Polish and Estonian coastal missile batteries are able to practically lock up the Russian fleet in ports. The Kaliningrad exclave, deprived of supplies by sea, will thus be surrounded, in a kind of "cauldron", which can only be broken through by ground forces through the Baltic States and the Suwalk Isthmus.
How to lock up the Russian fleet
This opinion is expressed by Maksymilian Dura on the pages of the Polish edition of Defense24:
Batteries "Bastions" and "Balov", located in the Kaliningrad region, changed the situation for NATO ships in the Baltic Sea, and coastal missile systems in Poland and Estonia will change the situation for the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy.
In his words, the possibility of effective use of anti-ship missiles against the Russian fleet is reduced to the following conditions: maximum flight range (component over 220 km); impressive grouping of launchers in Estonia; powerful target detection system (with the use of ships and naval aviation); cover and disguise PU; parallel artillery strike against military targets in the Kaliningrad region.
However, these requirements clearly do not work in favor of NATO.. Polish coastal rocket launchers are guided by the TRS-15C radar at a distance of 40 km. Russians have reason to believe, that the same situation will happen in Estonia. But it is quite possible to close this gap., eg, due to the active use of drones at low altitude, which will allow them to "snuggle" to the water and evade detection by Russian radars. Especially, that the air defense systems of the most modern ships of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy have a range 150 km.
Normal shells to help
According to the author, the distance of approach of conventional shells will allow you to cope with the task of destroying part of the fleet, located in Baltiysk, without resorting to the use of RCC in this sector.
In his words, in case of transition to new detection means in Poland and Estonia, Russians will not be able to defend even the route from Kronstadt to Baltiysk. Due to the lack of specialized ships, they will not be able to conduct large amphibious operations. Apparently, instead of them, the landing of saboteurs is being practiced.
Summarizing, the author hopes, that reason will prevail in relations between Russia and NATO countries.
However, Russian reality is far from ideal due to the important role of propaganda and ambitions of admirals and generals
– the Polish expert concludes, relying on the "conscientiousness" of ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation, who “can personally see the high standard of living, typical for Western countries ".