Against the background of the success of the Russian special operation to stop the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by introducing a peacekeeping contingent into the region, the general regional disposition somehow fades into the background, which clearly indicates the preparation against Russia of a big war. Hot phase of the Karabakh confrontation, renewed, we remember, 27 September, served at the same time as a cover, and a detonator to accelerate military preparations everywhere. Now, when the “intermediate finish” has been reached and an important part of it is, in a sense, a fiasco of Turkish intentions to participate “on equal terms” with Russia in the settlement, for which there is no, and there were no historical, no other reason, it's time to cover the whole situation, in complex. certainly, it has been done for a long time, and this is done every day in political and military headquarters, but for obvious reasons, little is reported to the public. Although reported, of course, within the framework of accessibility for perception of topics, to whom it is important and interesting. Unfortunately, very often "not in the horse feed": the population immersed in "everyday life" ignores these signals, and it can be understood. Do not have to deal with "high matters", but everyday physical survival.
From the very beginning, since the establishment of the powers in Turkey, professing the ideology of neo-Ottomanism, it was clear, that any attempts to replay history, restoring the "second caliphate" (Ottoman Empire), collide with the interests of many geopolitical players. First of all, the Anglo-Americans on the one hand and Russia on the other. This situation is not black and white, and multilateral, colored, "What in history do we hear a lot of examples". Anglo-Saxons never act head-on, but play with someone else's hands. This is how they once destroyed the Ottoman Empire.. And in parallel, they supported her against Russia, trying to, provoking a conflict, weaken his sides so, to dictate your will to them. The Russian-Turkish war of the last quarter of the 19th century is notable not only for the victories of Russian weapons, but also in the international context, in which they were placed: from the British ultimatum to St. Petersburg on Constantinople and the Straits to the Berlin Congress, in which the achievements of the military campaign were essentially crossed out. AND, add, on this wave inside the country arose a future unrest, irreconcilable with the monarchy, the link between different ranks of the revolutionary intelligentsia and clerical traditionalist circles, the organizational and political expression of which was the "Sacred squad". The Turks who rubbed their hands then did not know, what will come after them; it took the collective genius of Lenin and Ataturk, to break this vicious circle, moving away from the leading roles in this game of external, non-regional players. And it's quite obvious, that no matter how puffed up the current "undersultan", not only stand on a par with the founder of the secular Turkish statehood, but he won't be able to reach the lace on his boot - not the same scale, no horizons, no level. According to A.S.. Pushkin, "Do not step, not to say ... ". Although he can break a lot of firewood, It is obvious.
However, unlike Turkey, the experience of strategic planning of those international "shepherds", which Ankara habitually drags chestnuts out of the fire, mentally, apparently, naively believing, that they are overplayed by the brutality of their own ambitions. Against the background of the active phase of the Karabakh conflict in mid-October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Ankara. The main result of his negotiations with his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan was a classified military agreement on the 21st point of interaction, signed by the heads of the NSDC of the two countries; from the Ukrainian side - by the "bloody pastor" Turchinov, personally responsible for the tragic events of February 2014 of the year. However, the "Punchinelle's secret" is the main purpose of this interaction. Ukrainian authorities, inspired by the Azerbaijani successes in Karabakh and clearly understanding the role of Turkey in them, as an organizational-planned, and military-technical, decided to use this experience for their own purposes. We can reliably state, that at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are already six Bayraktar TB2 attack drones and three guidance stations attached to them - for 70 million dollars. It is planned to purchase more 48 such devices, as well as the construction of a military industrial site for their assembly in Ukraine, which will allow Kiev to reduce the production cost of each unmanned vehicle by a third, and Turkey to bypass American sanctions by a roundabout way through Ukraine, including a ban on the supply of components for these aircraft. by the way, The Ukrainian Armed Forces have already tested the Bayraktar TB2 UAV in the central part of Ukraine, on the terrain similar to Donbass, which removes the remnants of the question of, what are all these movements and maneuvers for?.
Calling a spade a spade, Kiev plans to "resolve the issue" of the DPR and LPR on the "Croatian" or, more fashionable now, according to the "Azerbaijani" scenario by the blitzkrieg method, counting on total air superiority with the help of the Turks. Besides, numerous leaks from the secret Turkish-Ukrainian agreement, regardless of, from which side did they "flow away", unambiguously indicate the possibility of Turkey's direct involvement in the conflict in Donbass, which changes the balance of not only the military, but also political forces. Need to clearly understand: all, what happens around Donbass after the change of Kuchma to Kravchuk as part of the trilateral Contact Group from the Ukrainian side, aims to accelerate the undermining of the Minsk agreements, who bind the ambitions of the Kiev authorities; Kiev's attempts to convene the Normandy format from scratch are dedicated to this very goal. While clearly exploiting the current sharp aggravation of Russian-European relations, primarily with Germany and France.
At the same time, the Kiev authorities have become more active in the "Crimean" direction. And, here the strategy has been formed since this summer and is an attempt at a deeply echeloned, essentially bloc, involving European forces in direct confrontation with Russia, not counting on Berlin and Paris, and NATO. And also - this is in many ways a separate topic - again to Turkey. After all, one side, Ankara does not recognize Crimea as Russian, and on the other, doubts his "belonging" to Ukraine, counting, According to Erdogan, take it to yourself, which fully fits into the aforementioned neo-Ottoman ambitions "from Crimea to Jerusalem". But Turkey is not the main thing in this plot.; it is assigned the role of non-political, but of a purely military nature, which involves the use of Turkish "cannon fodder" followed by, in case of victory, stealing her fruit from her. What can you do: “Quiet Ukrainian night, but it's better to hide lard ", it is common knowledge.
essentially. Also in 2016 year, long before Zelensky and with the relatively "early" Poroshenko, Turkey and Ukraine essentially signed an anti-Russian alliance, aimed at the so-called "de-occupation" of Crimea, and, it is now the Turks who speak aloud about the former entry of the peninsula into the Ottoman Empire, and then Erdogan signed up for this adventure under the modest cover of the thesis about the "oppression" of the Crimean Tatars in the Russian Crimea. Since then, the situation has been firmly "on pause" and has been removed from it only recently. At the end of July, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal proposed to create a kind of "international platform" under the slogan "Crimea is Ukraine". A month later, in the last decade of August, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba invited Germany to join her (is this the real reason for the sharp aggravation of relations between Moscow and Berlin?). Another month later, in September, as part of a speech in a general political discussion at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, Zelensky has already invited almost all Europeans to the Crimean Platform. At the same time, the first deputy of Kuleba, Ms. Jeppar, pharisaically announced the invitation to participate in this platform of the Russian Federation, and it's clear why. Make Russia, sit on one side of the table, putting against her in front of everyone else and arrange a kind of "trial". properly, at the same time, Zelensky called Erdogan to the Crimean Platform. The point has been set 20 October, during Zelensky's speech with a message in the Verkhovna Rada. The ex-clown told the deputies, that Kiev has secured the support of the "Crimean Platform" from the EU Foreign Policy Commissioner Michel, as well as UK and Canadian guides. Not mentioned in this list USA, but most likely for two reasons: "Neponyatok" with elections and for disguise. Washington is always at the epicenter of coordination of all Western projects, not only anti-Russian, therefore, his participation in the public is not lit and is accepted "by default".
In less than three weeks, how Ukraine launched the advancement of the bill through parliament, allowing, in the event of war, to intern the holders of Russian passports in fact in concentration camps, isolating them from society. Most observers attributed this to the preparations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass. But it seems, that the idea is much broader and extends to the entire population of Ukraine, what is happening within the framework of preparations for a frontal military clash between Ukraine and Russia, which has entered the final phase, in which the priority area is by no means Donbass, and Crimea.
Now we put the puzzle together. "Crimean Platform" is a political project with the participation of almost the entire West, centered in the EU. At the same time, the Franco-German "axis" of the European Union is involved in the events in Donbass within the framework of the Normandy format. Turkey is a shock military force, but not without problems, related to Crimea: she may well fight for him, but then give it back to Ukraine - is unlikely to agree. Therefore, the mechanism being built by Kiev with the support of London, Brussels and ultimately from Washington of the "Crimean Platform", spearhead aimed at confrontation with Russia, auxiliary vector directed against Turkey. Banal three-way: the hands of Europe, the "Crimean problem" is exalted to a military hysteria, which is facilitated by the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donbas with the help and possible participation of Turkey, who plays the role of fuse in the "big" conflict. Second move, in the course of further military escalation, Turks retarget to Crimea, and the third - with the help of the same Europe, captured by the hands of Ankara, if she has enough pants, the peninsula "diplomatically" is "squeezed out" in favor of Ukraine. Then it turns into NATO's "unsinkable aircraft carrier", dominant over the entire region. Including over Turkey itself. Here it is necessary to make a reservation, what we, of course, talking about plans, how they are most likely spelled out by the opposing side.
Nobody guarantees, that in the course of these events there will be no attempt to strike against another Russian enclave - Kaliningrad, especially, that the topic of a military solution to the question of its "return to Europe" has been warming up for a long time, and Moscow's diplomatic confrontation with Berlin creates an extremely "favorable" information background for such aggression. Including in Germany itself.
What's missing in this picture? Of course, completeness of American elections. Biden in anticipation of victory, which he can’t get, whether to keep, already managed to say a lot, including about stepping up assistance to Ukraine. Some experts, including those previously associated with the ruling circles of the people's republics of Donbass, consider, that with the general strategy of strangling them, Biden, unlike Trump, gravitating towards "soft power", will rely on straight forward action, including encouraging direct aggression of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
does it mean, that under Trump a big war will be avoided? Far from fact; it's just that most likely the central theater of such a war will move from Crimea to the Transcaucasus. Is it a coincidence that Turkey, following Azerbaijan, pedals clipping issues in essence new, significantly reduced, NKR territory from the border with Iran? Why for Erdogan, has much more common ground with Trump, than with Biden, is it so important? Is it because, that Ankara knows something about possible US actions while maintaining the status quo in the White House against Tehran? And she prepares for this very actively, going to pick up "leftovers from the master's table"?
In this case, one must very clearly understand, that the development of the situation according to a radical - military - scenario, regardless of, where exactly the "fuse cord" will be set on fire, will create a completely new situation in a huge and unique region with its instability. Within the plans, the implementation of which the "big hegemon" has set itself the goal, Local "hegemonics" will not doze either. Empire, as Academician Sakharov said, there are big and strong, but there are small and weak. Both are united by imperial politics, to which a seasoned human rights defender, we remember, felt extreme dislike. And if Washington takes a chance and goes on an adventure, then all the scenarios described by us can get parallel development under the guise. Especially, that nothing can "put in order" the NATO members that are in front of the USA faster and more efficiently, than direct dependence on the patron in a major military conflict.
Simultaneously with the growing confrontation in the Black Sea and Caspian basins, certain shifts are taking place in the "rear" of Ankara, where the past days are marked by the actual proclamation of the anti-Turkish union of Egypt and Greece. It is possible to discuss his intentions and possibilities for a long time and to no avail in the context of the unleashing of a large conflict, but something suggests, what's next for Libya and Cyprus, no others extend. Another thing is the rapidly developing process of reconciliation of the leading Arab monarchies with Israel.. Despite, that, purely theoretically, he can equally be turned against Turkey, and against Iran, China factor can serve as a "litmus test" in these processes. more precisely, continued intense rapprochement between Beijing and Tehran, occurring simultaneously with the strengthening of stability in China's relations with the Arab world. Overall it appears, that these tendencies do not add optimism to Erdogan who took a bite of the bit. But this is a slightly different story..
Hence the "dry residue". Erdogan had a unique opportunity to essentially divide the Middle East region into two with Russia; certain opportunities for this were provided as an objective factor in regional layouts, in which the constant presence of the United States is frankly tired of, and Israel - infuriates, and subjective - special trust, which the Russian government has had for Erdogan for many years. Even neo-Ottoman ambitions were not a hindrance here.: their Ankara only needed to be displaced a couple of hundred kilometers to the south, delimiting spheres of influence and surrendering "their scoundrels" from the "democratic" Syrian "opposition", "Peaceful" during the day and armed at night. Nobody would mind. But Erdogan clearly overestimated his strength, puffing out the cheeks and blowing up the fog of "inflated ideas about one's own capabilities". He perceived the respectful attitude of Moscow inadequately - not with a gesture of goodwill in relation to a historical opponent, but for granted, corresponding to "special status", fictional in front of the mirror. Azerbaijan won in the Karabakh conflict, seizing two-thirds of the previously disputed region. Turkey lost, swinging a gold coin, and hit the hryvnia. All current maneuvers around the peacekeeping mission are waving fists after a fight, which is played. At least, at this stage. Now there is a pause of comprehension and accumulation of strength. From all sides of the conflict. And since Erdogan clearly disagrees with this pause, but ambitions cannot be appeased, they drag him down a very slippery slope. Not only Turkey can slip on it, but the whole region, and after him the world. Is the collapse of Ankara's foreign policy, inevitable at the current course, necessary?, and who will benefit from this - a controversial issue. In our opinion - by no means Russia, most interested in, in order to minimize the influence of external players on a vital region for us. But agreeing to the role of a party to the conflict, it turned out to be impossible to stop without Moscow, Ankara has doomed itself to that unenviable role, which she doesn't like, and which she tries in vain to replay.