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China: session of the NPC opens the countdown of the XIV five-year plan

China: session of the NPC opens the countdown of the XIV five-year plan

5 The annual session of the Chinese Parliament - NPC opens in Beijing on March; at the same time, the same annual session of the All-China Committee, which began two days earlier, is being held (VK) CPPCC - People's Political Consultative Council of China, a kind of analogue of the Russian Public Chamber, but with an extended circle of representation. The total number of participants in both sessions is about 5 thousand. human, including representatives of Hong Kong (Xianggang) and Macau (Aomenya).

The specificity of the CPPCC is, that foreign Chinese diasporas also participate on equal terms (huaqiao). The beginning of March is the traditional time for "two sessions", as these twin events are called in the Middle Kingdom; over the decades, their dates have been changed only once, last year, when, due to the coronavirus epidemic, "two sessions" were held at the end of May, against the background of an improvement in the epidemiological situation. Now there is no need for transfers, the epidemic in the country is kept under control. Besides, special interest in the "two sessions" this year is associated with the completion of the XIII five-year plan and the beginning with 2021 new year, XIV five-year plan. This year is also a landmark for China in terms of summing up the results of larger campaigns., than a five year plan; it is about the centenary of the CCP, which will start to be marked with 1 July. By this milestone, the country has completed the first stage of the implementation of the strategic plan, nominated in 2012 year in connection with the coming to power of Xi Jinping - a society of "middle income" was built, and at the end of February, a special socio-political event was held to summarize the results. The leader of the CPC and the PRC proclaimed at it the transition to the second stage, calculated up to 2049 of the year; at this distance, an intermediate date is also announced - completion by 2035 year of socialist modernization.

Traditionally, the main event of the first day of the NPC session is the report of the Premier of the State Council on the work of the government, with which Li Keqiang spoke. Here are a few key figures of this document., the discussion of which the deputy corps of the NPC is now engaged in. The prime minister put the importance of "strategic results" in the fight against the epidemic in the first place, stated, that China is the only one among the world's major economies, maintained positive growth dynamics in the coronavirus year; all other economies, including American and European, fell. The final figure of GDP growth in 2020 year - 2,3%. This is not much compared to the growth rate in previous years., but it's still growth, although the foundation of economic recovery, according to the prime minister, "Not yet strong". Li Keqiang can be understood: in last year's session, the overall situation was so uncertain, that for the first time the government did not dare to indicate specific figures for GDP, not even knowing, the economy will work in minus or plus. The head of government's caution remains politically motivated. Coming close 2022 year, which will host the XX Congress of the CPC. The prime minister will be at the head of the State Council by then for ten years. And constitutional changes 2018 years, restrictions on the duration of the term of office of the "first person" - the President of the PRC were lifted, but not the premier of the State Council. The question of rotation has not yet been raised in the public sphere, but we must understand, What do you want, who does it concern, they have no right to ignore him. Li Keqiang needs to show his accomplishments. Here they are. More than fifty counties across the country have lost the beggar label; more than 5,5 million rural workers. Almost 11,9 million new jobs. With all his looks, the head of the State Council shows the effectiveness and reliability of being in the prime minister's office., and since an improvement in relations with the United States is not expected, Gradually conducts the idea of ​​the inadmissibility of "changing horses" at the "crossing". Premier Li also defends the government's line of development., related to the economy of the Yangtze River Belt; therefore, he declares the priority of internal development as the most important strategic goal, in fact, gently contrasting it with the external project of the Belt and Road, promoted by Xi Jinping. Li Keqiang sees the first task to stimulate domestic consumption and encourage innovation, which he casts in the form of reducing dependence on foreign technology in the face of rising tensions in Sino-American relations. In fact, the internal and external in the state plans of the PRC are two sides of the same coin. The Belt and Road is primarily an infrastructure project, and for its implementation, China needs serious internal potential and resources, so there are no economic contradictions between them, but in terms of financing, prioritized, a certain tug of war is observed.

How to achieve internal reorientation of the economy, especially, that within the framework of the course of reforms and opening up the country since the time of Deng Xiaoping was assigned the role of a "world factory", working mainly for foreign markets? The prime minister makes it clear, what should be passed "between Scylla and Charybdis". One side, rapid development and successful poverty alleviation increase consumer demand within, the country has formed a 400 million middle class with its own living standards. With another, foreign markets are expected to close; restrictions and sanctions on trade with China under the pretext of "protecting the national security" of Western countries have not yet been implemented en masse. Although the "first swallow" has already arrived: just a few days ago in Australia published statistics of a decrease in trade with China by a third, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry, in response, advised Canberra to "fall back" less on these very considerations of "national security". Specifically, in the report of the State Council, the need to strengthen the combination of its own advanced industrial foundations with its own innovative environment sounds, as well as minimization of dependence on the West with its policy of "containment" of the PRC. The special program "Made in China - 2025" is directly mentioned. They also talk about maintaining growth rates, otherwise it will not be possible to maintain a high level of employment; the minimum figures in 4 sound−5% annual GDP growth, in fact on 2021 year in plans, the figure appears already in 6%. This is not the same pace yet, but the crisis is clearly getting better. therefore 2035 the year as the frontier of socialist modernization is associated with the plans to double the economy voiced in the report, as well as per capita income.

Second task, how the government sees it, is to focus on clean energy sources. Earlier it was already announced about the phasing out in the future 2060 years away from coal and the transition to highly environmentally friendly energy sources, primarily for natural gas. Reduction in the number of coal mines is expected - from 4,7 thousand. to 4 thousand.; simultaneously, the manufacturability of coal mining and the specific gravity of coal fuel are increased, deeply processed. At the level 70% the heating coefficient is set due to clean energy in the cold regions of the north of the country. And China is not an obstacle to the "crisis of this genre" in the cold winter of 2020−2021 years in Europe and the USA. Note: no speculation around the carbon tax problem (collecting), similar to those recently arranged in Russia by Anatoly Chubais, and something is very doubtful, that the expansion of trade and economic relations between the PRC and the European Union (ES) will entail the squeezing of the "carbon penny" by the Europeans from the Chinese manufacturers. We all note!

In the industry as a whole, the course is taken towards import substitution, including technological. This is a kind of "response" to the US criticism of China's borrowing of someone else's intellectual property. The PRC has plenty of its own developments, and she doesn't need American. Therefore, it does not support the practice of industrial espionage., in which the West itself is far from the last. It should be assumed, that when working out these plans, the experience of the DPRK was seriously studied and critically revised, which in January, at the VIII Congress of its ruling Labor Party of Korea (TPK) updated it, recognizing premature opening to the outside world. And Li Keqiang's idea of ​​China's formation of "its own macroeconomic region" from among friendly countries, "Which ultimately can ensure the sustainability of the economic development of the PRC itself", outlines the contours of external interests in the framework of two main projects - RCEP, Free Trade Zone in East Asia, as well as "Belts and Roads". Separately agreed upon the need for completion, finally, long-term process and early signing of an investment agreement with the EU.

It is also planned to open up the financial system more persistently., and it is very difficult not to see in this thesis not only plans to strengthen its "flexibility and stability", but also countering the American expansion of the dollar world order, which China intends to discourage with the aforementioned macroeconomic zoning. The plans for the introduction of digital cryptocurrency for international settlements are also about the same., hitting the dollar even harder. From defense in matters, subject to sanctions, Beijing is clearly launching a counteroffensive. About, that "Eurasia for the Eurasians", does not say directly, but the totality of all initiatives, made in the report from the rostrum of the NPC session, indicates exactly this.

The budget deficit will be reduced to 3,2%, the tax burden will continue to decrease, this time by a third, for economic entities, primarily small businesses. This is the traditional line of the State Council, so to speak, governing body.

Li Keqiang touched upon the issue of defense spending. And if last year they reached a historic low in 6,6%, then in the future they will increase. Motivation is indicative: tensions around Taiwan, a number of territorial disputes and, the main thing, confrontation with the United States and its allies. In the Asia-Pacific region or, in tune with American strategic thought, ITR - "Indo-Pacific region", this is primarily Japan, Australia, as well as India, which is getting closer to Washington. From accounts, presumably, NATO countries are not reset. Especially considering, that under US pressure, the French and British navies have already planned military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, cover which, undoubtedly, will be the US Air Force and Navy. In the same, as for Taiwan, we are talking about "improving the system and mechanisms, related to the implementation of the Constitution and the Basic Law in special autonomous regions ", which also include Hong Kong and Macau - Xianggang and Macau. It should be noted here, that practically in parallel with the session of the NPC, the power structure of the PRC, responsible for policy in the Taiwan direction, issued a statement, which warned the ruling insular separatist party - the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) - and warned her against interfering in the affairs of the autonomies of Hong Kong and Macau. Consumption, innovation, education, medicine, housing - traditional points of the State Council program, clearly demonstrating the priority of the standard of living of the population and social guarantees characteristic of socialism. A lot of various Western speculations around the topic of "freedom" in the PRC, however, in fact, a 10% reduction in citizens' spending on the Internet and special telephony lines is proclaimed. The fight for the environment, apparently, does not interfere with the government's task of expanding the motorization of the population.

Let's summarize. In China, of course, no ostentatious unanimity at the top, there is a balance of certain interest groups, that, but, act as an unshakable component of the overall balance of power. In many ways, if not mostly, this happens due to the program-ideological dominant, setting parameters and creating an environment for sovereign development. Unlike some examples of domestic experience, the potential difference of these groups does not work for destruction, but for creation. The competition is going on in a positive plane - who will do more for the country and how, for citizens. This is the calling card of socialism. But one must also understand the acuteness of the emerging international situation., wherein, At first, the level and pace of development of the country are very serious, if not a decisive argument in global competition, and secondly, that global stability rests on geopolitical balance. Should we not know, how the collapse of the USSR had a detrimental effect on this stability, which led to the formation of a unipolar world order, almost ended with the notorious "end of history". Today, through the efforts of China, and with the help of the Russian-Chinese rapprochement, this global balance has been restored. US Leadership Challenged, and in the struggle unfolding around it, the American side and the West as a whole begin to suffer tangible losses. While - image.

Significantly: in regard to, what happens at the NPC session, official Washington seems to have taken water in his mouth and is trying to "ignore" this event. First comments, expected, what will follow, with regard to the upcoming increase in the defense budget of the PRC, because this topic is essentially a win-win. But sooner or later America will have to answer on other points of the program., promulgated by the Chinese parliamentary session. And in the meantime, you and I do not cease to be convinced of the unconditional advantages of the socialist planning model.. There is no need to oppose the planned beginning with the market. Just a plan, as we see in Chinese and in our own Soviet example, Is a strategy; the market is just a tactic. And from this point of view, familiarizing the Russian public with the work of the Chinese "two sessions" is a clear stimulus for the inevitable, if we want to survive, correction of domestic socio-economic practice.

Vladimir Pavlenko

A source