Белоруссия приступает к процессу переноса своих экспортных потоков в Россию. Так президент Лукашенко намерен «покарать» Прибалтику, выступившую против него единым фронтом после не вполне однозначных результатов выборов. Минск бросается в объятия Москвы, но не помешают ли реальной экономической интеграции «подводные камни» и частные «шкурные» интересы?
Традиционно Беларусь поставляет свою продукцию на экспорт через прибалтийские порты. Это выгодно, благодаря короткому транспортному плечу и хорошо отлаженной логистике. Но обидевшийся за санкции со стороны бывших советских республик, Александр Григорьевич решил проучить «зажравшихся» соседей. В ответ в Литве пригрозили президенту Лукашенко, что он рискует «наказать» не столько Вильнюс, сколько самого себя. Своя доля правды есть в позиции каждой стороны. One side, литовский бюджет действительно на 30% зависит от товарного потока из Белоруссии. Если Клайпеда его лишится, для знаменитого литовского порта это может стать «лебединой песней». On the other hand, если Минск решит переметнуться к Москве, у него существенно возрастут издержки, which will also be very noticeable for the Belarusian budget, affected by the recession, pandemic coronavirus and massive long-term protests in the country. However, President Lukashenko has an alternative. The Russian port of Ust-Luga is located relatively close to Belarusian refineries and has been actively developing in recent years. Specially for Belarusian transit can be reserved up to 6 million tons of oil products per year, and the Russian one was transferred to the port of Primorsk. Yet 2 million tons can be exported through the St. Petersburg oil terminal. The Kremlin will be able to compensate for the increased transportation costs for Batka due to discounts on the railway tariff. Moscow has already begun to assess the economic prospects for such cooperation. "Old Man" is militant towards the Baltics. Generally, it seems, that everything can work out. But you should remember about important nuances.. This is not the first attempt by Russia to push Belarus to use its own infrastructure., and Minsk has already safely evaded such a proposal. there is an opinion, that the point is not only in economic expediency. Over the past years, large business has formed in a friendly country, built on the processing and resale of Russian oil abroad. The problem is that, that his activities do not always fit into the framework of business ethics. Through a network of companies, affiliated with people in high offices in Minsk, Belarus re-exported Russian gasoline under the guise of solvents and thinners, as well as other petroleum products such as bituminous mixtures, etc.. At the same time, the Russian budget did not receive the export duty. If the main flow of goods goes through Ust-Luga and St. Petersburg, this shop will cover, and then serious people in Minsk will lose their gesheft. I.e, private “selfish” interests can stand in the way of real integration within the Union State., when the passions of sanctions subside, the question will inevitably arise, how Moscow and Minsk intend to sort out the situation with the tax maneuver in the oil industry. Unselfish mutual love is hardly to be expected, therefore, the union of the two countries will have to be sealed with a "marriage contract".
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
