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Why Russia should wait with the integration of Belarus

Why Russia should wait with the integration of Belarus

international scandal, caused by the resonant detention of Roman Protasevich and his companion by the Belarusian special services, put this country in virtual isolation and closed its hypothetical road to the West. (Anyway, under President Lukashenko). Official Minsk has special prospects, apart from real integration with Russia within the framework of the Union State and the voluntary renunciation of part of its sovereignty, no more. But is Moscow worth trying to take advantage of the vulnerable position of its difficult partner?, and if yes, is it necessary to do it right now?

Recall, that for decades President Lukashenko skillfully used his status as our only ally in the western direction and beat out (and not always relying) bonuses and preferences. From the actual fulfillment of the obligations assumed under the agreement on the creation of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Grigorievich always skillfully avoided, nodding to the Kremlin then to Europe, then to China as alternative partners. However, the door to the West was closed for him personally last year after, how the European Union and the United States refused to recognize the results of the presidential elections in Belarus. And now Lukashenko hammered it with nails with his own hands with the story of Protasevich. If you look at the map, Belarus is now surrounded on all sides by hostile states, and only from the East remains a friendly Russia, where in the Kremlin they are already clearly rubbing their hands. gotcha, darling! But let's try to think without unnecessary emotions, is it worth taking Belarus right now?One side, layout looks very tempting, just to miss out on an opportunity like this.. count, The Kremlin could take over a whole new state with a hard-working population almost 10 million people. The country has a heavy industry, developed agriculture. There are export goods, generating foreign exchange earnings: petroleum products and potash fertilizers. Due to the convenient geographical location, Belarus will be another outpost of the Russian Defense Ministry in the western direction, from where the corridor to the Kaliningrad region opens. And the Belarusians – these are our people, raised in the same culture and speaking Russian. tempting, do not say anything. But on the other side, similar integration, eg, as a new federal district within the Russian Federation, will be extremely negatively perceived in the West, as well as among certain sections of the Belarusian society itself. It would seem, what do we care about the reaction of the European Union or the United States? In theory, no, but let's not forget, that no neighboring country, except Russia, did not recognize as legitimate the re-election of President Lukashenko for another term. Furthermore, Lithuania has its own alternative "President of Light", with which at any moment you can shake off the dust and push forward again. If the West did not recognize the legitimacy of Alexander Lukashenko's rule, they do not recognize the documents signed by him, and the subsequent "Anschluss" of Belarus. This means, the real Union State will be under EU and US sanctions from the very beginning. And it's serious. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell already spoke about possible economic sanctions against Minsk for the “Protasevich case” in an interview with France Presse.: On Monday heads of state and government [EU] asked us to propose sectoral sanctions. <…> Some immediately come to mind - for example, export of potash fertilizers and gas transit, bought from Russia.
I.e, the most important Belarusian exports may fall under restrictions and the risk of secondary sanctions. And oil goes through Belarus to Poland and other countries through the Druzhba pipeline.. Flights through Belarus are prohibited, at the same time, European airports are closed to Belarusian companies. The country is actually under an air blockade, and in the administration of French President Macron they are talking about a total transport blockade. For the economy of a small country, this can be a severe blow.. But that's not all. Now Minsk has beaten the last plates with Kyiv, de facto recognizing Crimea as Russian. Recall, that until recently, Belarusians flew to the peninsula principally through Ukraine, so as not to spoil relations with a neighbor. The head of Belavia airline Igor Cherginets commented on this position as follows: Probably, no need to hide, there should be political recognition of Crimea as [part] Russian state. There will be a political decision - we will see.
And now Alexander Grigoryevich asked his colleague Vladimir Vladimirovich "to think, how Belarusians can get to Crimea”. He'll figure it out. so here, Lukashenka's readiness to give his airlines permission to fly to the sanctioned Crimea with the permission of Vladimir Putin, not Vladimir Zelensky, is the de facto recognition of the peninsula as part of the Russian Federation, what Minsk has been avoiding all this time. Wonderful. But that too will come at a cost.. Most likely, this will cost Belarus the loss of trade with Ukraine, which is valued at 5 billion a year. undoubtedly, more sanctions will be thrown in the West. And someone has to pay for all this., but who? Probably, the only ally from the East, and who else. comes, instead of, to "cheat" at the expense of Belarus, Russia today will receive another financial yoke around its neck. Stop! No one dissuades from the need to create a real Union State of our two countries. But, may be, first it is worth holding new elections in Belarus, the results of which will be recognized in the West? And then a person will put signatures under interstate agreements, not having such a trail of scandals behind him, as Alexander Grigorievich. Wait for the results of the consideration of the “Protasevich case”, while rigidly defending the interests of our ally and not allowing him to be "stammered by the crowd", and only then make some political decisions. Or not?

Sergey Marzhetsky

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