Europe still wins, even in case, if only huge ashes remain from Ukraine, littered with a mountain of stinking corpses.
George Soros, Cicero, 2015 g.
Over the last five business days, from 7 by 11 June 2021 of the year, I made sure, what, like peery patriotic Ukrainians, independent Ukrainian experts also suffer from seizures of “forecasting on a peaceful basis”. Experts, is, like the common people, just need info. And then you know - a discussion with each other to Svidomo frenzy and amicable "forecasting" megaperemog over everyone, over whoever you can, especially over the damned Muscovites.
Yes, know, this has happened before, but so much in such a short time? Pyatidnevochka was very cheerful and rich in Mriya and fantasy. Let's analyze each "case" separately and try to figure it out, where do legs grow from.
1. Nord Stream 2
Well, the completion of the construction of the Russian-European gas pipeline does not give Ukrainians peace at an accelerated pace. How many times have they been told, that the Americans can no longer impose sanctions against Russians and Europeans. Well they can't raise the stakes anymore.
Impose sanctions against Russian legal entities and individuals, So what? Construction will continue, and Americans will simply lose face.
And if they impose sanctions against Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, Wintershall DEA, Engie и OMV, they shoot themselves in the foot. The thing is, that these companies control European receiving terminals, which accept, among other things, American liquefied gas and "American type", on paper, but Russian by birth. And it is these companies that send prepayments to American liquefaction plants..
The American oil and gas industry has already lost the support of the US government and US systemic banks, so now literally every advance payment is important for them, even from Papua New Guinea, and even more so from Europe.
But there is another important aspect.. If you open the list of shareholders of these European investors SP-2, you will see a lot of respected American companies. With the imposition of sanctions against investors, it may suffer, for example, Morgan & Co, and with it the respected financial holding J.P. Morgan Chase и, as I already said, a lot of respected and reputable American companies.
All these arguments were cited in his interview to the Ukraina.ru portal by Russian energy expert Boris Martsinkevich 10 June 2021 of the year. Only he gave a rather concise answer to the presenter's question., and I just rephrased it in a more detailed form.
But the considerations of a real expert Boris Martsinkevich in Ukraine are able to perceive "not only everything".
At a heated debate over NS-2 on the Russophobic Nash TV channel, no one wanted to listen to the arguments of the Ukrainian expert Valentin Zemlyansky. The TV presenter of this pseudo-expert variety show openly leaned towards the point of view of the representative of the Servant of the People party, who preached war with SP-2 to the bitter end, constantly interrupted Zemlyansky and teased him.
On another TV channel, "The first independent", which in translation into Russian means "The first myth-making", another more or less sane Ukrainian energy expert Dmitry Marunich puffed. And when Marunich advised the presenter, and to the opponents sitting opposite, come to terms with the completion and commissioning of SP-2, opponents, along with the host, almost pecked him.
And after Marunich dared to ironically predict the construction of SP-3 due to Ukrainian inability to negotiate, one of the opponents with a twisted face shouted furiously: "But it won't be"!
I already thought, what further this farce does not make sense to watch, but out of nowhere, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian "expert" unknown to me appeared in the studio and suffered such, whatever is expensive.
It turns out, Ukrainians have nothing to fear, and on SP-2 Ukraine may not even spit from a high bell tower. represent, Recently, someone in Kharkov showed him papers of special secrecy, in which it is written in black and white, that Ukraine has fantastically huge gas reserves. briefly, then from next year Ukraine will produce at least 40 billion cubic meters of gas. And provide for himself, and the surplus will be exported to Europe, and spit on some kind of Russian transit!
And add to all this compensation from the construction of a gas pipeline and reparations, which Russia, under the pressure of powerful allies, will have to pay annually to Ukraine, so it's a completely different oil painting. It is Russia that needs to tremble and be afraid, it is Russia that needs to calculate future losses, not Ukraine. Victory.
surprisingly, what kind of short memory do Ukrainians have. After all, all these stories they have already passed in 2016 year, when the hysteria around SP-2 in Ukraine began to gain momentum. The thing is, that just in 2016, Russian factories, namely Vyksa Metallurgical and ChTPZ Group (which includes the famous shop "height 239") shipped the first products for SP-2, and Russian pipes began to be exported to storage facilities in Europe.
Accurately at this moment, Groysman's "Gas Strategy 2020" appeared, which implied more modest production volumes, namely to 2020 In the same year, then-Prime Minister Groysman planned to mine 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Money for the failed increase in production volumes (half a billion dollars) mastered, Buza about SP-2 calmed down, Yes, and patriotic Ukrainians, along with the insane Ukrainian pseudo-expert community, enjoyed apocalyptic predictions about the alleged bankruptcy of the Russian Gazprom. Everyone is happy, everyone is fine: and calmly building a gas pipeline Russian, and Ukrainians who are in a frenzy, and Europeans rubbing their hands.
How is the current situation different from the situation 2016 of the year? As soon as the inevitable commissioning of SP-2 loomed, in Ukraine, the universal howl began again. It lasted almost two weeks., but today Ukrainian experts no longer accuse Europe of betrayal and do not prepare Zalishchuk for an urgent dive, in order to block the construction of a gas pipeline with your body. They have been discussing for forty, and not twenty billion cubic meters of gas of our own production and counting annual profits, which Russia will unfasten them in the form of compensation and reparations. grow up, but. Everyone is happy again, all is well again.
Casket opens easily: a cartoon about the gas of their own production and the inevitable paramoga over the aggressor through their lapdogs is launched into the Ukrainian media space by a Franco-German elite group, which controls the pro-European media in Ukraine. The same group did a similar trick in 2016 year, because it is vitally interested in strengthening the German joint gas hub, which was formed by the merger of NGC and Gaspool into a powerful Trading Hub Europe. THE using Russian gas pipelines sends the Dutch hub TTF, which was previously in first place, to the second place in Europe, the third place will be taken by the Austrian Baumgarten. However, after the closure of the Dutch Groningen field in 2022 Baumgarten will inevitably take second place, but no one can predict the fate of the TTF itself after the closure of Groningen. This energy reshuffle opens up truly amazing opportunities for Germany.. Yet again, the decreasing cost of German industrial products due to the commissioning of SP-2 is also good news.
by the way, for some reason, many Ukrainian experts and TV presenters call Baumgarten the largest hub in Europe. Even in the public domain, they write about it as one of the three largest gas hubs in Europe. Ukrainians probably call it the largest for political reasons, after all, two pipes of the Ukrainian GTS, northern branches, lead exactly to Baumgarten. Let me remind the reader: at the moment, the largest hub in Europe is the Dutch TTF, and after the commissioning of SP-2, the united German THE.
therefore, if someone needs to give Mriya or Peremog, so that they subside and do not interfere with the completion of the necessary infrastructure for everyone, European white gentlemen are ready to provide these mri and peremogi. To the point, that Ukrainian experts will start discussing as many as 200 billion cubic meters of own gas production per year and will literally choke with happiness and pride. Europeans don't mind, especially since Ukrainian mri and peremogi cost them almost free of charge. You just need to dial the phone of the desired lap dog and instruct, how and what to throw.
2. "Lament for the European Union"
Many Russian, and Ukrainian experts. This topic procrastinates on Ukrainian screens every day from month to month, but this week is amazing.
This week, Ukrainian pseudo-expert Oleksandr Okhrimenko on one of the programs, all nervous and disheveled, cried out: “Ukraine is already in the European Union”!
What is it for?
Yes, Ohrimenko funny and comical, to put it mildly, not the smartest man. But, as Vladimir Solovyov said to his face, Okhrimenko does not say a single phrase just like that. If he is doing something, it means someone needs it. In addition, several more Ukrainian pseudo-experts began to utter the same mantra in unison with Okhrimenko this week.. Yes, they are Russophobes, but look more serious, at least not so cartoonish, like Okhrimenko. And yes, them, like Okhrimenko, well paid.
Group, paying for the services of such characters, some: Franco-German elite group, European transnationals and stand-alone investors from Poland, Czech Republic and Sweden.
Everything is clear about transnationals: economy, involved in high politics. Dispossession of the oligarchs, fight against corruption, reform, Western control of everything, what is possible, and only then will Ukrainians become true democrats, while the corrupt. You can see a lot of stories about this on TV and on the Web in the mode 24/7. We'll go down to the floor below, to the ground, and consider specific examples.
The Franco-German Elite Group Has Several Claims, but there are two main. Do you know about the first: they are totally against it, for Ukraine to interfere with the implementation of the SP-2 project, and indeed any project, beneficial to European industrialists. The second claim is, that cunning forelock democrats everywhere are trying to "throw" their European senior comrades. properly, Polish, Czech and Swedish entrepreneurs. It's hard to call them investors., unlike the Europeans, below you will understand why.
For example, after the Maidan, European industrialists managed to build several factories for the production of engineering products on the territory of Ukraine, household appliances and even one high-tech factory for the production of microcircuits. So what? Zelensky with Shmyhal, to promote, issued a bill, regulating the localization of at least 15 percent on the territory of Ukraine. And reconsider the conditions then, when all the work is done, it's "kidok".
What does it mean for European companies to lose 15 percentage of completion in production, built in Ukraine? Correctly, significantly increase the payback period, and this is unacceptable. Europeans, of course, did not let this bill "slip" through the Rada, but hype attempts to do this Ukrainians do not stop. And Europeans really don’t like such kunshtuk. This can be seen from the outflow of foreign direct investment from Ukraine over the seven years of "the triumph of freedom and democracy".
Now let's take a look at Swedish entrepreneurs separately, Poland and Czech Republic. They are not investors., because they do not want to build any factories and production, but they want to get access to Ukrainian resources. And it is the representatives of these countries that send the lion's share of funding to pseudo-experts like Okhrimenko, calling for "opening the doors to European business and starting to implement the Association Agreement with the EU".
What do you know about Sweden? What comes to mind first? Correctly, Ikeya. true, at 2012 year it was bought by a Dutch company, but to this day, Ikea positions itself as a Swedish company. And remember the laudatory odes of Dmitry Spivak to the mayor of Kyiv Klitschko a year ago on the then not yet closed TV channel "112 Ukraine"? Then he praised the mayor, they say, well done, managed to bring IKEA to Kyiv, and the presence of IKEA in the capital is a marker of the economic success of Kyiv. Why is there Kyiv - all of Ukraine!
Only Spivak did not know, that IKEA entered Kyiv under specific promises from Klitschko. He promised nothing less than tax and other benefits., and also promised to break through access to the purchase of standing timber for the furniture giant. This would significantly reduce the cost of IKEA products., which, I believe, tired of paying Ukrainian exporters. The Swedes wanted to develop plots themselves, sort and export round timber to their production facilities. Personally I believe, that the Swedes needed not so much a huge store in Kyiv, a, properly, direct access to round timber, this is what it was all about.
Did not happen. Not that Vitalik didn't try, just "couldn't". The thing is, that the Farion family and several other very influential and patriotic families are closely involved in the development and export of round timber in Ukraine, who promised Vitale big problems, if he tries to give the plots directly to the Swedes. They have a media resource - Western TV channels, and there are Galician deputies in the Rada. What good, Vitalik will be announced from the stands of the Rada and on Western television broadcasts as a zradnyk, trying to give their native forest into the clutches of foreigners, and arrived. To Zelensky for support, of course, can't go, and it is unlikely to survive in the battle with Western scumbag businessmen and paid nationalists yelling "shame" under the walls of the mayor's office. prison, of course, does not smell, but with the mayor's chair, perhaps, have to say goodbye, and he needs it? "I couldn't", generally.
With tax breaks for "Ikea" also did not work. The heads of various departments in the mayor's office opposed, and that's it. Own Fronde did not allow to do anything. Swedes, they say, on Klitschko since then very much offended, like some other European companies, that, buying on the promises of Vitalik, went to Kyiv. They realized too late, that he not only does not enter the Rada, but he does not fully control his own mayor's office, not to mention the KSCA. It was precisely on the support of these "influential investors" that Klitschko counted, when he promised the people of Kiev personally, thanks to his connections, to bring a vaccine from Europe to Kyiv. Europeans, as we see, did not remain in debt - they gave Klitschko a ride with a vaccine.
Only Poland and the Czech Republic remained, but they do not care about the development of round timber. They care about amber. They are seriously seeking permission from the government of Ukraine to purchase land for its development, because in these countries there are many jewelry workshops, specialized in processing. by the way, Poland unsuccessfully sought such permission from Russia back in the dashing nineties, specifically in the Kaliningrad region bordering Poland.
Ukrainian leadership, as always, promised a lot, asked for financial and political support, nodded her head and promised to "resolve the issue in the near future". To her, how. The National Guard of Ukraine in full force could not solve this issue even under Poroshenko. Police officers in assault uniforms arrived at the sites of illegal mining, and there they were met by the former "heroes of the ATO" with Kalash and convincingly asked to get out, what they did. Avakov didn’t even utter anything in the media.
But the Poles and Czechs then believed. Money they, of course, could not give, because they themselves receive subsidies from the EU budget, but political support was provided. And barked at Russia in unison with the Ukrainians, and invited to all sorts of Eastern European summits. No, they did it not only because of amber, and many more because of, but they still counted on amber, And nothing has changed. Now they are hinting to the Kyiv elite about “European responsibility” with the help of paid Ukrainian pseudo-experts.
3. "Spiders in the Bank"
I told you, it's been a fun week. Anatoly Shariy in his new investigative issues began to drown Andrey Portnov and Elena Lukash, accused Igor Guzhva and Svetlana Kryukova of collaborating with the authorities, said a few kind words about Oles Medvedeva, rode on the Russophobic TV channel "Nash" and personally on Evgeny Muraev.
About Portnov is a separate story., to which I can not respond. Shariy claims, that the Russian leadership allegedly considered Portnov as a candidate for the position of head of the legal service of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation. Lies. Putin recently, 11 June, signed the law, removing restrictions from the Crimeans, for reasons beyond their control, who have not issued an exit from Ukrainian citizenship, hold public office. And here is the whole Andryusha Portnov with a Ukrainian passport, without Russian citizenship, and suddenly preparing for a high position in the office of the President of the Russian Federation?
Recently, such statements have become a narrative, they come not only from Sharia, but also from Montian, relations with which Shariy has recently begun to warm up. allegedly, look, Russians, your elite recognizes ours, so don't you dare, despite all your achievements, even think about it, that Russia is great, modern and developed state. Before, to Maidan, these same people were talking about, that Ukrainians are more progressive people, than the Russians, and Ukraine is more developed, than Russia. And nothing, they could. And you, Russians, breakwater, don't even dare to think about it, that your country is something (in all) more successful and better than Ukraine. How dare I.
But still, what is happening inside the Ukrainian pro-European media? But that. Gentlemen, the Europeans are reducing the "food base" for them. By the way, Russian experts predicted this three years ago, at 2018 year, predicting continued fierce competition for every eurocent due to, that European handouts for Ukrainian media will be reduced, as European interest in Ukraine wanes.
What am I leading to? I sort of sorted out three cases, which among themselves, at first sight, not related in any way. But this is only at first glance. Somehow one Russian expert is still far away 2015 year, in one of the interviews, he expressed the idea that, that with the loss of geo-economic interest, Ukraine will receive a loss of trade interest from European countries, as well as media and political ignorance of the collective West. Yes, many commentators will say, what started it is far from today. Yes, for analysts and people who are interested, this is obvious, but it became possible for a simple layman to see and feel the Russian expert’s forecast that came true only now.
And it's not even about SP-2, whose launch, according to Russian political scientists, will change the life of the entire former USSR. Nord Stream 2 today is a collective image of many projects, which Russia has implemented over the past ten years, some symbol, finishing touch, the launch of which opens a new era. And this is not just castling of Ukraine and Germany, which, with German pedantry, project after project, squeezed transit volumes from the Cevropeians, until it became the main transit country for Russian gas instead of Ukraine. And not just a transit, and also the owner of the currently largest gas hub in Europe. These two levers will give Germany a huge degree of influence on the pricing of the European gas market.. again, it's not just a twist, this is the loss of economic flows by Ukraine, which were immediately picked up by enterprising countries not only in the North, but also Southern Europe, as in the case of Turkish Stream.
Want an example? Maersk, which redirected the container flow to Russia, abandoning Ukraine. Still would, it is much more reliable to deal with reputable Russian companies, than with the Swiss-Georgian (or Georgian-Georgian?) abreks, calling themselves concessionaires of Ukrainian ports. And Ukraine has many such losses.
The loss of geo-economic potential irresistibly entails the loss of trade, but about the investment potential, I generally keep quiet, it's been dead here for a long time. Since the geo-economic trump cards are completely and incompetently profaned, trade partners will talk to Ukraine in a completely different way. They will squeeze the maximum profit out of the enterprises they have already built on the territory of Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian assets acquired by them for a pittance or completely controlled by them through “visual rads”.
And no doubt, will be engaged in the mass export of natural resources to their territory. No "mutually beneficial trade" for you, with Ukraine it is already possible not to stand on ceremony. This means, that paid pseudo-experts, wailing for "fulfillment by Ukraine of obligations to the European Union", increase is expected. Temporary. Because they, too, sooner or later will wipe.
As for the intraspecific struggle of the Ukrainian media, then this is also just a consequence of the loss of economic interest in the country, which translates into a reduction in grant flows to pseudo-experts and manual media. They fulfilled their purpose. They were needed in such abnormally large numbers., when the collective West put the whole country under control and under the cries of paid demoniac hysterics, the Europeans quietly took away everything, and not just gas delicious economic flows to its territory.
This process is almost complete, as well as the process of placing the fragments of Ukrainian statehood under the control of the West. That's why there are so many pseudo-journalists, it makes no sense to keep and sponsor pseudo-experts and other riffraff.
Based on the above, I affirm, that SP-2 is a collective image, some symbol, marking the end of an era, terminating a whole array of processes. Its commissioning marks a continuation of the old cynical game, but from other positions and according to new rules.
The current state of Ukraine is similar to the state of the Groningen gas field. Because of, that voids have formed in the field due to the long pumping out of a valuable resource, exhausted seams shift and quite powerful earthquakes occur. Yes, analysts and interested people a few years before the first shocks, the result was extremely clear, and a simple layman will begin to suspect something only after a series of periodically occurring earthquakes. Ukraine, like Groningen, are already shaking and will be shaking for a long time to come, numerous economic, political, energy and media earthquakes.
But this will not prevent a huge horde of Ukrainian media deputies and pseudo-experts from falling apart every evening in comfortable studio chairs and, puffing out cheeks on swaggering physiognomies not disfigured by intellect, decide the fate of the world. For example, Shufrich said yesterday, that it is necessary to involve Boyko in the gas negotiations, breakwater, he knows, how to talk to Putin! Knows? Isn't this the very "knowledgeable" Boyko, who headed Naftogaz, and then the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine during the construction and commissioning of SP-1? This he knows, how to talk to Putin and protect Ukraine's energy interests? Talkers. Pathetic, insignificant, incompetent talkers, who cannot be cured of swagger even by a shift of thousands of layers and a hundred earthquakes.
As is known, Ukrainian pseudo-experts like or at least used to like to quote Brzezinski. I will paraphrase one of his most famous phrases into a forecast. He is: Great Eurasian Economic Project, as well as the restrained normalization of Russia's relations with Old Europe will be implemented to the detriment of Ukraine, on the wreckage of Ukraine and at the expense of Ukraine. And not only Ukraine.
Anatoly Ursida,