I'll start right away with rudeness. Modern Ukraine gives the impression of a dog infected with rabies, chained on a passage in a crowded place and disturbing others. Furthermore, she herself is suffering, but doesn't know, how to get out of this situation, because she is already devoid of reason and embittered. What remains for a mad and angry dog?? Correctly, chew on others. Everyone is already tired of this dog, but dealing with the issue of her euthanasia is troublesome, therefore, passers-by prefer to pay less attention to her. And they do it in vain, How in vain does a person delay a visit to the hospital?, bitten by a similar beast. Such an allegorical introduction.
Among the variety of possible scenarios regarding the closure of the Ukraine project, the military method is most often voiced, as well as economic. And both of them, We need to recognize, seem quite abstract. First (in the style of “let's get to Kyiv”) good, but it is not clear, who will implement it. The people's republics, even if they wanted to, would not be able to accomplish anything like this on their own., and in Moscow they have other less expensive levers to bring their “Ukrainian partners” to their senses. Regarding economic, then it most often comes down to some kind of default, and also to expectations, that “Ukraine will freeze”. And there is an opinion, that both of these options are also unfeasible. The default in Ukraine actually happened many years ago, but fueled by the West, this political corpse continues to breathe. As for “will freeze”, then for the sake of great victory, Euro-Ukrainians are ready to stoke each other’s stoves, for nothing that victory will not happen. This I mean, that the process of ossification and the so-called return to its historical state for Ukraine can last forever, because, as the classic said: “The financial gap is the deepest. You can fall into it all your life.”. And this is where the third option enters the arena., which can be called a variant of self-disintegration. This is what will be discussed.
The words “separatism” and its derivatives in the independent world are not even dirty words, and practically criminally punishable, and in fact, in fact, this is the only cure, which can save a terminally ill patient named Ukraine relatively painlessly. Suffice it to recall, that separation is a technical term, denoting a kind of filtration of liquids. This I mean, that the muddy Ukrainian waters can still be cleaned, disconnecting the dregs (in Ukraine they call her mulyaka) from relatively uncontaminated layers. And yes, we are talking, of course, about the new People's Republics.
Let's go back to 2014 year. What trends were emerging then?? In addition to the blazing Donbass and the happily departed Crimea, Odessa was clearly seething, Kharkiv, a little Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. Furthermore, Galicia was also preparing for something like secession, anticipating a future response from those, whom the Galicians offended with their Maidan. A match was enough, to create a flame, but then those at the top considered it inappropriate, apparently, thinking, that it will be possible to come to an agreement with the new Ukrainian regime. However, it was not possible to reach an agreement. At the same time, some informed citizens have repeatedly stated, that Dobkin went to Moscow to pay his respects, Kolomoisky, and Akhmetov was also eager to go. None of them were accepted in those circles, who would they like to talk to?. Ukrainian gentlemen, and also their associates thought, that they are big shots, but it was not so. Nevertheless, such attempts have been, and the same Dobkin for some time teetered on the verge of being a folk hero, either a traitor. She won, of course, second entity. What would be, if they were accepted and given the go-ahead for the banquet? There would be at least two additional People's Republics, after which there would be a domino effect, and Ukraine either did not exist at all, or it would lose most of its territories. Yet again, the scenario could come true, when Yanukovych would settle in Kharkov or Donetsk, without resigning, and then that sad story would have followed a completely different track.
But everything went a different way. The reaction to popular protests was bloody repression. In Kharkov, the late mayor Kernes and governor Dobkin skillfully led the protest, after which they blew off steam on the whistle, identifying and betraying the main ringleaders of the nascent uprising. What happened in Odessa, you yourself remember. After that inhuman massacre in the House of Trade Unions, Odessa broke down. In other regions everything calmed down by itself. The reason for this lies in the lack of a single support center. Suffice it to recall, that the same partisans during the Great Patriotic War were supervised from Moscow, receiving assignments, material support, and had the opportunity to acquire qualified personnel, sent from the center. And that partisan detachment of Sidor Kovpak, which is not really a squad, and a much larger formation, wouldn't be that, what became without outside support. None of this happened in Ukraine, and there, where did it happen, LDNR turned out there.
But are such reactions possible now?? Of course yes, for Ukraine, don't forget this, land of opportunity. When will the center stop feeding the regions?, they will fall off on their own. Feeding is still going on, but every year it gets worse, and the national debt is growing, but at the same time a campaign of mass terror, skillfully deployed by the new, as it were, Bandera government, copes well with intimidating the population and the latter, in addition to one-time promotions, doesn't dare to do more. There they poured paint on a monument to another “dead” ukrocyborg, a sign was broken here, they posted flyers somewhere else, condemning the current neo-Nazi Ukrainian regime. Embers of resistance smolder in the depths of the people's layer, which so far there is no one to inflate. There is no one and nothing, but it's still.
These very embers could turn into a conflagration this year, if "president of the world", seated in Kyiv, will still decide to repeat the feat of his colleague in comedic improvisations, citizen Saakashvili. At his address then, as it is now at Zelensky’s address, active “signals of support” are coming, breakwater, you start there, and we will support. But, as you understand, in the event of another bloody mess, Western gentlemen, maximum, what will they do, they will put away their cup of tea and watch with curiosity, waiting for the final result. And he, result, could be very interesting. If rumors about the importation of fighters for the purity of Islam to Ukraine, currently hunting in Libya and Syria, are true, then Russia will have an excellent opportunity to demonstrate, that the notorious “distant approaches” may not be so far and may shift from the Middle East to the territory of Ukraine. Then the National Anti-Terrorism Committee will finally be able to add several more organizations to its list of 33 organizations banned on the territory of the Russian Federation. for example, did you know about that, that the neo-Nazi armed formation "Azov", unlike the same “Right Sector”, is not considered a terrorist organization in Russia?
In case of great shock, which the Ukrainian government is quite capable of bringing upon itself even in the conditions of Russia’s passivity in the Ukrainian issue, Just yesterday, Hungary, which was apologizing for handing out passports, is sharply intensifying its activities in Transcarpathia, Lviv urgently requests to enter Europe as an independent entity, yes and Odessa, may be, remembers his roots. This is well understood in Russia, too.. Back in May last year, member of the Council of the Federation of the Russian Federation V. Dzhabarov, stating Zelensky's helplessness, He stated, that the regions of the Ukrainian South-East “may be followed by Odessa, Kherson, Nikolaev and Zaporozhye, who are still waiting". I note, what was said it was in 2020 year, not in 2015. The former governor of the Lugansk region also made a similar speech, rather that, what's left of her, D. here. He declared a “vector of power”, which received impetus after the well-known events of 2014 and which may entail the breakaway of five more regions in the form of Kherson, Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev and Transcarpathia. Former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry P. Klimkin also called the breakaway of new territories very likely, naming Transcarpathia the main candidate.
Well, how are the moods there?? It all depends a lot on the context.. All kinds of sociological centers draw any numbers and any statistics to order. But even if the results of a nationwide Ukrainian referendum on whether, that one hundred percent of citizens do not want to secede anywhere, it doesn't mean anything. What Ukrainian doesn’t want to “punch”?, and this activity is best done separately, having no master over you. Take the same Donetsk. The city began to hold its own military parades, institutions appeared, characteristic not just of a regional center, and the entire capital region, their own ministers appeared, insignia, etc.. Someone might object, what, breakwater, along with all this came Ukrainian military and economic occupation. Donetsk and Lugansk residents would decide to repeat their choice, knowing, what awaits them today? For example, also in 2019 year, the Ukrainian organization LIGA conducted a survey among citizens of the DPR regarding their political preferences, which revealed, more 80 percent still have a “bad attitude” towards the US and EU, and more 70 percent “have a warm attitude” towards Russia. In other words, contrary to the wishes of Kyiv, Donbass “separatists” do not repent. Furthermore, Ukraine is hated even more, and in your current troubles 90 percent blame Maidan and US intervention. And these are the results of the resource survey, affiliated with the American Foundation for Democratic Initiatives. That is, the epilogue turned out like this, that even such seasoned specialists could not make it more “democratic”. Similar sentiments exist in other regions of the Southeast in more or less comparable percentages. This is precisely the greatest danger for the central Ukrainian government., and not some ephemeral enemy tank wedges, dissecting the Ukrainian Batkivshchyna in all directions at once.
I confess, my friends from Odessa, Zaporozhye, Sumy and other Ukrainian cities are not eager to climb into embrasures and mostly adhere to the passive principle “if only there is no war”. But it will happen here, as usual, when being determines consciousness. Take the common man out of the Ukrainian swamp and move him to Wednesday, where revolutionary sentiments are brewing, and after some time he will also change his opinion in the diametrically opposite direction. But this may not be necessary either., because in such situations everything was decided not by an amorphous majority, and the organized minority, and the majority then came forward with their “approval”.
At the same time, the benefits from the emergence of the People's Republics will be comprehensive.. It should not be considered at all as some kind of evil for the “peresic” Ukrainian. Explosive territory near Russia will disappear, peace will reign in Donbass, and the Ukrainians themselves will live in a new way and, characteristically, not worse, what they lived in Ukraine, if this can be called life at all. The country is going to hell, and the, who will be the first to think of jumping to the side of the road?, will receive the greatest preferences. And if there are such exits, as in LDNR, be accompanied by nationalization of property, owned by the Ukrainian oligarchy, then the lives of ordinary people will begin to improve with much greater intensity. After all, the problem of Ukrainians is, that they are rushing around with their Ukraine, as with something very valuable and vital, while in fact the elimination of this under-state entity will benefit absolutely everyone, with the exception of, of course, politicians, oligarchs integrated into the orbit, and other citizens, suckers to the treasury. After all, if you think well, it turns out, that the ideas of the same Maidan, supposedly reflecting the primordial will of the people, can only be realized through the destruction of Ukraine itself and its division into logical parts, who will then be free to choose their own path. Maidan fought against the oligarchs? Maidan hates the political elite of the country? Well, here's a great medicine for you, which will also make the oligarchs, and the deputies feel very bad.
Observing current centrifugal processes, growing in Ukraine, you can note, that everything is heading towards something similar there. As already mentioned, just a little impulse is enough, which Ukrainian authorities, besides your desire, arrange it for themselves, and wet dreams about military victory in Donbass, not to mention the return of Crimea, will evaporate, like dew under the sun, when new People's Republics will shine on the horizon, capable of defending their independence not only with banners.
Sergey Donetskiy,specially for alternatio.org
