military experts
EnglishРусский中文(简体)FrançaisEspañol
Set as default language
 Edit Translation

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

happened. The continuous systematic preparation of the United States for an offensive nuclear war with the first strike finally provoked a visible response from the top political leadership of Russia.

2 June 2020 years, the president signed decree No. 355 “On the fundamentals of the Russian Federation’s nuclear deterrence policy”. As usual, the non-specialized press noticed only a part of important nuances, and the main, "ideological", missed completely.

But the Western media extremely lightly and superficially covered this event., and on a very small scale.

Meanwhile, there is something to notice.

The new approach

Previously there were no open, public documents, concerning nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile, having such a guidance document is very important.. Being signed by the Supreme Commander, he sets the framework for the Supreme High Command and, in fact, determines the strategy for the whole country. He shows the masses and politicians of the lower levels those boundary conditions, which we determine for ourselves. It also contains a message for "partners" regarding, what lines should they run, if you don’t want to see the end of their world with your own eyes. properly, mandatory publicity - from this. And do not think, that this decree is an element of some kind of propaganda. This is not true. This is truly a framework document of the national nuclear strategy.. What is especially important, so this is an indication in the text of the document that, that he is the basis for “nuclear planning”.

Previously, there was only one document, where something was explicitly said about Russia's use of nuclear weapons. It was a military doctrine. Let's quote her points, concerning this issue.

"The use of armed forces, other troops and bodies, their main tasks in peacetime, during the period of immediate threat of aggression and in wartime ".

27. The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons against them. (or) its allies of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, as well as in case of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.
The decision to use nuclear weapons is made by the President of the Russian Federation.
Now we have a much more detailed description of the process..

It makes no sense to bring the entire text of the application to the decree here.. We will analyze the basic things.

First and foremost: signs of the very “aggression declared, When it jeopardizes the very existence of the state ".

Section III. Conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the use of nuclear weapons.

19. Terms and conditions, determining the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation are:
a) reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles, attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and(or) her allies;
b) the use by an adversary of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction on the territories of the Russian Federation and(or) her allies;
at) enemy influence on critical state or military installations of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the response of nuclear forces;
g) aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

The Federation Council explained, why the nuclear submarine "Prince Vladimir" cannot be intercepted

What's so interesting and important? Item “c”.

At first, recognized aloud threats of incapacitation by an adversary of systems, allowing Russia to use strategic nuclear forces before the exchange of nuclear strikes. for example, using sabotage (including nuclear) means, with the help of which command posts critical for the country can be attacked, communication centers, locations of persons, entitled to decide on the use of nuclear weapons, missile warning system elements.

Secondly, Russia's right announced to use nuclear weapons in response to such actions.

Apply it first, before the start of nuclear war per se, in the moment, when an adversary is only trying to secure the opportunity to strike with impunity.

In fact, with this clause, Russia announces its right to a PREVENTIVE NUCLEAR KICK. And this is the first time. And this is just the beginning.

It has long been obvious to specialists, that this was going to happen sooner or later. And the reason for this is active preparations for an offensive nuclear war by the United States, going no matter, who currently occupies the White House.

Those interested in the issue can refer to the article "Building a fleet. Special operations: nuclear deterrence ", where is listed, what preparatory actions are the United States, which gives them reason to consider themselves entitled to start an offensive nuclear war, what ideological attitudes of American society make it ethically acceptable and what benefits America will receive as a result of such a war, turn out to be successful.

Obviously, that no demonstration of possible consequences leads to, so that Americans change their minds. And such demonstrations were.

1 Martha 2018 during his address to the Federal Assembly, President Putin demonstrated a number of military systems under development. Among them were three weapon systems, the very logic of the combat use of which (joint combat use) leaves no double interpretations as to, what are they really for.

The first weapon is a hypersonic glider, known today as the "Vanguard". This maneuvering hypersonic unit is well known to Americans.: they showed him many years ago, when the system did not yet have a name and it was still undergoing tests. Then the Americans already destroyed the ABM Treaty, but all other instruments of international security still worked. Demonstration, but, never stopped their cooking, and 1 Martha 2018 year it was shown, what is attached to the "Vanguard".

Dagger missile system with a quasiballistic air-based missile and a laser complex, known today as "Relight". What unites all these systems? the, that together they make no sense in any other case, than in the case of the FIRST nuclear strike on the United States.

And next year during the next message to the Federal Assembly was voiced, that, if necessary, Russia will launch missile strikes at decision centers - and this did not mean ICBM strikes.

That's what Putin said:

I’ll say it directly and openly today, so that no one later blames us for anything, that all was clear in advance, what are we talking about. Russia will be forced to create and deploy weapons, which can be used not only in relation to those territories, with which the corresponding direct threat will come for us, but also regarding those territories, where are the decision centers on the use of missile systems threatening us.
What is important in this regard?, and there is a lot of novelty. According to their tactical and technical data, including flight time to the specified control centers, these weapons will be fully consistent with those threats, which are directed against Russia.
Put the mosaic fragments together.

Offensive forces

There are the following necessary stages of delivering a sudden nuclear strike against an enemy. At first, preparation for it must be carried out discreetly. Secondly, the fact of striking him must be recognized by him at such a moment in time, when it’s too late to react. Thirdly, missile launch fact must be hidden from the enemy. Fourth, before striking, the adversary’s decision-making system should be paralyzed at least temporarily: roughly speaking, he must be beheaded.

How all this helps to achieve new systems?

Secret training of the force, intended to strike, can be done in stages in peacetime. At the same time, ICBMs, on which are the "Vanguards", do not need any special preparations: they are always ready, including in peacetime.

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

"Missile rain" in the Black Sea comes around with a powerful US counterattack

American provocations with bombers, their missile attacks on Russia-friendly countries and other hostile actions allow Russia to increase the degree of combat readiness of individual formations ... and never then reduce it. This way you can get away from actions, unmasking preparation for a hit, such, as, eg, change of operation of radio networks and the like. Everything will be done in stages and in advance..

Peresvet lasers allow blinding US SPRN satellites, preventing them from detecting radiation from torches of missiles launching towards the USA. Daggers are located at airfields very far from potential theater of operations, but if necessary, their carriers reach the launch line in a few tens of minutes. And these flights alone do not pull on a strategic threat. Furthermore, Dagger carrier, MiG-31K, on satellite photos indistinguishable from an interceptor, on the basis of which it was created. And this makes it possible to literally "hide a needle in a haystack" - in advance to "replace" interceptors with drums ready for battle. What will be their goals? American nuclear bombs in Europe, separate military bases in the same place and in Japan.

That’s why this complex is really needed, and that’s what operation it will be in (god forbid) be used. This is not against aircraft carriers; so little arls, which this rocket is equipped with, against mobile naval targets doesn’t give anything much. Yes, and physics, frankly, prevents.

But check the map of the surroundings of Buchel airbase (eg) with the sample card embedded in the GOS missile with the help of this RLGSN, it is possible after deceleration of the missile over the target.

But the Americans also have radar SPRN, So? And they are able to detect a missile strike on the American trajectory itself., So? So.

And here the Vanguard comes to the rescue. According to the official version, its ability to fly in the atmosphere is needed to overcome missile defense. But such a missile defense, which could repulse a volley of our heavy missiles, the United States not only does not have, she won't be. Their missile defense is missile defense to prevent retaliation, and she needs, to be able to strike the first blow, and, if he was successful (and they count on it), then the missile defense system will be able to repel part of that frail return salvo with surviving missiles, that we are capable of.

Then, asks, why do we need "Vanguard"? And then, that it goes much lower, than warheads of conventional design, and early warning radars will detect it almost over the target, when there is simply no time to repel a blow. That's what the possibility of "twenty-magic" flight in the atmosphere is intended for. That's why one glider is put on a heavy rocket instead of several warheads, sacrificing the number of warheads. It's not anti-pro. This is against early warning radar.

Someone will object, that in this case the enemy has time to react. After all, as we are, Americans may regard the blinding of their satellites as the beginning of a war.

Or, even if they don't see it that way, then they will have two or three minutes to organize a counterattack even with the Avangards.

And here comes the need to buy time - just remove faces, decision makers. Not necessarily nuclear weapons. But be sure to remove. At this, to find the responsible person from the list of managers, replacing the president in the event of his death among the Americans, it will take time. But you need something to destroy the desired targets: leaders, some communication nodes, parking of some aircraft. Suddenly, before, how "Peresvet" went into business.

And here you need to remember Putin's words about strikes on decision-making centers. How could such a blow?

look news.

The latest Russian hypersonic missile “zircon” first experienced from a ship - a frigate of the project 22350 “Admiral Gorshkov” fired in January “Zircon” from the waters of the Barents Sea to a ground target at a military training ground.
By ground target. hypersonic missile. Which even corvettes can launch. The Russian fleet cannot fight on equal terms with the American, and yes, it can't, not even equal. But deploying three ships against both coasts of the United States in peacetime may well. And to ensure the launch of missiles from their side - too.

At the same time, the Americans can stably keep their planes over our ship and track its actions in real time. But they can't stop the launch, how to warn about it otherwise, than by disappearing from the screens of their radars. The speed of passing information along the chains of headquarters from the commander, eg, carrier group to the president is very large for such an extraordinary situation. They just don't have time to react.. Everything will happen too fast.

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

Invulnerable Poseidon: when weapons have no analogues in the world

And then everything is just as simple, how scary: "Vanguards" partially eliminate the ground-based retaliatory strike potential and communication systems with submarines, the rest of the ICBMs - the rest ...

Mosaic formed.

What is missing in this scenario? Lacks a solution to the problem of American submarines with ballistic missiles (PLARB). One side, even if we miss them, then a successful strike on the USA, At first, will give us many hours to find them (eg, pre-raised anti-submarine aircraft), and secondly, to the Americans, received a powerful nuclear strike on their territory, there will be nothing to counteract such a search. No one will lift the fighters into the air, to drive out the impudent Russians.

But, on the other hand, The problem is still there and it's huge.: the destructive impact force of these submarines is too great. But so far, nothing special has been done in this direction..

maybe, soon we will see some solution. Described scenario if it happens, then not tomorrow, and after a few years or decades. The strength of the American volley is lower today, than it was before: the Americans donated the power of some of their warheads on Trident missiles, deployed on submarines, planning to use them precisely as a tool for high-precision offensive nuclear strikes. Fall from 100 kiloton to 5 - it's very important, although not all missiles were affected.

Now their return salvo is significantly weaker, though still deadly. Anyway, but something has to happen soon on that front too.

This is what was actually shown to the world.

This is what Putin's words meant: "You didn't hear us, so just listen now".

But the Americans do not hear anyone.

In the latest report from the US Congressional Research Service «Hypersonic weapons. Background and issues for Congress» from 17 Martha 2020 year it is said directly: Russian gliders with a nuclear warhead are difficult to detect with the help of existing technology, the command structure of the US Armed Forces is too slow and will not be able to respond to such an attack. But then it says, that this weapon does not add anything to the existing strategic potential. That is, Putin's message did not reach them..

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

This image from the editors of The Economist was used as an illustration in a report by the Congressional Research Service. Skip ability “under” the detection zone of the early warning radar is obvious. But conclusions are not made
Today we know for sure, how it affected American offensive nuclear preparations: in no way, they continue according to old plans.

We told them, what if they don't stop, then we ourselves will begin preparations for an offensive nuclear war. They didn't understand.

Choice, in fact, not left.

Near future

Faced with US intractability even on such issues, how to prevent nuclear war, Russia, looks like, started to escalate. Experimental "Daggers", apparently, from a technology demonstrator will turn into mass-produced missiles, anyway, the future formation of the first combat air units with these missiles has already been announced. As expected, they will be created in the deepest rear of all possible, close to the chinese border. However, this does not change anything.

"Vanguards" are already getting on ballistic missiles, lasers are already on alert. And so began the creation of a regulatory framework, which governs preparations for nuclear war. While there is only one situation, when a nuclear strike can be delivered preemptively, but all the threats are already listed, Unknown, that non-nuclear countries will be attacked if necessary, the need to achieve surprise in the use of nuclear weapons is doctrinally enshrined.

Much will depend on, Will the United States end up breaking START-3. If yes, then all, this is the end. Just delayed for a while. If at the last moment it is possible to agree, then the possibility of nuclear war will again become purely theoretical, at least, for a while. Until, until American medium-range missiles are in Europe.

Expect, that Russia's nuclear preparations will improve over time.

Currently, the very essence of deterrence is the possibility of guaranteed retaliation. Although one situation, when a nuclear strike is carried out proactively, in the "Basics" already have, but at the heart of it is the understanding of deterrence through retribution.

Russia changes approach to nuclear deterrence

EU demands Turkey to end aggression in Mediterranean, appointing the head of the IRINI Greek

This is what we call our current approach: containment by the threat of retaliation.

Of “Fundamentals”:

Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that the potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) her allies.
The adversary clearly demonstrates complete unwillingness to understand this inevitability. The only rational explanation for this misunderstanding is, Alas, enemy faith, that retaliation can be avoided. Enemy, as it appears, already sentenced everyone.

This means, once a timid sprout in the form of paragraph 19 “c” of section III will one day grow into a new understanding of deterrence as such: no deterrent threat of retaliation, a containment prevention, through the threat to strike first under certain circumstances.

We will find out very soon, what will all this lead to. The brave new world turns out to be just an incredibly dangerous place, but we cannot do something about it.

It remains only to observe the development of events.

Alexander Timohin

A source

                          
Chat in TELEGRAM:  t.me/+9Wotlf_WTEFkYmIy

Playmarket

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 comment
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments