On Monday, the US Department of Commerce imposed export restrictions on 103 companies from Russia and China, armed forces, among them 45 Russian enterprises and 58 Chinese. The sanctions list includes, in particular, Irkut, "Oboronprom", Rostec, Russian Helicopters and other large enterprises of the aviation and space industries (at the same time, sanctions were imposed on the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service). The head of Roskosmos Dmitry Rogozin has already reacted very emotionally, by writing on your Facebook: “For the sake of preserving our common cause, I demand that the US government immediately lift these sanctions against our businesses.. We assume, what is this "misunderstanding". Aviation expert commented on the situation to Rosbalt Vadim Lukashevich
- Vadim Pavlovich, looks like, the matter is very serious? This will greatly slow down the development of our aerospace?
- The matter is really serious. "Strong - not strong" will slow us down, we still cannot understand exactly. There is only a list of companies, and the list of specific sanctions procedures has not yet been published. But the "general trend" is just that.
- What are we seriously dependent on Western supplies?
- There are as many as three critical areas. At first, ready-made components. On our Superjet and MC-21 aircraft, these are blocks of onboard avionics. The Superjet has a large part of the imported systems., down to the landing gear. Hot engine part - French.
Secondly, raw materials and semi-finished products. On the MS-21 composite wing. Composite materials were first foreign, but we were forbidden to sell them, we found ours - and this pushed the MS-21 certification back by one and a half to two years.
But this also includes microcircuits., and this is already especially sensitive for the space industry, because spacecraft must have radiation-resistant semiconductors and microcircuits. Not only we do not produce them, but even China. the, what we can buy on the free market is the level of consumer electronics.
AT 2011 year we lost the automatic interplanetary station "Phobos-Grunt" due to the impact of high-energy particles of cosmic rays. It means, that it had a radiation unstable element base.
- Whose, by the way?
- Chinese, as I understand. We take Chinese microcircuits, we re-stamp at the border, and they already seem to be domestic. In-line production of microcircuits, as it was during Soviet times in Zelenograd, we actually don't have.
Here's a good example. A satellite with electronics on radiation-resistant microcircuits can withstand a nuclear explosion in space at a distance of 300 km. Consumer electronics are our usual - only at a distance of three thousand km. An order of magnitude difference.
This applies primarily to geostationary satellites, which are in the radiation belts of the Earth. But here, let's, our device flies to Mars, and his resource is in 10 times less than. so, the designer must duplicate the element base or place it in lead boxes, the apparatus is much heavier.
And the third, which is practically not discussed in our media. Technologies and industrial equipment. And here we have full seams! Machine-tool industry in the Russian Federation fell to almost zero. With this and in the USSR it was not important. Remember, there was such a Jackson-Vanik amendment, it prohibited the export of technologies and equipment from the USA to the USSR. Everything else with us was still at the very least, and we often bought machines through third countries, India, etc.. d.
So that, when we talk about "our engine" (and PD-14 for MS-21 is really ours), i always ask: and on what machines is it made? What technologies? Our industry institutions, the same VIAM and NIAT, who are engaged in engines and materials science, to put it mildly, not in a shiny condition.
- You mentioned French engine parts. And in France we can buy?
- In theory - yes, but if a French company sold us something, then she will not be able to work with American partners.
- Why exactly now we are in such a disgrace? In connection with the "poisoning of Navalny"?
- It's not so funny. When in the USA journalists will find out, that the president is watching a political rival, Watergate appears, and the president resigns. And in the US, when a story about an attempt on the life of an opposition politician using poisonous substances gets into the media, which were allegedly liquidated long ago and are no longer produced, the president just laughs.
no wonder, what do they think: such "savages", like us, it is necessary to enclose and weaken already behind the fence. Sanctions are the world's last remaining international mechanism of action, punishment and coercion: the international legal mechanism is broken, and it was broken with our help. We withdrew from the International Criminal Court and from the jurisdiction of the ECHR, we cannot leave the international Olympic movement alone.
But this last tool is quite powerful.. There were three waves of sanctions 2014 of the year: for Crimea, Donbass and Malaysian Boeing. According to various estimates, these three waves give us a minus 3-4% GDP annually, it is hundreds of billions of dollars. Without them, we would have 1-1,5% growth per year, a 3-4%. Now the sanctions oppression will intensify and will put pressure on manufacturers of high-tech products.
- Which, usually, defense?
- We, of course. Superjet and Su-57 are produced at the same plant in Komsomolsk-on Amur and created in the same design bureau. "Russian Helicopters" - we have just one or two civilian helicopters. This is military aviation. Roscosmos has half the military budget. So many Soyuz launches, so many "Proton", and so many - "Bulava".
Now Rogozin wrote on social networks, what, breakwater, TsNIIMASH has to do with the defense industry? Yes, the most direct. This is a regime enterprise, head institute of the rocket and space industry. Yes, NASA representatives are present there - to work on the International Space Station program.
Well, so sanctions have a permissive mechanism - licensing. Export of parts for "Union", on which the American will fly, they will gladly give permission. But now all this is subject to control and is permissive.. Well, Americans have the right to control, what do they sell to whom - theirs.
Besides weakening our military power, there may well be competition here. We say, that MS-21 should undermine Boeing and Airbus monopoly on medium-haul passenger routes. Why do they need it? If you are so ambitious - do it yourself! If I threaten America, I should not be technologically dependent on it.
Our "Almaz-Antey" lost due to sanctions 30% export earnings last year. In connection with the Malaysian Boeing in 2015 year "Almaz-Antey" conducted experiments, to prove, that the rocket was Ukrainian and got there before the collapse of the USSR. He tried to jump out of the sanctions, filed an appeal to withdraw from them, but lost the courts.
Most of all we confront the USA in the arms market. But look: on the sanctions list 45 of our enterprises - and almost 60 Chinese! If in 2018 year we were on the world arms market in second place after the United States, to the 2019 - already on the third, after the USA and China. We are very much behind - and this is the result of the sanctions, which are designed to seriously undermine the export opportunities of our and the Chinese military-industrial complex. China is already more important to the US, and a more serious opponent. And he behaves like a serious adversary: China does not protest publicly to the whole world.
And shout, like Rogozin: I, breakwater, demand, to lift these sanctions?! Well, ask further ...
Interviewed by Leonid Smirnov