Ruble volatility in 2021 year will be lower, than in the past, Russian economists believe. They expect, that this year the course will develop according to one of two scenarios.
As the professor of the Higher School of Economics Yevgeny Kogan told, by the end of this year, the dollar will cost around 78-80 rubles. If the external economic environment improves, the ruble may strengthen up to 71-73 units, the economist thinks.
The ruble is expected to strengthen against the background of the projected increase in global demand for oil and risky assets, noted the director of strategy of the group of companies “Finam” Yaroslav Kabakov. According to him, the value of the ruble will depend on the price of oil. If the price of a barrel of Brent by the end of the year is 45-50 dollars, then the dollar rate will be 69-72 ruble. In the event of severe sanctions or repeated long-term lockdowns, the ruble may fluctuate in the corridor from 66 to 76 units per dollar, transfers “Kommersant”.
According to Kogan, the cost of a barrel of Brent oil by the end of the year will be 61-62 dollar. However, Kabakov is less optimistic on this issue.. According to analysts, oil quotes will be in the range 47-55 dollars per barrel.