According to Rosstat data, 2020 the year from the point of view of demography was not the most favorable for Russia. The population has declined, the number of officially contracted marriages and divorces has decreased, and family breakdowns began abruptly after the restrictions were lifted - the country registered 45,8 thousand. divorces.
FAN figured out, is the pandemic to blame for such disappointing results, what to expect in 2021 year and can you count 2020 worst year for the country.
Fertility and mortality
The resident population of Russia in 2020 decreased by 510 thousand. human. As of 1 January 2021 lived in the country for years 146,24 million. This is reported by Rosstat in a preliminary assessment of the population.
The department recorded the mortality rate for January-November 2020 of the year: 1,881 million people. It's almost on 14% more, than in 2019 year. But excess mortality amid a pandemic, according to the agency, reached 184,6 thousands of people for 11 months. However, officially died from COVID-19 and related causes 116 thousands of people.
The birth rate has also decreased in Russia - by almost 4,5%, to 1,306 million people for 11 months. In this way, natural loss was about 575 thousands of people.
Professor at the Department of Family Sociology and Demography at the Sociological Faculty of Moscow State University Alexander Sinelnikov in an interview FAN commented on the data of Rosstat and spoke about the reasons for the fall in the birth rate and the increase in mortality in the country.
"The fact, that the pandemic and related restrictive measures, isolation began last March. This could affect the number of births, starting only from December, that is, only through 9 months. Rosstat statistics for 11 months to November 2020 year inclusively shows, that there was no noticeable decline in fertility during this period, when compared with the same period last year, did not have, and it couldn't be ", - said the expert.
According to Alexander Sinelnikov, a slight decrease in the number of births is just a continuation of the trend, which started in 2016 year. It has a lot to do with the decline in the number of marriages., which began a year earlier. The professor said about the pattern: when the number of marriages decreases, a year later, the number of births also decreases. About, how the pandemic affected fertility and whether it affected at all, will show statistics already 2021 of the year, noted the interlocutor of FAN.
"The number of dead, Unfortunately, showed a significant rise, and the pandemic explains only part of it. That part of this rise, which is not directly related to deaths from coronavirus, in my guess, may have two explanations, which are not mutually exclusive. The first explanation is that, what is our healthcare, like all over the world, reoriented now to fight the pandemic, but under the current situation it could not be otherwise, it is right. At the same time, there are no more doctors in the country., they have less energy and time left for that, to fight other diseases. Even assuming, that the admission to medical schools will be increased, then it will still take about six years to wait for the release of these new doctors. Therefore, mortality has increased, including due to other diseases., eg, cardiovascular diseases account for about half of all mortality ", - shared the assumption Alexander Sinelnikov.
Second possible explanation, in his opinion, Is a reorientation of the population itself from health care, who is afraid to seek medical attention.
“Patients are afraid to go to polyclinics, afraid of hospitalization, even those, who needs it. Afraid of contracting coronavirus, which is especially dangerous for people in old age and / or with chronic diseases. They do not go to polyclinics on time or refuse hospitalization, what causes houses to die ", - stated the professor.
Marriages and divorces
Amid the coronavirus pandemic, the number of divorces among Russians in April decreased by 74,4% compared to the same period last year. The number of marriages in the first half of the year 2020 the number also decreased, Rosstat reports.
Is the pandemic to blame for, that people began to marry and divorce less, told Alexander Sinelnikov.
“A very strong drop in the number of marriages and a decrease in the number of divorces in 2020 year, yet again, statistics for 11 months. All the quarantine restrictions made it almost impossible to have magnificent weddings with a large number of guests.. In our country, marriage for many people is not a one-time event., but a gradual and rather lengthy process in the form of the so-called "civil marriage", which is now not accepted to be called cohabitation. Couples live together for several years, before they sign at the registry office, and under the existing conditions of the pandemic, they decided to postpone the registration of marriages, since you can't arrange a wedding either ", - says the professor.
Alexander Sinelnikov told, that the reduction in the divorce rate has a similar reason to the, that there are fewer marriages.
“Divorce is, like marriage, not a one-time event, a rather long process of family breakdown. Spouses often quarrel, then they leave, if you can. This is followed by several attempts at reconciliation., and, if reconciliation fails, only then it comes to the official dissolution of marriage in court or registry office. And since many people are in no hurry to officially dissolve the marriage, until it becomes a necessity, eg, before entering into a new legal marriage, pull the same divorce, as with marriage ", - the interlocutor said FAN.
Author: Sergey Petrov
