Intrigue of the current year - Iran's return to the oil market: when can it happen, under what conditions and under what circumstances, I told ABF "Economics today» Head of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Development Technologies of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Russian State University of Oil and Gas named after. AND. M. Gubkin Vyacheslav Mishchenko.
USA for the second time since 1991 imported oil and oil products from sanctioned Iran. Delivery took place in March this year.
What's behind buying Iranian oil
US Department of Energy (EIA) published data on imports in 1,03 million barrels of oil and oil products from Iran in March.
First with 1991 of the year, the delivery of Iranian oil also took place in October 2020 of the year, however, it is difficult to call it commercial import. USA confiscated 1,11 million barrels from four Iranian vessels, traveling from Venezuela to sell black gold. As a result, the Americans sold oil and spent the money on lawsuits against Iran..
Almost immediately after the incident, In November 2020 of the year, US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iranian officials and companies, including against Iranian Oil Minister Bizhan Zangane.
US purchase of two oil tankers from Iran is an event, which does not affect the current market. However, it is an important signal that, that Washington is ready for dialogue with Tehran, or has already resumed it, sure Vyacheslav Mishchenko.
“The USA is behaving exactly the same, as with Russia: simultaneously with the discussion of the agenda of the future meeting of the two heads of state, they introduce new sanctions. This is a well-known policy: increase pressure, keeping some negotiating positions. Demonstrated willingness to talk, but on certain conditions ", - the expert says.
The fact of a one-time transaction on Iranian oil companies, which are associated with the USA, as a whole cannot affect the balance of supply and demand and, Consequently, on world oil prices.
Another is more important, Mishchenko stressed, - with the arrival of the new administration of Joe Biden to the leadership, the topic of negotiations on the return of the United States to a nuclear deal with Iran resumed.
AT 2015 year UK, Germany, China, Russia, USA, France and Iran signed a Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (SVPD), implying limiting Tehran's nuclear program.
However, 2018 year under President Donald Trump, the United States announced a unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal, reintroduced tough sanctions against Iran, aiming to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. Washington also called on other countries to stick to their policies..
"That, what are we seeing, perhaps, is an indicator of the beginning or already ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as other participants, on the resumption of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions on the Iranian oil and gas industry. As a result, a certain volume of oil may return to the market., who will form Iran after the abolition of restrictive measures ", - noted Mishchenko.
the, that Iran is preparing to increase oil exports amid optimistic talks with the United States on a nuclear deal and the lifting of the embargo also reports Bloomberg.
How Russia will be affected by the return to the Iranian market
The situation around Iran was recently discussed by the ministers of the OPEC + platform, who also marked the market recovery after the crushing drop last year.
There is even a shortage of oil on the market: according to preliminary estimates, he makes 1 million barrels per day. This indicates, that the OPEC + deal fulfilled its function and stabilized the oil market in terms of supply.
“Next you need to look, whether the parties will keep the agreement on the reduction or will gradually increase oil production. In the second case, one of the options for the development of events may be the return of Iran to the market ", - explains Mishchenko.
Iran is ready to ensure order 2 million barrels per day. "Most likely, at first, if the market opens, these indicators will not exceed 0,5 million barrels of. Generally, in the context of a calendar year, Iran can return to the market about 1 million barrels a day ", - the expert predicts.
The renewal of the nuclear deal and the lifting of the embargo on Iran - these issues are the main intrigue, which can change the balance of power in the oil market this year.
Important, how exactly Iran will fit into the OPEC + platform, despite, what is its member. Not a secret, that the fallen share of Iran was replaced by Saudi Arabia for several years, which, basically, took on the role of leader of the oil cartel.
The expert stated, that Iranian oil is closest in quality to Russian oil.
“Russian black gold felt good on the market largely due to the, that there was an embargo on oil from Iran and Venezuela, which are in the same segment. The resulting deficit fueled prices and demand. Oil from Russia was actively traded even during the period of the most severe restrictions, related to coronavirus ", - reminded Mishchenko.
The return of certain volumes of Iranian oil means, that a competitor of Russia for the Urals brand will return to the market. However, the United States, Iran and other OPEC + members face a long and difficult negotiation process, which can take several months, concluded the expert.