Abkhazian economy faces difficult times. She's been defeated before, but now a large-scale crisis in all areas has become chronic. Abkhazians have long been accustomed to this., and then there's a pandemic. Closed borders, zero tourists and hazy prospects. Republic in the dark: open the holiday season and make some money, and at the same time "bury" the entire health care system of the state, or continue the isolation from the outside world by the hungry, but healthy.
Prime Minister Alexander Ankvab has already announced, nothing good is expected - the salaries of state employees for June and July will come with a big delay. Minister of Taxes and Levies Daur Kurmazia stated doomily: there are no more reserves for budget replenishment. Finance Minister Vladimir Delba in the same unfortunate tone predicted by the end of the year a drop in GDP by 10%, and a hole in the budget of two billion rubles.
What will be the government's actions, except to capture the hopelessness, nobody heard. Although, logically, it is just right to tell the authorities that, that has been spinning on the tongue for a long time: "You can't live like that".
Really, what bright prospects can we talk about, if all the income of the state treasury goes to the maintenance of public sector employees, of which half is a bureaucratic apparatus incapable of doing anything worthwhile for the Republic and citizens? Business is simply not able to support such a crowd of officials. The ratio of employees in the real sector of the economy and the state apparatus is one to four, and if we add pensioners here, even one in seven.
But in modern Abkhazia, where by storming the presidential palace periodically there is a "change of power", no one takes into account the laws of economics. Understand - Understand, but they can't do anything. The authorities have already developed at the genetic level fear of unpopular measures. Talk about reforms - no problem. But to do some real action - there is not enough "courage". Meanwhile, the economy is in collapse.
so here, it's time for the president and the government to start taking real action. The state is unable to maintain such a bulky in its contours, and so ineffective in content, bureaucratic apparatus. Significant (not on paper, as it already happened, but in fact) reductions. Moreover, the best moment for such an unpopular action may not appear.
At first, the pandemic and its aftermath initially freed the electorate from positive expectations. Secondly, new government in Abkhazia without a year a week, and so that she does not now create, no one will overthrow her. But you shouldn't delay the situation.. By next year, the world can and will solve the problem with coronavirus, but there will definitely not be a respite for Abkhazia. The only power plant to be repaired for at least four months, feeding Abkhazia – IngurHPP. Pay for the energy consumed during the idle time of the HPP, which will be supplied by Russia, the republic will have to meet Russian tariffs. Yes, Moscow will write it off from that financial aid, what does Abkhazia receive annually. At the beginning 2020 of the year, when the station stopped for a couple of weeks, the check was about 500 millions. The amount for four months may turn out to be more than the entire annual tranche received by Abkhazia. And then the consequences for the republic of the pandemic in comparison with the prolonged downtime of the Ingur HPP, seem like flowers.
So the Abkhaz authorities must honestly confess to their people, that you can't live like that. And also tell - how you can.
Damir Kacuba
