Russian leaders, Armenia and Azerbaijan met 11 January in Moscow to make strategic decisions - to agree on the final unblocking of transport routes in the Transcaucasus. And although only a declarative document was signed as a result - a joint statement Vladimir Putin, Ilham Aliyev and Nikola Pashinyan, the meeting unequivocally launches new processes of transformation of the region.
The South Wind Telegram channel conducts an operational analysis of the results of negotiations and draws a conclusion, what 2021 the year will again bring changes to the Transcaucasus.
Training in Sochi and the work of special services
The first reports of the planned meeting of the three leaders began to appear at the end of 2020 of the year, but at the same time, official departments did not confirm. Then a meeting of Turkish foreign ministers was held in Sochi Mevlut Cavusoglu and Russia Sergei Lavrov for "synchronizing watches" in Nagorno-Karabakh.
???? #Live: Russian Foreign Minister S.V. Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister M. Cavusoglu hold a joint press conference following the talks in #Sochi. #RussiaTurkey ???????????????? https://t.co/VyMlIZSlVm
- Russian Foreign Ministry ???????? (@MID_RF) December 29, 2020
After that, a set of additional measures was taken to strengthen security in the region., especially in border areas.
30 December, a meeting of the Director of the FSB took place in Moscow Alexandra Bortnikova with Armenian and Azerbaijani colleagues Armen Abazyan and Ali Nagiev.
And for the new year, 31 December, Turkish Minister of Defense visited Azerbaijan Xulusi Akar, who oversees security issues in the region by Ankara.
This was followed by the first days 2021 years in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were devoted to settling the last issues of border demarcation. At the same time, a considerable part of the work was assigned to the Border Guard Service of the FSB of Russia., which now monitors the border of Armenia and with Turkey, and with Azerbaijan.
The final point was set after the meeting of the heads of the special services of Armenia and Azerbaijan 8 and 10 January in the neutral zone, neighboring with Yeraskh community of Ararat region, and on the territory of the settlements of Vorotan and Shurnukh of the Gori community of the Syunik region, during which the issues of the exchange of prisoners and work to search for missing persons were once again discussed, but the main thing is the order of crossing the border.
⚡️Director of the National Security Service of Armenia Armen Abazyan held a working meeting with the head of the State Security Service Ali Nagiyev. This was reported by the press center of the NSS of Armenia on Saturday..
— Semyon Pegov (@wargonzoo) January 9, 2021
In this way, the absence of excesses and provocations allowed the leaders of the countries to agree on a personal meeting, to discuss and make further key decisions on the development of the situation in the region.
Satisfied Aliyev and shaved Pashinyan
The greatest activity in the information space regarding the meeting, certainly, showed the Armenian side.
Various media were full of messages, that Pashinyan is again going to sign a killer agreement for Yerevan. Some protesters were going to block the road to the airport altogether, not to let the prime minister on the plane.
opposition leader Vazgen Manukyan He stated, that the documents signed by Pashinyan will be immediately canceled after the new government comes to power in Armenia.
Vazgen Manukyan: Onik Gasparyan and Armen Abazyan avoided meeting, which deepened our suspicions and concerns
We warn all parties to the alleged agreement that, that Nikol Pashinyan does not represent Armenia and Artsakh, he doesn't have...
More on https://t.co/0jrunaUaFu pic.twitter.com/3gpDCdDtfq- IC “Erkramas” (@Yerkramas) January 10, 2021
Nevertheless, the meeting took place according to the schedule and lasted quite an impressive time - about four hours.
Vladimir Putin first met with colleagues at the same table, and then held a personal meeting with each leader.
The most important result was the publication of a joint statement, where the parties confirmed the successful implementation of the tripartite agreement dated 9 November and pledged to activate the implementation of paragraph "9" on the unblocking of transport routes in the Transcaucasus.
Tight deadlines set - already before 30 January the first meeting of the Russian working group will be held, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the development of Nagorno-Karabakh, and to 1 March, a detailed roadmap of events should be presented.
Trilateral statement Putin-Pashinyan-Aliyev
Spitnik Armenia. pic.twitter.com/sI2VOkDTVJ— Diana Yayloyan (@Diana_Yayloyan) January 11, 2021
Hypothetically, a win-win situation for each side, which will create conditions for the growth of national economies, hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic and fighting.
Talking about connecting other countries, obviously, what did the Russian president mean Iran. Launch of a branch line from Julfa, once the largest junction station, fundamentally changes the role of the railway line for Armenia. Because in addition to cargo, traveling from Iran to Armenia, loads appear, sent in transit from Iran through Armenia to the Black Sea ports. In this scenario, Armenia begins to play the role of a transit country.
Turkey lobbying for another British project?
In the context of the future unblocking of transport routes through Armenia, one moment is very interesting - back in 2014 The European Union and the British organization Conflict Pool funded a study on the potential restoration of the Kars-Gyumri-Nakhichevan-Meghri-Baku rail link. It names the conflict potential of the South Caucasus as the main problem., as well as indicated, that the project itself is economically beneficial for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, therefore can help a peaceful settlement.
And now, four years later, Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia, and two years later, the solution to the conflict moved from the “dead point”, and the parties started talking about restoring trade routes.
According to the fund's estimates, which were held six years ago, the cost of restoring the railway communication should be 430 million US dollars, and the payback period is 10-12 years, what is considered a good indicator.
Russia's strategic move for the future
For Russia, in addition to active participation in the implementation of all transport projects, there is another positive moment - conditions are being created for the isolation of Georgia.
The connection of the railway networks of Russia and Turkey actually devalues the road through Upper Lars, and also in the future will reduce freight traffic through the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway, construction of which was financed by Georgia at the expense of a loan from Azerbaijan.
Very important, that this is happening against the backdrop of the actual departure from the politics of the shadow leader of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili, which is most likely the result of behind-the-scenes agreements with the opposition, which was really looking forward to the arrival of Biden and in every possible way blocked the activities of the new parliament.
Georgia. Bidzina Ivanishvili reported, that leaves big politics in order to, to return to the way of life before 2011 pic.twitter.com/kOufriI3h7
- Iskander 13 (@13iskander131) January 11, 2021
In this way, in addition to stabilizing Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the agreements reached are also a strong pre-emptive move in the fight against radical forces, who want to come to power in Tbilisi. Furthermore, in the context of rail transit development, a serious reason will be created for Georgia to think about allowing the passage of goods through the territory of Abkhazia. Given the desire of Moscow and Ankara to build synergistic projects, this option will certainly be considered..
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Author: South wind
