Chinese on Baikal
At the Zhi Hu forum, popular in China (in translation: "Know!») user Xu Shaocheng (Xu Shaocheng), often publishing various analytical materials, 3 Martha 2020 of the year (i.e. relatively recently, amid growing US-Chinese confrontation) published an article entitled "What are the relations between Russia and China?»The content of this material is interesting, one side, weighted author’s ratings, far from official excitement, so from nationalist blasphemy, and on the other hand, the frankness of the Chinese author.
Next is the translation of the text, whose author is Xu Shaocheng.
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Russian-Chinese relations are briefly described as relations of strategic partnership. Paving ways to achieve your future in different ways, China and Russia, basically, want the same thing from this future.
In a common example, China can be compared to a guy with money., and Russia with the red girl. China is looking for high, leggy and pretty for marriage. Russia is pretty, but in her house a rolling ball, and she cannot boast of a prestigious education. So China does not close to Russia, choosing from others, from those, who, besides beauty, there is economy and money. Does not close in China and Russia, looking at other enviable grooms (verbatim: The Phoenix Guys), moreover, it’s not just looking for a home-like, and certainly pliable; China considers it not too frank and not very respectful of it. But at the same time, China and Russia unanimously curse American imperialism, and this common theme for them is a guarantee of the continuity of their relationship.
In this way, relations between both sides come down to, that none of them can completely rely on the other, but no one can do without the other.
Russia's plan to achieve its future is, to control Europe, relying on their energy, and strengthen, "Eating the blood of Europe". China's plan to achieve its future is, that, implementing the “Belt and Way” initiative within the framework of the “New Silk Road” concept and using its industrial superiority, strengthened through business cooperation with backward countries. In such situation, when each side has its own action plan, neither in China, Russia has no advantages, no weaknesses in relations with each other.
Along with large reserves of oil and natural gas in Russia, many untreated fields, but it is only trade in natural resources that can make it rich.
Russia's weak point is the one-sidedness of its economic model. Russia relies on the sale of natural resources, but her economy is so backward, that many Russian enterprises have long been abandoned or idle. The scale of production of many types of heavy industry products in Russia, eg, become, can not be compared with the scale of production in China. Sell weapons so much, to boost your economy, Russia is also not able. And for the sale of civilian products in Russia in the world there are no stable markets.
China has a powerful industrial base and huge opportunities for the industrialization of other countries, China is able to offer any country high-quality and attractively priced industrial products.
China lacks its own natural resources. Although China is one of the first places in the world in terms of cultivated land, most of the harvest in the country goes to domestic consumption, and this type of raw material, like oil, China is forced to import.
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The Russian market is unable to consume China's industrial production, and therefore, China is more likely to rely on the sale of its industrial products, one side, to states, which are richer, than Russia, such, both USA and European countries, and on the other hand, to the states, below Russia in terms of scientific and technological development, such, as various "camps" and African states. In addition, the sale of Chinese industrial products to such backward countries creates the conditions for concluding agreements with them., the essence of which is, what, for example, China is building a railway in a country and gives it to that country, but then over 50 years gets its jackpot from the operation of the constructed railway.
But another problem arises.. US influence in half of such backward countries is stronger, than the influence of Russia and China on them, so, if Russia and China stop Americans from earning on price differences in such countries, The United States may deprive Russia and China of the opportunity to conduct their business there.
However, China can show itself to the Americans, importing most natural resources, the same oil, from those countries, who are subordinate to the United States or to whom the United States gives its instructions, eg, from Angola, from saudi arabia ("Little brother of the USA"), from Iraq or from Oman.
At all, to avoid deep stagnation in relations with the USA and Europe, China should not get too close to Russia. This is the balance of international relations for China.
Russia, too, does not seek to link its fate only with China, even though it has a better geographical position and a more attractive international image, than Russia. If Russia does not soon take control of the European energy market, in its economic development, it will continue to lag behind China, and this lag will increase more and more.
In other words, for Russia, the oil export rate should not be long-term, and the sale of oil is a tool to increase its international status, improving its geopolitical position. In this sense, the decision to send Russian troops to the Middle East was optimal, and cooperation with Turkey on the construction of an oil pipeline is aimed at increasing the share of Russian energy supplies to Europe.
In short, the current state of Sino-Russian relations is as follows, that weakening US control over China, weakening US confrontational policy towards China will lead to the separation of China from Russia. And vice versa, as the US's confrontational policy toward China intensifies, China will be forced to be closer to Russia.
When will the USA reach a certain “point” in its pressure on China, China will inevitably join the alliance, in alliance with Russia, because the Americans simply will not leave him any other choice.
In Russia, the situation is not quite the same, like China. Yes, America now puts pressure on Russia, But the United States does it because, that Russia's state strategy defies American hegemony. Russia, in response, can only show its teeth, watching the changes in the international situation. But when the situation gets to the point, Russia will no longer have a return trip, turn back then for her it will be tantamount to death.
In short, bilateral alliance option, the union of China and Russia cannot be ruled out, but is this option implemented or not, will depend entirely on, how far American imperialism will go in its hostile designs, when he reaches his point in his pressure, after which China and Russia will do so, as deemed necessary.
(When the confrontation with the United States reaches China to the point, reasoned by a Chinese author, China will find salvation for itself in alliance with Russia, that is, actually agree to become a slave, for in the Chinese sense, “union” is always the relationship of the leader and the follower, older and younger, Togo, who submits, and that, who obeys. In other words, for the sake of its own survival, China is ready to sacrifice even the principles of “independence” and “independence” so valued by it in relations with Russia. Interesting, that the Chinese author does not even consider the option of "saving" Russia by China in that case, if the confrontation with the Americans reaches the point now and she, giving Russia the opportunity to somehow, without china, decide your fate in a hypothetical battle with America. - AND. Sh.).
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Today, American imperialism is stepping up its pressure step by step, and China and Russia are drawing closer together. for example, at 2018 year, their bilateral trade increased by about 30% compared with 2017 year. The military exercises of China, Russia and Iran.
Regarding the long-term outlook of Sino-Russian relations, I am positive. For before, how Russia will establish final control over Europe, she will never conflict with China. As for China, then for a sufficiently long term he will need only Russian food and Russian natural resources, to some extent, in military cooperation with Russia.
I tend to, that American imperialism will weaken. However, if he does not burst himself, Russia will not be able to drive him out of Europe.
In this way, relations between Russia and China for a long time, certainly, will range from the “formal proximity” of the two countries to their “alliance”.
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After reading this material by a Chinese author, I became even stronger in the long-acquired knowledge: China's approach to relations with Russia is distinguished by naked pragmatism, sometimes bordering on selfish consumerism. Seeing in Russia the only support in the confrontation with ruthless America, China is ready to tolerate the economic failure of Russia and its subconscious distrust of its eastern neighbor. It is precisely because of the growing confrontation with the United States and for no other reason that China is now increasingly showing friendliness to Russia, but in a critical situation, is, admits even “union” with her.
Still noteworthy is, that the confrontation of China with the USA, like his rapprochement with Russia, - processes for China are exclusively forced. Actually China, probably, it would be much more interesting to get close to a successful and wealthy America, not with unsuccessful Russia. And only harsh reality makes him quarrel with that, who is sweet to his heart, and get closer to, who causes a feeling of internal disgust.
That's why, deciding to be friends with China, it is necessary to take into account not only his state solidarity with Russia in dislike of “American imperialism”, but also its genuine, exclusively situational approach to “strategic partnership” with her.
Shitov Alexander Viktorovich
