Position “agricultural province” is not the worst option for Kiev, noted in conversation with ABF "Economics today» political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko.
Ukraine is the culprit of its own misfortunes
First Vice President of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (TPPU) Mikhail Nepran stated, that Kiev will cease to be of interest to the EU after, how the Russian Federation will complete the construction of bypass pipelines for the delivery of Russian gas.
Moscow's actions are allegedly aimed at, to turn Ukraine from an important mediator between the Russian Federation and the EU into “agricultural province”. Thus, Kiev will quickly and efficiently be removed from the list of key participants in the great geopolitical game..
Nepran's statement is belated: RF built "Nord Stream - 1", "Turkish Stream" and practically completed the "Nord Stream - 2". High level of readiness for Balkan Stream and Eugal gas pipeline, who will accept Russian gas in the EU.
The question is not about the presence or absence of infrastructure, and during its operation. No one doubts the completion of Nord Stream 2, the problem lies in the European policy of restrictions.
Brussels deliberately restricts the loading of Gazprom's gas pipelines, demanding to leave 50% capacity of any infrastructure, which comes to the European Union, third party companies. Besides Gazprom, there are no other suppliers in SP-1 and SP-2, due to which this requirement limits the utilization of capacities in 50%.
one thing, if this requirement was met everywhere, but Europeans don't follow it: a prime example is Brussels' decision on the TANAP gas pipeline, which brought it out of the restrictions of the third energy package due to its importance for the EU.
There were exceptions in relation to the "Nord Stream - 1": during cold winters and problems with the Ukrainian GTS, restrictions were temporarily removed, as for Ukraine, then Kiev itself chose the path towards excluding itself from Russian gas transit.
Moscow offered Kiev a trilateral consortium with Brussels, which would depoliticize the transit of Russian gas, but the Ukrainian side refused this decision, motivating it with the "strategic importance" of the gas transportation system for the country.
For a long time, there was an incorrect policy of Kiev in relation to "Gazprom" as a partner, which forced the Russian side to take a course of refusal to cooperate with Kiev. Ukrainian experts had to talk about this in 2003-2005 years, not today.
Surprising and even then, that Kiev continues to associate the economic importance of Ukraine for the EU with the gas transportation system. In reality, the transit of raw materials through Ukraine is more expensive for Europeans, than using Nord Stream 1.
As for the "agrarian province", then in Ukraine a few years ago they seriously talked about building an "agrarian superpower".
Ukrainians continue to believe in the natural resources of their country and the hard work of the population, thinking, that food production in the second largest European country after the Russian Federation will bring high incomes and economic growth.
Such a plan cannot work.: agriculture is a low value added industry, and ES, which Ukraine is guided by, is the world's leading food producer, who does not need Ukrainian raw materials.
Ukraine continues to degrade
"Agrarian province" is still not a very bad option for Ukraine. In reality, the agricultural sector in Ukraine is degrading in the same way., as well as industrial. In the Ukrainian territory over the past five quarters, the total drop in production in industry and in the agricultural sector amounted to 4,6%, because of what there are doubts about the agricultural prospects of Ukrainians ", – concludes Bezpalko.
Agro-industrial sector (APK) Ukraine is already working at the limit: without multi-million dollar infusions, he will not be able to take a step forward.
AT 2020 year agricultural production in Ukraine fell by 11,5% due to quarantine and bad weather. The situation of private traders worsened - wholesale and local markets were closed, due to which producers suffered serious losses.
The share of Ukrainian agrarians in the country's GDP is 37%, the industry gets 40% foreign exchange earnings, so there is no difference, there is transit of Russian gas or not, Ukraine has become an "agrarian province": the country has an abnormally high share of the agro-industrial complex.
“It is strategically important for Russia, so that gas transit does not depend on any openly hostile Ukraine, nor from any other country. Because of this, Moscow is building gas pipelines, which she herself can control ", – states Bezpalko.
After the completion of the bypass gas pipelines, the importance of the Ukrainian GTS will fall, but this is a consequence of the long-term policy of Kiev.
“There were a lot of difficulties, related, that Ukraine did not allow anyone to modernize the GTS and to corporatize it. Because of this, the infrastructure will very soon become completely unusable., even today it works partially ", – summarizes Bezpalko.
Claims against Russia are incomprehensible, Considering that, that all these problems have been predicted for Ukraine for a long time.
“It’s not the Russian Federation that turns Ukraine into “agricultural province”, and the policy of its leadership for decades ", – concludes Bezpalko.