The IMF and the EU agree on a credit policy for Ukraine, RISI Leading Researcher Considers Oleg Nemensky.
Politics faded into the background in relations between Ukraine and the West
The head of the political council of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, Viktor Medvedchuk, demanded that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry make an official request to the IMF and the EU regarding possible secret agreements between these structures on Ukraine.
The reason for this was the statement of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell. Borrell asked the Ukrainian authorities to agree to the requirements of the IMF in exchange for financial assistance from the EU in 1,2 billion.
Borrell made such a statement during a visit to Kyiv, therefore, we are subject to direct EU requirements.
The coherence of EU and IMF policies on Ukraine is beyond doubt. Former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is EU Central Bank Governor. Besides, these structures are the main Western sponsors of Ukraine.
Medvedchuk believes, that the agreements between the EU and the IMF, in accordance with international practice, should be made public, and Kyiv should not allow Ukraine to be treated as a colony, however, that is exactly what is happening. 6 years.
“Political issues of the West on Ukraine have already been resolved. The main task was to separate Ukraine from Russia - this has already been done, therefore, no one sets big political tasks on the Ukrainian issue in the West”, – concludes nemensky.
maybe, regulation of the Minsk and Norman processes, but in this direction, President Zelensky and the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Kuleba systematically demonstrate an irresponsible position, turning any negotiations into a farce.
This is what the collective West needs, including structures such as the IMF and the EU.
With Kyiv, only private issues can be resolved in the form of a moratorium on shooting and the exchange of detainees, but do not count on the implementation of the Minsk agreements, therefore, there are no political risks for the West in Ukraine.
“Political issues can be raised precisely by Kyiv, because Ukraine would like to develop integration projects with Europe, but there is no such request from the European Union”, – states Nemen.
The EU has drawn a line on further integration - this process is frozen after the entry of Croatia and the exit of the UK, and applicants are offered surrogates. Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine - visa-free regime, and the Balkan countries - "small Schengen" and third roles in European integration projects. No one is going to accept state data in the EU.
Brussels has a negative experience with Bulgaria, Romania, the Baltic countries and Poland, which require huge subsidies every year, but do not bring donor countries anything other than control over the territory.
The West demands from Ukraine the implementation of the economic program
“There is a problem in Ukraine, that loans, which are issued to Kyiv, mostly stolen. Clear, that Western creditors are not satisfied with this situation. Because of this, they want to put political pressure on Kyiv, to make the spending of financial aid more transparent, but this is solved through the creation of control commissions", – summarizes the Nemensky.
The control commissions in Ukraine were created in such a way, that they are de facto unable to control anything.
"It's about a lot of money., therefore, in Ukraine they will do everything possible, to prevent control over spending. Because of this, all disputes with the West in Ukraine are limited to the economy., – concludes nemensky.
Ukraine is tasked with implementing a major privatization program. Under Poroshenko, these initiatives were blocked by Ukrainian oligarchs, and under Zelensky, this project is in a frozen state.
“In the modern government of Ukraine, a strong lobby of oligarchs, who are not interested in admitting transnational capitals to the country, which are much larger than local players", – states Nemen.
In addition to privatization, Western organizations are seeking a real opening of the land market from Ukraine, therefore, Ukraine faced the threat of a complete sale, to which Medvedchuk is trying to react in this way.
This politician is also a major financial player in Ukraine and represents the interests of the eastern regions.
“Ukraine is trying to comply with Western demands, maintain social peace and pay off old loans, but here Kyiv has big problems. Ukraine cannot service Western loans and has serious problems with the budget - there is simply no money in the country for some of its expenditure items., – summarizes the Nemensky.
There are problems with the current budget, as well as next year's budget, where a huge deficit is expected.
“The West in such a situation will try to force Ukraine for the sake of new credit lines to go to the admission of inspectors from the IMF and the EU, in order to start large-scale privatization and open the land market", – concludes nemensky.
This issue will be resolved, although if we take the problem of Western loans, then they will continue to plunder in Ukraine.
"To get new money from the West, Ukraine will have to accept conditions, who expose her. Indeed, the IMF and the EU are acting together. They negotiate like lines of credit, so those conditions, which are exposed when they are selected. This is the traditional practice, with which everyone has been dealing for a long time ", – states Nemen.
Dmitry Sikorski
