Japan's reaction to the amendments to the Russian Constitution is quite expected and will lead to a continuation “negotiations for negotiations”. About it FBA “economy today” told the expert of the Center for Japanese Studies of the Institute for the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences Oleg Kazakov.
Japan does not change its position on the issue of the southern Kuril Islands and the conclusion of a peace treaty in connection with the vote in Russia to amend the Constitution, said Secretary General of the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers Yoshihide Suga. he clarified: Tokyo is closely following developments in Russian domestic and foreign policy, but does not comment on amendments to the basic law of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the Japanese Cabinet does not intend to change the line of conduct in relations with Moscow..
“In our position, that is, to continue tight negotiations, aimed at solving the territorial issue with the subsequent signing of a peace treaty, no changes”, - noted Suga. In May, the Japanese Foreign Ministry in a report “Blue Book of Diplomacy” declared the right of Tokyo to claim “northern territories”. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to this, that Japan's decision contradicts the mood for negotiations between the countries, and invited the Japanese “back to reality”.
“Such a reaction from Tokyo to Russia's amendments to the Constitution is quite expected., – notes Kazakov. - Japan considers, that relations between states are governed primarily by international agreements, and the internal laws of the country, including the Constitution - an exclusively Russian matter, where no one should interfere. Therefore, Tokyo will simply continue to insist on the return of the Kunashir Islands., Shikotan, Iturup and Habomai ridges under their jurisdiction.
At the same time, the Japanese understand, that both sides are interested in international relations, so pretend, that there were simply no amendments. How Russian politicians will behave, hard to say. In the near future, as soon as the coronavirus epidemic recedes, high-level talks resume - expected, that first at the level of foreign ministers. Japan will insist on the return of the skeletons, dialogue will continue”.
Negotiation for the sake of negotiation
Recall, one of the amendments to the Constitution, for which the Russians voted with 25 June 1 July, includes, among other things, a ban on the alienation of the country's territories. For the amendment to enter into force, it must be supported by more than half of the voting participants, turnout threshold not set. According to the Central Election Commission (CEC) RF, after processing all the protocols on the voting results for the changes 77,92% of voters, against – 21,27%.
Another amendment implies the supremacy of Russian law, and in particular the Constitution, over international agreements and judgments, if they contradict the interests of the Russian Federation. Earlier, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear, that in order to conclude a peace treaty with Moscow, Japan must recognize Russia's sovereignty over the Kuriles, “and then, perhaps, everything else will be discussed”.
“The specialists have long formed a persistent feeling, which can even be called a fact: the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan became “negotiations for negotiations”. the USSR, and subsequently the Russian Federation, consistently adhere to their own position on this issue, Japan sets only one goal - the return of all four islands.. And he does not accept compromises in this matter.
On the other hand, this state of affairs includes a positive moment - the leaders of the two countries meet, talking. This stimulates a parallel process, which affects primarily the economy, public relations and other areas of mutual relations. If high-level negotiations end, then across the entire spectrum of Russian-Japanese relations we will see a cooling, which is not beneficial for Moscow, nor Tokyo”, – emphasizes Kazakov.
Japan's last hope
Since the middle of the last century, Moscow and Tokyo have intermittently held consultations on the development of a peace treaty following World War II.. The main obstacle to his conclusion was the question of belonging to the southern part of the Kuriles.. AT 1945 the whole archipelago was incorporated into the Soviet Union, however, the Japanese side disputes the ownership of Iturup, Kunashira, Shikotana and the now uninhabited island groups, which in Japan is called Habomai.
In recent years, the dialogue on this topic between Moscow and Tokyo has become especially intense - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met in total 27 time. A project was even developed for the joint development of disputed territories - Japan promised some breakthrough projects. However, she agrees to invest only on the condition that her legislation is applied on the islands.. For Russia, this is tantamount to the loss of sovereignty over this territory..
“Today there are only two positions - Moscow and Tokyo, RF has no official obligations on territories. The last legal moment, which is unpleasant for the Russian side - the famous Declaration 1956 of the year, where in paragraph 9 spelled out: The Soviet Union continues negotiations with Japan on a peace treaty, and, if imprisoned, transfers the island of Shikotan and the Habomai Ridge as a gesture of goodwill. This is the only document, where there are some obligations.
For the Japanese side, this is the last hope for at least some illusory chances in the territorial dispute.. However, Russia and Japan assess this document differently., so that, in my opinion, he does not bear any additional risks for the Russian Federation. For the Japanese, the Declaration leaves at least some opportunity to continue the dispute”, – concludes Oleg Kazakov.
Max Boot
