader about Russians and Ukrainians (remark, the topic of Belarus is hardly touched upon in it, because after mass protests 2020 years and the history of the Ryanair hijacking Alexander Lukashenko turned into a "lame duck" and is completely dependent on his "older brother") - this is the last attempt to negotiate with Ukraine. And not addressed to politicians, and through their heads directly to Ukrainian citizens.

But the turning point for changing the Kremlin's global strategy was, of course, 2020 year. remind, that in February-March of this year, the Russian-Syrian coalition suffered a crushing defeat in Idlib at the hands of the Turkish army.

And in the fall of the same 2020 years, the defeat of the allied Russia of Armenia, which could not prevent the capture of Karabakh by Azerbaijani troops, trained and guided by Turkish officers. As a result, its leader Nikol Pashinyan had to forget about the slightest hopes for the protection of the CSTO and sign a de facto act of surrender..

To me, of course, may resemble the large-scale exercises of the Russian army in the spring 2021 years in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian borders. Some of the authoritative military experts predicted then, that the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine will take place in May-June, less likely - this fall. As you can see, the first term has already passed, but the war did not start. Something prompts, that nothing like this will happen in the fall either. The empire goes on the defensive ...

So on the vast expanse of the Eurasian continent, we see two simultaneous, but directed in opposite directions of the process. If China is only "waking up", starting to dream now not only about economic domination, but also about political and military, then today's Russia has passed the peak of hopes for the revival of the USSR in one form or another.

Naturally, no call can be made from the Kremlin, breakwater, all, sitting at home, equipping borders, if possible, we continue to build up military power, but we don't seriously climb anywhere else - the resources for this have run out. Propaganda will continue to periodically scare "Western partners" with the nuclear triad, but in real politics there are no attempts to expand towards the former Soviet republics, likely, no longer.

Alexander the Great

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