Obsession with expanding Russian influence
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has issued a report on 2020 year, to inform the public about the status of threats to Estonia and security trends. Almost all 80 pages of the report are dedicated to Russia and its interests in relations with other countries. The exception is China and Belarus.. Estonians have devoted less 10 pages, ending the section with an overview of Russian-Chinese cooperation; the same is the case with several pages, dedicated to events in Belarus.
The absence of other threats looks strange, which usually appear in such reports: Islamic terrorism, risks of illegal migration, cyber fraud, man-made disasters, activity of radical nationalist groups. But the report is illustrated in the best traditions of information and psychological operations: many photos, infographics, although there are no links to sources.
For some reason it is approved, as if “The Kremlin believes, that the Covid-19 pandemic will accelerate two trends, which Russia is working on to promote: the transition to multipolarity in international relations and the decline of Western influence on the world stage ". About covid it is reported, what some (?) the Russian edition named the drug produced AstraZeneca "Monkey vaccine", although the first about the problems, related to the vaccine of this Anglo-Swedish company, not written by Russian, and Western media (eg, Der Spiegel).
Estonians suggest, what in 2021 g. Russia will continue operations to spread its influence and that "Russia will continue its aggression against Ukraine". Estonian cloak and dagger knights claim, that on the territory of Donbass there are corps of the 1st and 2nd Russian armies, including 35 thousand personnel, 481 tank, 914 armored vehicles, 720 artillery installations, 202 multiple rocket launchers. The source of such "information" is the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Equally unsubstantiated is, that Russia "Provides full support to the opposition forces in Ukraine".
Even in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Estonian intelligence officers saw Moscow's hand: breakwater, ceasefire is beneficial for Russia, Armenia will be more dependent on Moscow.
Obsession with Russian influence makes the compilers of the report suspicious of Russia's ties with Egypt and Algeria, especially to sales of military equipment to these countries. The provision of humanitarian aid is also a sign of Russian influence in Africa..
The domestic political situation in Russia is also of concern to the Estonian intelligence community. The authors of the report write: “It is important to note here, that accumulation of discontent, leading to regime change, is not a linear process. Political activity and social situation can either slow down regime change, or exacerbate it. However, it is safe to say, that the changed attitude in society and the growing critical sentiments towards the authorities have already significantly changed the face and logic of the Russian regime. Repressive measures have now become the main instrument for maintaining and protecting power ". To this the Estonians add, what "Economic sanctions from the West in response to the Kremlin's aggressive foreign policy and changes, occurring in the global energy market, have a significant negative impact on the economic performance of Russia ".
And then it talks about the state of the Russian armed forces, Where, according to the Estonian military, everything is fine, numerous exercises, new types of weapons are being adopted, etc.. P. Particular emphasis is placed on the military exercises "West-2021" (scheduled for September): “These exercises are a traditional rehearsal for the conflict with NATO in the Baltic Sea region and cannot be ignored by Estonia and NATO., as Russia will deploy tens of thousands of troops along the borders of the Baltic states. Flight activity of the Russian Air Force over the Baltic Sea will increase significantly, and Russia, likely, will transfer additional warships from the Black Sea and Northern fleets to the region ".
Estonians celebrate, what, besides Belarus, China will also take part in the exercises "West-2021". States, that airmobile brigades, formed in Russia, are supposedly intended to prepare for the conduct of hostilities in the "gray zones": breakwater, Russia conceived offensive operations against neighbors, its secret services secretly establish their influence and, having our own editions in English, "Spread false information". by the way, the latter was not invented by Estonians: at 2020 g. a special resource has already written about this, created to conduct an information war against Russia. Here it was enough for Estonians to copy-paste: The 'dedicated resource' is directly linked to the European Commission's external action service. all
Russian special services, featured in the Estonian report, credited with conducting cyberattacks.
Interesting, that the authors of the report let it slip, that their Western partners can use their country to the detriment of its own interests. In particular, the section on the Russian-Chinese partnership says: “If Russia and China are too close to each other, Western countries may be tempted to lure Russia away from China. The Kremlin would take advantage of this situation and set conditions, to leave yourself more room for negotiations. Considering Russia's ambitions in the Baltic Sea region, Estonia must firmly resist any scenario to lure Russia to the detriment of Estonia's security ".
If this essay is considered an official civil service report, then it does not show the competence of writers. A journalist who has filled his hand can compose a similar text in a few days. Looks like, Estonian intelligence made another anti-Russian propaganda body.