One of the districts. Consciousness, battle casualty, 2015 g. Фото Wikimedia Commons
Since February 2015 g. troops of several coalition countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are fighting on the territory of independent Yemen. The Arab coalition and part of the Yemeni army loyal to it are confronting the large paramilitary group Ansar Allah. (its fighters are collectively known as the Houthis), parts of the Yemeni armed forces and small formations. The official goal is to restore legitimate authority.
Viral truce
The fighting continued with varying success from the beginning 2015 city, but the tasks were never solved. The interventionists won several notable victories, but for every successful battle there were failures. Eventually, despite continued fighting in different regions of Yemen, the overall situation is far from a complete victory for one of the parties.
8 April 2020 g. The Arab coalition announced a two-week truce. The current COVID-19 epidemic was cited as the reason for stopping the fighting. 25 April the coalition extended the truce. At the request of the UN, fighting will not resume for several weeks. This decision is explained by the desire to “ease the suffering of the brotherly Yemeni people” and prevent the spread of infection during the holy month of Ramadan.
However, the fire didn't stop, and various skirmishes are still ongoing. Besides, new full-scale strikes took place. Whether the parties will be able to agree on a real cessation of hostilities is a big question.
Official and factual
Considering the activities of the coalition over all years of the operation, it is difficult to suspect Riyadh of having a good attitude towards the “brotherly people of Yemen”. When solving their military-political problems, the Arabian and other armies did not constrain themselves in methods or in choosing targets for strikes. In fact, over the course of several years, a significant part of the civilian infrastructure was destroyed, which led to known fatal consequences for the population.
Exhibition of advanced Houthi weapons, 2019 g. Iranian samples are widely represented. photo Imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Despite all efforts and the most brutal measures, the main task of the operation has not been solved. The coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis in five years and, probably, will never cope with them again. At the same time, the Arab armies continue to spend money, and also lose people and equipment. And recent events in the energy market and the fall in income of the “oil powers” of the Middle East are becoming an additional threat to their interests.
Considering all this, It can be assumed, that Saudi Arabia declared a “virus truce” due to the desire to exit an expensive and useless conflict, but at the same time “save face”, as much as possible. Other coalition members may also leave the war behind Riyadh, experiencing similar problems.
Army vs militia
probably, the command of the Arab coalition initially did not see any threats to itself in the Yemeni intervention. On 2014-15 gg. the rebels from Ansar Allah represented a fairly large, but not a very well armed and trained force. Maximum number of Houthis, According to various estimates, not exceed 150-200 thousand. human, assembled mainly into infantry detachments.
TO 2015 g. and some units of the Yemeni armed forces went over to the side of the rebels, due to which the militia was strengthened with significant amounts of equipment, incl. armored, weapons, etc.. It was also possible to recapture materiel in battles with loyalists, but even after this, the Ansar Allah detachments bore little resemblance to the modern army. However, The Houthis managed to take control of the capital of the country.. Consciousness.
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Saudi tank M1A2S Abrams and ARV M88A1, became trophies of the Houthis in September 2015 g. Photo Lostarmour.info
According to various reports, Almost from the very beginning of the fighting - even before the arrival of the coalition - the Houthis were helped by Iranian structures and Hezbollah.. They supplied the Allies with weapons and equipment, ammunition and medicine, and also sent military advisers, supplied intelligence, etc.. However, officially Iran, and Hezbollah deny involvement in the conflict.
At first 2015 g. the coalition sent a fairly large contingent to Yemen, represented by different branches of the military. At different times the group included up to 150-170 thousand. military personnel from different countries. They had hundreds of ground combat vehicles, artillery, aviation, etc.. Navy ships were used in some operations.
Lost Benefits
The coalition had every reason to consider the outcome of the intervention predetermined. Several armies assembled a large interspecific group with modern equipment, which was opposed by hastily prepared rebels. However, such predictions did not come true, and it wasn't an easy walk. It became clear quickly enough, that the Houthis, with supposed foreign support, are able to resist not only the weak Yemeni army, but also the foreign coalition.
According to the interventionists, over five years of fighting, several tens of thousands of rebels were killed, however it is not entirely clear, How true is this data?. Coalition casualties could reach 5-7 thousand. human, however, official data and estimates on this matter vary greatly.
There is still a whole Leclerc tank of the UAE army. This car was destroyed 23 January 2017 g. Photo Lostarmour.info
The situation with armored vehicles looks very interesting. Combat vehicles of different classes repeatedly changed owners or died on the battlefield. Besides, It is customary for the Houthis to demonstrably destroy some captured samples - to improve their image and damage the reputation of the enemy.
Before the intervention began, the Yemeni army had approximately 450 T-54/55 tanks, 200 newer T-62 and several hundred other vehicles, from T-34-85 to M60A1 and T-80BV. There were also samples of all other classes. During the battles, hundreds of tanks and other combat vehicles changed owners and became the property of Ansar Allah..
Lost Armor Database reports, that in five years of fighting, all participants in the conflict lost more than 290 tanks of different types. More than a third of this number comes from loyalist equipment from the Yemeni army. The Houthi rebels lost a similar amount of equipment.. OK. 50 The Saudi Arabian army lost tanks. Enemy tanks were destroyed by all available means, from mines to aviation.
If in the case of the Yemeni army and rebels most of the losses were obsolete T-54/55, then the interventionists suffered more offensive losses. The Saudi Arabian army was left without 15-20 M1A2S Abrams main tanks. C 2015 g. The United Arab Emirates Army lost three Leclerc tanks.
Results of a Yemeni UAV raid on Saudi Aramco facilities at the Abqaiq field, 14 September 2019 g. Digital Globe satellite image
It is also necessary to note the noticeable losses of the coalition in other ground equipment, airplanes, helicopters, UAV, weapons, etc.. Several incidents involving the defeat and destruction of warships and auxiliary vessels look especially interesting.. The “poor and ill-prepared” Houthis managed even such goals.
Little of, not without the support of third countries, Ansar Allah regularly conducts missile attacks on remote targets, incl. on the territory of enemy countries. Of particular interest is the attack 14 September 2019 city, when Houthi UAVs attacked Saudi Aramco oil infrastructure facilities on Arabian territory. This operation showed the potential of the Houthis, and also hit the enemy’s economy.
Strong versus weak
Having certain information about the main events of the current war, can be understood, why the Arab coalition, least, cannot defeat Yemen's Houthis, and in some cases fails. Several explanations can be found for these phenomena., affecting both sides of the conflict.
The strength of the coalition armies is the availability of modern foreign equipment and support from developed countries. In the same time, weapons do not always meet current challenges, and its operators cannot boast of good training and skills. This leads to excessive losses in ambushes, to the inability to repel a UAV raid, etc..
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Results of a Houthi attack on a coalition convoy near the Saudi-Yemen border, September 2019 g. There are a lot of other broken equipment left behind the scenes. photo Imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Ansar Allah units are lagging behind in terms of equipment, and even supplies from third countries cannot radically change the situation. In the same time, The Houthis know the area well and enjoy the support of the population. They also learn quickly, take into account the enemy’s mistakes and actively use the help of military advisers. As experience has shown, it is extremely difficult to fight such a force.
On the threshold of the world?
Over the past five years, the Arab coalition has spent enormous amounts of money on the war in Yemen.. Personnel losses continue, weapons and other materiel. The risk of new enemy attacks on critical targets remains. At the same time, the set military-political tasks have not been solved - and the possibility of their solution is doubtful. Against the backdrop of all this, the “oil powers” are suffering losses due to falling prices for their main product.
The coalition has a direct interest in ending useless fighting, leading to senseless losses and unjustified risks. April Truce, announced for two weeks, and then extended for another month, could be the first step to exit the war. However, now Riyadh and its allies need to convince the Houthis from Sanaa to sit down at the negotiating table and determine the conditions for an end to the war and a post-war order.
So far, none of the warring parties has been able to completely solve all their problems., and the enemy directly interferes with obtaining the desired results. However, practice has already shown, that even the poorly equipped Houthis are quite capable of defeating well-armed interventionist armies. The latter should take this into account - and draw the right conclusions, providing for withdrawal from Yemen and cessation of fighting. Only this will protect them from new losses, and will also provide real assistance to the “brotherly people”.
Kirill Ryabov
