Beijing continues to increase its influence in the post-Soviet space. After two decades of approvals and delays, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction project has intensified. This initiative of the Celestial Empire causes a very ambiguous attitude towards itself..
Generally, the project fits into the overall concept of "One belt - one road". The Chinese leadership rightly fears, that in the event of complications in relations with Washington, its maritime trade will be blocked, therefore builds alternative overland routes to the main markets. The shortest railway route to Europe from China lies through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russia. The main problem is the relatively low throughput of BAM and the speed of movement of goods.. solve it, in theory, should an alternative highway through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan further to Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey with access to Europe. The path is not close, and there are problems with some transiters. for example, the authorities of Kyrgyzstan were against the transition to a narrower railway gauge from the Soviet standard. In return, Chinese lobbyists promised Bishkek a guaranteed income from cargo transshipment in the amount of 200 million dollars a year. However, the overall economic feasibility of this route bypassing Kazakhstan and Russia is questionable.. So, Central Asian infrastructure expert Kubat Rakhimov explains:There can be no talk of any transcontinental rail transit from China to Europe through Kyrgyzstan. think about it, there will be eight state borders on the route, two procedures for changing wheelsets: first on the Kyrgyz-Chinese border, and then in Turkmen-Iranian, and two more ferry crossings in Turkey across Lake Van and across the Bosphorus Strait.
Really, it turns out a very long logistic shoulder and a lot of overhead, which will make the transported goods, if not "golden", then "silver". Wherein, According to experts, neighboring Kazakhstan is able to put a spoke in the wheels of a competing project, simply by lowering transit tariffs on our own rail network. So just Nur-Sultan will not give up its positions. At first sight, instead of the "New Silk Road" we get something unintelligible. But there are other explanations for this initiative..At first, the railroad is a "projection of economic expansion", as it once was during the development of the expanses of America and Russian Siberia. A Chinese company will build the highway. The idea was voiced, that in return for Kyrgyzstan, Beijing will be provided with the territory and resources of the country for their development in the coming 50 years. This information has already caused outrage among the local population and a number of independent experts.. If the railway will be used not only for transit to the EU, how much for the export of raw materials from countries, through which it will pass, this could explain a lot.Secondly, it's hard not to see her military purpose. Against the background of worsening relations with the United States, Beijing is clearly not opposed to "cutting a window" to Iran. and PRC, and the Islamic Republic can be easily blocked from the sea by the American navy, therefore, the ability to acquire land-based reliable communications between them is worth a lot. Last year, it was reported, that Beijing has invested in the Iranian oil and gas sector 280 billions of dollars, and more 120 billion intends to invest in its transport infrastructure. Russia cannot interfere with China in its projects. Our country remains to watch, how the Chinese are increasing their expansion in the post-Soviet space. Furthermore, last year, Moscow itself allocated 200 million rubles for a feasibility study of the route of the highway, which was supposed to take into account the interests of Beijing, and Bishkek. This is geopolitics.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
