Events in Libya entered another round of seemingly endless spiral. Since, how is this country, virtually destroyed by foreign intervention, was plunged into the chaos of civil war, in it, one and the same scenario unfolds over and over again. A party to the conflict that has been going on for years has launched a “last and decisive” attack on its opponents., they ask for peace, but the representatives of the attacking side, who see themselves as five minutes winners, strongly reject these proposals. Until then, while the roles of opponents do not change exactly the opposite ...
Today, Khalifa Haftar stands for a ceasefire and a peaceful settlement of the conflict, whose Libyan National Army yesterday was almost on the threshold of Tripoli and was preparing to celebrate the victory. Today LNA is knocked out of the suburbs of the capital, she also lost control of a number of other critical facilities, including the city of tarragon. Sirte is at stake, essentially the key to the east of Libya, who still controls Haftar and the country's parliament supporting him. Field Marshal’s affairs are not just bad, but very bad. This is well understood in the Government of National Accord, whose leader Faiz Saraj already considers himself a triumphant, and therefore does not want to hear about reconciliation.
However, everyone understands, that the fate of Libya will ultimately be decided not by these two “statesmen”, whose armed formations can be called armies with a very big stretch. The “grandiose success” of the PNS ensured above all the direct military intervention of Turkey, to which Haftar’s troops, Alas, were unable to effectively counteract, despite all supplies of weapons and equipment. If Ankara continues to continue in the same vein, then the days of LNA can really be counted. Unfortunately, while too much indicates, that this is exactly how it will be.
Turkish military presence
From various sources, information is being received on increasing Turkish military expansion in the country: the arrival of another batch of mercenaries from at least one hundred militants in Libya, recruited in Idlib, new arms smuggling and the like. PNS, for example, openly announced the opening of an “air bridge” with Ankara, which will allow the transfer of weapons for him contrary to the EU's naval mission IRINI, aimed at suppressing such supplies. Even more alarming is the information voiced by Turkish media about the allegedly reached agreement between Ankara and Tripoli on the provision of Al-Vatiy air base and military base in Misrata port for the needs of the Turkish Air Force and Navy.
Nevertheless, do not forget, that far-reaching plans of Recep Erdogan to establish complete military-political control over Libya are of extreme concern and complete rejection not only in Moscow. The European Union is completely unsatisfied with Ankara’s attempts to restore order in the Middle East by force of arms, and her “offensive” launched in the oil-bearing regions of the Mediterranean, threatening to result in a military conflict with Athens. Both countries are part of NATO, but Greece still belongs to the EU. And there the parties clearly demonstrated their choice, appointing Greek Admiral Theodoros Micropoulos as the head of the IRINI mission mentioned above. Hint more than transparent.
Egypt is categorically against the intentions of Turkey. So far, its president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has issued the so-called Cairo Declaration, reconciling parties, which just supports Khalifa Haftar. However, in the case of, if events take a completely nasty turn and there is a real danger of, that under the rule of the PNS (i.e. Ankara) will be the whole of Libyan territory, from the Egyptian side completely different actions may follow. And the military clash with Cairo, having one of the most combat-ready armies in the Middle East today, Turks get too expensive.
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Furthermore, very many geopolitical players are seriously concerned about, that the situation is slipping into the transformation of Libya into Syria sample 2014-2015 years. Information about, that militants of the “Islamic State” and a number of other extremist terrorist organizations of the same kind are active in the ranks of the armed detachments of the PNS, comes regularly from many sources. That revival of the IG * definitely does not need anyone and in any form, including the United States, so far approving and supporting actions of Turkey.
maybe, the last days of negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan will be a salvation for LNA. The Libyan question was clearly discussed on them, however as details, so is the end result of this dialogue, understandably, not disclosed. If two presidents manage to come to some kind of consensus (at least in the framework of the Cairo declaration), then Haftar will have chances to gain a foothold at the current borders, keeping at least the eastern part of the country. And then the parties will again begin to prepare for the next round of the fight ...
Alexander Haraluzhny
