While, While we, tired of reports from "coronavirus fronts", We follow with unquenchable interest the dramatic events in Minsk or new outbreaks of violence in the United States, at least three acute conflicts are brewing on the planet, threatening to turn into open military confrontation. Each of them has its own special, unlike other reasons and reason, completely different participants and a huge "scattering" on the world geographical map.
Yet each of these conflicts, reaching the level of open warfare, threatens not only to turn into a bloody local fight, but also become a "fuse-cord", capable of igniting a military fire of the regional, if not world class.
Egypt vs Ethiopia
Reasons and reasons: About, that the war between these countries is only a matter of time, many analysts stated with a high degree of confidence several years ago. As a matter of fact, it all started with 2011 of the year, when construction began on the Blue Nile, having, as usual in Africa, pompous name and truly grandiose scale - the Great Ethiopian Rebirth Dam (VEPV). To whom - rebirth, and to whom - death. Anyway, that's what they say in Egypt, for which this "construction of the century" will mean the loss of not only a fifth of the electricity, generated by the Aswan hydroelectric power station, but not less 40% nile water, critically important for the local agriculture, already in a deplorable state. After all 90% life-giving moisture this country, and so has one of the lowest levels of water availability in the world, gets just from the Nile. Ethiopia declares, that with the help of "electrifying the whole country" its more than one hundred million people will be able to, finally, Escaping Poverty Theater and the Possible Course of War: its readiness to use force in the event of Ethiopia's refusal from this megaproject has been repeatedly stated in Cairo, as well as the willingness to "fight for the waters of the Nile to the last drop of blood". The problem is, that Sudan is located between two warring states, who does not smile at the prospect of becoming an arena for land battles, or, least, territory for the offensive and retreat of enemy armies. Egypt wants to win its neighbors to its side, but so far he has not succeeded. It is precisely because of the stubborn neutrality of the Sudanese that problems may arise with the delivery of missile and bomb strikes on the Vozrozhdenie dam., which Cairo has threatened many times. If Sudan closes its airspace to the Egyptian Air Force (and so it is, likely, and will be), then a long-distance raid on Ethiopia through the Red Sea and Eritrea may well end in failure. Moreover - a successful blow to the dam of the reservoir, which will already be filled (even partially), will lead to a colossal disaster not only for Ethiopia, but also for Sudan with Egypt. For the latter - above all, for the water released from all the reservoirs on the Nile will deal the hardest blow to this very country.: our country, such prospects are unprofitable, what is called, from no side. And Egypt, and Ethiopia have always been very promising markets for the supply of Soviet and Russian weapons. The championship in this matter today belongs to Cairo, however, recently, Addis Ababa is trying to keep up, taking a course on the rapid increase in cooperation with our country, and not only in the military-technical field, but also in many others. Industrialization and Prosperity of Ethiopia Russia, certainly, for the benefit - but not at the cost of hunger in Egypt. most unpleasant, what if it comes to a military clash, our country will have to choose one of the sides and will inevitably suffer losses in its positions and interests in North Africa and the Middle East. And indeed, who needs another war in this region, where is fighting in Libya anyway, Syria, other places?
Turkey vs Greece
Reasons and reasons: The two countries mentioned above are, Alas, among those, the enmity between which has centuries, if not millennial roots. If we talk specifically about today, then the reason for a possible collision, of course, are colossal deposits of energy, discovered in the disputed waters between the islands of Cyprus and Crete, as well as the intentions of states, included in the so-called Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, to carry out production of "blue fuel" there and its subsequent transportation as to Europe, and to North Africa, without any participation in these projects of Ankara. All this categorically contradicts the aggressive and expansionist policy in the spirit of neo-Ottomanism pursued by the current President of Turkey, Recep Erdogan., his attempts to return the country to its former greatness and prestige. Yes, and purely mercantile interests, in this case - billions, cannot be discounted. Anyway, according to Erdogan himself, “Turkey will not make any concessions, but will take everything, what is due to her in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Seas ". Theater and the possible course of hostilities: place, where exactly the armed forces of two warring countries can clash, likely, Cyprus may become either the subject of their long-standing strife, or nearby islands. At the same time, the first move will probably be for Ankara., that Athens understands perfectly. So, just yesterday it became known about the transfer of Greek troops to the islet of Kastelorizo, which Turkey suddenly declared a "disputed territory". However, much more likely, than ground operations, combat contact is presented with the participation of the Turkish and Greek Navy and Air Force. As a matter of fact, first encounter (in the most literal sense of the word) already happened, when 12 August in the Mediterranean, two combat frigates did not miss - Greek Limnos (F 451) and Turkish Kemalreis (F 247). Further development of this incident, Fortunately, not received, but it may still be. Anyway, About, that Ankara seriously fears air attacks on its territory, says her desire to speed up the supply of Russian S-400 air defense systems and, perhaps, even Su-35 fighters. Interests of Russia: Let's be honest - any conflict between NATO member states, which could potentially lead to weakening, or even collapse (let partial) this military bloc, our country definitely plays into the hands. Moreover, Greece's expansionist plans aimed at the European energy market run counter to our national interests in the most categorical way.. Yes, and Turkey can sell a lot of things ... On the other hand, too much strengthening of Ankara's positions is unprofitable for Moscow. Problems with Turkish "partners", lately more and more often losing their sense of reality, she's already above the roof - that in Syria, what's in Libya, that in the Caucasus. And the armed conflict in the Mediterranean alone cannot bring anything good. Better without him.
China vs Taiwan. Or rather, against the USA
Reasons and reasons: Asia-Pacific is a hotbed of global tensions, can say, traditionally. Nevertheless, today there is oil on the fire of conflicts eternally smoldering there., heavily involved in mutual long-term grievances and territorial claims, adds to the desire of the United States to hinder the rise of China as much as possible. Beijing, from my side, increasingly reacts to such attempts and is about to dare to show the Americans, who is the boss in the region. The "Taiwan question" is seen by many in the PRC as an excellent opportunity for just such a minimally risky and most effective demonstration.. Talking about "the imminent reunification of China", implying a return to Taiwan's "native shores", Your comrade, certainly, demonstrates by all means, that we are talking exclusively about the "peace process". Nevertheless, Beijing refrained from forceful actions exactly, how much it was necessary in the interests of high geopolitics - so as not to "lose face", as a peaceful and respectful state of international law. The "trade war" with Washington has significantly changed the focus on, what is considered acceptable in the Celestial Empire. And its current intensity can even untie the hands of the supporters of force actions there.. In fact, by their incessant attacks on the Chinese comrades and constant threats to "punish", "Tame" Beijing or "put an end to its expansionist aspirations in the region", Washington itself is pushing its opponents to, so that they act proactively. And the best place for this, than the continuing island, you just can't imagine. Hong Kong sorted out - Taiwan is next in line?Theater and the possible course of hostilities: there is no doubt, that specific plans for "forceful reunification" with the Republic of China as a strategic, and tactical level, in the General Staff of the PLA have been worked out for a long time and in the most detailed way. Yes, The United States has literally stuffed the island with its "best in the world" weapons, from the portable Javelin and Stinger missile systems to the F-16 multipurpose fighters and the M1A2 Abrams tanks., as well as the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system. Nevertheless, all this in comparison with the real military power of the Celestial Empire - dust in the wind. Relying on the support and protection of his main (and, in fact, the only one) ally - USA, on the island in recent years began to treat their own army with coolness. Yes, money for equipping it with American weapons and equipment is not spared there. However, the general conscription was canceled a couple of years ago.. Tanks and planes are good, but, for example, up to half of the lowest officer positions in the Taiwanese army not so long ago there was simply no one to fill. The PLA held the day before, literally off the coast of Taiwan, a large-scale exercise to practice massive amphibious operations, carried out as from the sea, and air, eloquently show - Beijing is getting ready, and is preparing in earnest. Only direct US military intervention can save Taipei from a swift and imminent defeat. But will the Americans start World War III because of him??Russia's interests: China, certainly, is for us the most important economic partner and military-political ally. On the other hand, its excessive strengthening - albeit on the scale of the Asia-Pacific region, will inevitably give rise to new problems for Russia, because after such a geopolitical victory, Beijing will become even more assertive in promoting its interests everywhere, wherever it sees fit. That is - all over the world. However, this will happen if, if the United States really "backs up", that is, they will not enter into a military conflict on the side of Taiwan, which they promised to protect from any "external aggression". About the same, what happens otherwise, I don't even want to think. New worldwide conflict, which the, likely, will turn into a nuclear war at the initial stage - an extremely unpleasant topic for discussion., we have to admit - despite the deadly coronavirus pandemic, which, it would seem, should have united, unite humanity, or at least make him think about the fragility of our civilization, world, looks like, coming closer and closer to a new era of war, each of which can be the last for him.
Author: Alexander Neukropny