The situation in the bilateral relations of Armenia and Azerbaijan has been heated since the collapse of the USSR, believes the chief editor of the journal "Problems of National Strategy" Dragon Kurtov.
This is part of an old conflict.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said, that Moscow is ready to assist in the settlement of another exacerbation between Yerevan and Baku.
Yesterday, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported an attempt by the Armenian armed forces to attack the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the Tovuz direction using artillery. As a result, two Azerbaijani soldiers died, five were injured .
In Yerevan, they interpreted these events differently and blamed Baku, stated, that the Azerbaijani army shells Armenian territory for every 10-15 minutes. This story relates to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict., but it was this incident that occurred on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border, not in traditionally “disputed” territory.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks with colleagues from Armenia and Azerbaijan and stated, that escalation is unacceptable and that it is necessary to control the situation, but before us is the most serious incident from the fighting 2016 of the year.
The roots of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict go to the collapse of the USSR, when in Stepanakert they announced the withdrawal of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic from Azerbaijan and submitted a request to the Soviet and republican governments to issue such a decision.
This event destabilized the Caucasus, led to a political crisis like in Armenia, so in Azerbaijan, massacre of Armenians in Baku, the coming to power of nationalists in both Soviet republics and the outbreak of war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
In this region today there is an unrecognized state, even the Republic of Artsakh., which has strong ties with Yerevan and forms a whole with it. Baku does not recognize this state of affairs and continues to claim the return of this region.
Because of this, the entire geopolitical and military line of Azerbaijan is connected with Nagorno-Karabakh, with plans for his return and confrontation with Armenia, a member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Union and having allied relations with Russia.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution Not Traced
“The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the oldest in the post-Soviet space. In the political phase, it began at the end of the existence of the USSR, and the parties began to incline to hostilities in those days, when the Union still existed ”, – states Kurtov.
Truce, more precisely, a ceasefire was negotiated by the parties only in 1994 year, and since then there is no hope of a long-term agreement, which would suit as Azerbaijani, so the Armenian side.
Russia held many summits, where in the format 2+1 leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan conducted bilateral negotiations with the participation of the President of the Russian Federation, but they never reached consensus. Armenians demand recognition of sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijanis will not do this under any circumstances. Therefore, negotiations are declarative in nature, without a chance to achieve a result.
“Too much time has passed, so that attempts to resolve the conflict do not bring results, but this did not happen, therefore count on, that this conflict will not be resolved ”, – summarizes Kurt.
Azhdar Ashirovich implies both options: as a political agreement, and the military victory of one of the parties.
“The situation will continue along with provocations at the border, which are organized mainly by the Azerbaijani side, casualties of military personnel and civilians and mutual reproaches of Baku and Yerevan ”, – Kurtov concludes.
Authorities in Yerevan and Baku use this conflict to mobilize population support, so the parties are used to living like that.
Many factors play a role in this story.
“External forces are tied to this conflict. I guess, that it is no coincidence that the current exacerbation occurred immediately after, how the Turks and President Erdogan made their decision on Hagia Sophia. Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and has repeatedly stated its solidarity with Baku’s policy on Nagorno-Karabakh. ", – states Kurtov.
A lot of historical and ideological moments come up here, starting from the Armenian Genocide in Turkey during the First World War, ending with the cultural proximity of the Turks and Azerbaijanis, let them represent different directions of Islam.
“Turks train Azerbaijani soldiers in their educational institutions, supply arms to Azerbaijan and even use diplomatic efforts to, to create a regional quasi-state association from Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi, which will be directed against Yerevan ”, – summarizes Kurt.
Understandably, that the unification of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan will work against Russia, given the alignment in global politics.
“Azerbaijan relies on creating military superiority, but history knows many cases, when it was not a decisive factor for victory. Armenians fight this effectively, and in the early nineties they were weaker than the Azerbaijani army, but were able to defend their truth on the fronts ”, – Kurtov concludes.
Now the situation is unstable, so, According to experts, maybe some politicians will try to take advantage of this.
“This is not always possible, Mikhail Saakashvili’s similar plans 2008 year, whose attack on North Ossetia led to tragic consequences for Georgia itself. Therefore, in vain in Azerbaijan they count on, that financial and relative military-technical superiority of Baku guarantee success ”, – states Kurtov.
Dmitry Sikorski
