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Putin's dilemma: or lifetime reign, or war

Putin's dilemma: or lifetime reign, or war

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, reacting to document, prepared in the European Union, in which Russia is accused of plans for the actual absorption of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR, He stated, that "Russia did not plan and does not plan to absorb anyone".

One side, the price of such words, generally, well known. Suffice it to remind, what 4 Martha 2014 of the year, when preparations for a referendum on accession to Russia were in full swing in Crimea, Vladimir Putin answered journalists' questions about the situation in the region. In particular, then such a dialogue took place:

Question: Vladimir Vladimirovich, can be clarified? People, who carried out blocking of units of the Ukrainian army in Crimea, - in the shape of, very similar to the Russian military uniform. They were Russian soldiers, it was the Russian military?Vladimir Putin: Look at the post-Soviet space. It's full of form, which looks like a shape ... Go to our store, and you will buy any form there.: But were they Russian soldiers or not?Vladimir Putin: They were the local self-defense forces.

At the same time, literally after a month and a half, 17 April, answering questions during the "direct line", the same Putin said, that “behind the back of the self-defense forces of Crimea, of course, our servicemen stood up ".

Respectively, the question is whether the Kremlin is going to take any, including the military, actions in eastern Ukraine, what some experts continue to talk about, It remains open. Military columnist Pavel Felgenhauer, in particular, considers, that "the decision in principle to occupy the entire south of Ukraine has already been made". Is it or not we, probably, we will find out in the next six months or a year.

On the other hand, to understand, how high is the likelihood of a big war with Ukraine now, first you need to answer the question, what could be the main, so to speak, the global goal of Vladimir Putin, who makes the final decisions in today's Russia.

This goal, contrary to the ideas of imperial conspiracy theorists, uncomplicated. The vast majority of the most ordinary citizens, not sophisticated in politics, can identify it easily enough, based on their own priorities. Everything is as easy as shelling pears: every normal person wants to live well and long. point. Putin is also a man, but because, in the end, wants the same.

The difference between him and ordinary citizens here is, that in order, to live happily ever after, the ruler of Russia must remain at the pinnacle of power until the end of his days.

Putin cannot take any other position for a variety of reasons. At first, he doesn't trust anyone. Secondly, he knows, that even legal immunity for former presidents, which was laid down in the Constitution last year, in which case, does not guarantee protection. And here it is easy to understand. any ruler, in power for so long, acquires many ill-wishers and enemies, who are waiting in the wings. Respectively, the only guarantee remains the preservation of the supreme power - the office of the president or any other, which for this purpose you can think of.

The entire current policy of the state is subordinated to this main task - both internal, and external. From this point of view, it is necessary to consider the possibility or impossibility of a large Russian-Ukrainian war..

Today the likelihood of her really increased. At first, trying to protect yourself as much as possible from external enemies, and, simultaneously, being a politician of the twentieth century, Putin wants to move the border of the country as far as possible, especially western, away. In this sense, the accession of Belarus, Moscow's recognition of the DPR and LPR with subsequent "referendums" there on joining Russia is a matter of time.

Of course, it's harder with Lukashenka. Father, who recently flew to Russia for help during folk performances at home, coping with the protest, has taken over the reins of government again and does not want to surrender his country wholesale or retail. Therefore, "closer integration" with Minsk, probably, postponed for a while.

But the DPR and LPR are like ripe grapes, they are ready at any moment, when they are given the go-ahead from the Kremlin, fall into the arms of the "historical homeland". Moscow has not worried about the international consequences of this step for a long time.

However, the Kremlin cannot come to terms with the complete and final loss of the former "fraternal" 40-million Ukraine, which today - tomorrow will join NATO. In addition, within Russia, the authorities have nothing to offer their people., which the, disentangling the results of the Kremlin's foreign policy adventures, lives worse and worse.

Besides, and Ukraine, and the West actively rejects those solutions to problems, emerged after 2014 of the year, which the Kremlin would be ready to consider as compromise. On Crimea, any change of position is hardly possible. With DNR and LNR, if you insist on strict compliance with the letter of the Minsk agreements, Moscow also fails. After all, this document assumes, that the "republics of Donbass" retain their armed forces and actually become independent from Ukraine, formally remaining in its composition. Kiev only has to finance these territories., without affecting that, what is happening there, to which no one will agree to any Ukrainian authorities.

These are the factors, who speak for the worst (that is, the military) scenarios for resolving Russian-Ukrainian conflicts and, wider, conflict with the West. However, this option also has obvious disadvantages.. At first, given the increased power of the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as varied, including, military support, which the West (this time, looks like, without delay) ready to provide Ukraine; Considering, that all movements of the armed forces of the Russian Federation today are monitored in real time, obviously, that no blitzkrieg will work. The protracted and bloody war with the "brotherly" country is definitely not the same, what would the Kremlin strategists want.

Attempts to create new "people's republics" on the territory of Ukraine, as part of the notorious "hybrid war", this time, likely, will be suppressed by Kiev very quickly. Yes, it is difficult to imagine now - buses with strong young people with "St. George's" ribbons from somewhere in Belgorod were possible only in conditions 2014 of the year. Now the Ukrainian-Russian border is tightly closed.

At all, a big war with Ukraine carries the danger of, that she can go the scenario of the Korean War. remind, how it was then. AT 1945 year, the United States and the USSR agreed to divide Korea approximately in half - by 38 parallels. In June 1950 North Korean troops, under cover of artillery, crossed the border and attacked the South. By August, with the support of Soviet troops, the North Koreans had captured 90% South Korea. However, the Americans pulled up from Japan and launched an offensive., taking back Seoul and even capturing Pyongyang. China's entry into the war made this war even more bloody and prolonged, however, its result was as follows, that after three years of fierce fighting, the borders of North and South Korea were actually fixed at the pre-war level, on the same 38 parallels.

Something similar could happen as a result of a possible Russian-Ukrainian war.. At its end, the borders of Ukraine can be restored as of 27 February 2014 of the year. And here it is important to consider, that all the successes of the current government for the majority of Russians today boil down mainly to territorial acquisitions. So that, if the borders roll back again, and even as a result of losing a bloody war, this will be a severe blow to Putin's prestige in Russia itself, and even among his closest entourage.

In addition, there is one more technical point. If you start a war in May-June, it is obvious, would have to postpone the elections to the State Duma for an indefinite period. However, one must understand, that the mass demonstrations of Russians "in support of Navalny" were largely caused by, including, resetting presidential terms in summer 2020 of the year. The protest, then postponed due to the pandemic, broke out in January-February 2021 of the year. Cancellation of parliamentary elections would be another step towards concentrating power in the hands of the president, which would not add to his popularity, and even against the backdrop of a big war.

Finally, the most recent argument against war. History shows, that the authoritarian rulers of 20th century Europe, eg, Generalissimo Franco in Spain or Antonio de Salazar in Portugal, who ruled their countries for decades, before his death, did not engage in external expansion. And vice versa. The term of those, who attacked neighbors, trying to restore the greatness of the former empires, ended much earlier.

So the dilemma, which Putin is facing today, actually boils down to the following: or lifetime reign, or war.

Alexander the Great

Published: World View Source

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