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Nagorno-Karabakh: who and how will tame Aliyev and Erdogan

Nagorno-Karabakh: who and how will tame Aliyev and Erdogan

Agreements on humanitarian truce violated in Nagorno-Karabakh, which came into force since 00:00 hours 18 October, which was achieved thanks to the efforts of the military departments of the conflicting Azerbaijan and Armenia and without the intermediary efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries. Although it was claimed, that the decision was made, "Following the statement of the Presidents of the French Republic, Russian Federation and the United States of America, representing the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries from 1 October 2020 of the year, a statement from 5 October 2020 year and in accordance with the Moscow statement from 10 October 2020 of the year".

Understood, that the parties are accused of gross violation of the truce of each other. The fighting in the northern and southern sectors of the front continues. Both sides suffer losses, there are dead and wounded. For obvious reasons, the parties do not throw a lot into the open information space, if not most of that, what happens on the battlefield. Many media reports should be viewed with extreme caution., since they have no confirmation, which makes it difficult to recreate a detailed reliable picture of what is happening. But we can talk about the emerging geopolitical balance of power, as there are numerous political statements and various diplomatic contacts. Now the following is obvious: Azerbaijan's lightning war with the active and almost all-round support of Turkey did not take place. The war becomes protracted. Nonetheless, Ankara presents itself as the common denominator and cause of many challenges.

Another telephone conversation took place between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. In the official reports of the two foreign ministries on this occasion sound seemingly correct words about “the need to strictly comply with the provisions of the Moscow statement of the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation, The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia from 10 October ", notes "the need for the immediate establishment of the ceasefire regime and the coordination of mechanisms for monitoring its observance", specifies "the importance of prompt coordination of steps to resume the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group mechanisms with an eye to achieving real results".

But there are no concrete deeds behind words. This also applies equally to telephone conversations between Lavrov and his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts.. Furthermore, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declares, that "the Minsk Group should complete negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh" and "return the territory to Azerbaijan". And further. He blames the USA, France and Russia in delaying this process. But the accusations of the OSCE Minsk Group for inactivity have no basis, since, for its part, the group performs exactly those functions, who are entrusted with it - to mediate between the parties and help them find a compromise solution. The task of the group is not to impose any solution on the participants in the conflict..

In turn, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev insists on restoring the country's territorial integrity, regaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh and returning Azerbaijanis to the region. According to him, to achieve the goal, Baku "will go to the end", moreover, the Azerbaijani authorities will never agree with the recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says, that his country does not agree with the denial of self-determination to Nagorno-Karabakh and continues to call on the international community to recognize the statehood of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, the conflicting parties, tightening their positions, act contrary to the previously agreed principles of the peaceful settlement of the conflict.

Therefore, it will be very difficult for the Minsk Group to return to the original negotiating position., since Baku and Yerevan are not ready for mutual concessions, although Armenia is more ready for peace talks. Aliyev generally considers the most acceptable scenario for solving the problem by force. Former American Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, in 1999-2001, co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, considers, what, until it is possible to convince Aliyev that, that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has no military solution, "The battle will go on". But how to do that? After all, relying on Erdogan, he decided on a power scenario, what, according to British expert Laurence Broers, “Signals a decrease in international influence on the parties to the conflict, including from Moscow ".

According to Broers, “Russia may have more diplomatic leverage, but Turkey, supporting Azerbaijan, potentially has more leverage in the theater of war itself ". At the same time the USA, according to the expert, although they call for the observance of the ceasefire and the peaceful resolution of the conflict, do not take due part in resolving the situation in the region. Besides, there is practically no collective action by international actors, passive EU, although the Karabakh war is taking place on part of the European continent.

There is data, according to which the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (WITH) with the support of the Ministry of Defense actively recruits mercenaries in different countries to participate in hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh on the side of Baku. In the first week of October alone, about 1,3 thousand. mercenaries from Syria and 150 from Libya. In response, Erdogan declares, that the Minsk Group is helping Armenia, sending her weapons. Clear, that for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a new powerful political impetus and impetus is needed to activate this process in the diplomatic, and not in the power line.

This work should definitely start., until it came to a full-scale military conflict not only in the Caucasus.

Stanislav Tarasov

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