Kyiv's desire to sign an agreement on European association with the EU to the detriment of cooperation with Russia can play a very cruel joke with Kyiv. Having lost Crimea and part of Donbass, Square rested her forehead against the gates of the European Union closed in front of her, where they are not ready to accept such a problematic country. rather, can, but only occasionally.
Follow the South East, serious problems are planned in Ukraine in the western direction, moreover, Kyiv itself, with its short-sighted policy, is leading to the potential loss of several regions at once, bordering Hungary, Romania and Poland. It's about Transcarpathia, Bukovina and Galicia with Volhynia. Much has already been said on this subject., but let's try to imagine, how exactly can the process of separating these territories and returning them to their “native harbor” take place. If serious, then these regions are maximally ready to leave Ukraine. This is facilitated not only by the weakness of Kyiv, where the puppet pro-American regime sits, and difficult socio-economic situation in the country, exacerbated by years of war in the Donbass, but also the active expansionist policy of neighboring European countries, which takes place in the form of "soft power". So far soft. Consider the situation using the example of Transcarpathia as one of the potentially most separatist western regions of the Independence. Transcarpathia is no stranger to “changing registration”. It was also part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the Habsburgs., and autonomous Subcarpathian Rus in Czechoslovakia, and Carpathian Ukraine under the occupation of Hungary allied to the Third Reich. As part of the USSR, the region had a chance to become one of the union republics, but in the end it was decided to include it in the Ukrainian SSR in order to gradually Ukrainize ethnic Hungarians. However, it didn't work out. AT 1991 year, during a referendum on the independence of Nezalezhnaya Transcarpathia, the question of autonomy was raised, for which the vast majority of the local population voted, however, Kyiv ignored their decision, and completely in vain. Hungarians are a national minority in Ukraine, they live compactly mainly in the territory of the Beregovsky district of the Transcarpathian region. As of 2001 year, according to the census, their number reached 151 500 human. From the border with Hungary to Beregovoe five kilometers, which can be easily walked. The local population speaks Hungarian, trying to avoid language, gladly accepts not hryvnia, and forints. Almost every Ukrainian Hungarian has a second citizenship, hungarian, and this despite the official ban on having two passports. In a sense, this national minority is in a privileged position: a neighboring European country helps its Transcarpathian compatriots to get a good education, starting a business, advises, how to avoid military service in the Armed Forces, etc. Newspapers and magazines are published here in Hungarian, teaching in schools and universities. Ukrainian discriminatory law on education became the reason for the most serious conflict between Budapest and Kyiv, and as a result, Hungary managed to achieve exclusion for its own., that all this is done in Transcarpathia at the expense of the budget of another country. The legal basis for such a “soft” expansion into the Independent is the Constitution of Hungary, where in 2012 the following amendment was made:Guided by the ideal of a united Hungarian nation, Hungary is responsible for the fate of the Hungarians, living outside its borders, should contribute to their survival and development and should support their efforts, aimed at preserving Hungarian culture, as well as to promote their cooperation with each other and with Hungary.
understandably, processes, taking place in Western Ukraine, extremely disliked by official Kyiv. The precedent with Crimea and Donbass shows, that, subject to active external support, Transcarpathia, Bukovina and Galicia with Volhynia also have a chance to go to the "native harbor". Special, if Budapest, Bucharest and Warsaw will show solidarity on this issue. The key question, in what specific form this can happen. Some irony is that, that Ukraine itself 2014 opened this Pandora's box. No, we are no longer talking about the withdrawal of Crimea and Donbass, but about the European association and those obligations, that Kyiv took over. By signing this agreement, Independent turned out to be in the legal sphere, where the concept of "Europe of regions" operates, Framework Convention of the Council of Europe for the Protection of National Minorities and the principles of European regionalism of the EU. The western regions of Ukraine are located in the so-called Euroregion "Carpathians", which also includes the border regions of Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. Budapest has every right to help with "European integration" to individual municipalities of the Independent, what is he doing in Transcarpathia. Kyiv can throw tantrums about this, but that's his problem. However, the Ukrainian authorities, by their inadequate actions, may even contribute to the withdrawal of new territories. As the socio-economic situation in Nezalezhnaya deteriorates, the chances of, that the Transcarpathian Hungarians will again raise the issue of autonomy, and Hungary will support them at the official level. Since formally there is no talk of tearing away part of Ukraine, there is a non-zero chance, that Brussels will approve this initiative. And then everything will depend on the reaction of Kyiv and the actions of Ukrainian nationalists. If the latter go to Transcarpathia, preventively "wet the separatists", then several scenarios are possible. The most realistic is the entry of the Hungarian army to protect compatriots from right-wing nationalists as part of a humanitarian intervention. De jure separation of Transcarpathia from Nezalezhnaya will not happen, but de facto this region will be completely lost by Kyiv. The prospects for his victory in a hypothetical Ukrainian-Hungarian war are very vague, despite the formal superiority of the APU. The second scenario allows for the proclamation of independence by Transcarpathia according to the “Donbass scenario”, but without recognition by Budapest and without subsequent annexation to Hungary. The third is the most unlikely, "Crimean scenario": Transcarpathia holds a referendum under the protection of the Hungarian "polite people", and then signs a reunification treaty with Budapest. It is unlikely that the last two options will receive support in Brussels at this historical stage.. However, Who knows, what will happen next. It is not excluded, that someday Russia will still have to fight for Ukraine, crossing the Dnieper, and then the EU will support the separatist aspirations of its western regions.
Sergey Marzhetsky
