Revenue reduction in 170 countries of the world will negatively affect the global economy, believes associate professor of economic security, RANEPA Pavel Gribov.
The global economy is in crisis
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, that the global crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a reduction in population incomes 170 states and territories. It is almost the whole world, since today the United Nations 193 member, even if in reality there are a little more state actors in the world.
This is a serious stress for the global economy., not least because, that three months ago the IMF expected real income growth in 160 countries of the world.
"Now then, with regard to demand reduction - this is a new phenomenon for the global economy. In fact, we are dealing with a situation, when the whole world economy is paused for two months, ie. processes stopped, which before, it was thought, just can’t interrupt. This is the logistics and production of certain types of products., and much more. We also see, how individual industries completely stop for a long period of time - this can be said about civil aviation ”, – states Mushrooms.
World transport discontinued due to closure of US tourism markets, China and European states. This led to, what is such a company, как Boeing, put on the brink of bankruptcy. And this will not happen just because, that the US government has prepared tens of millions of dollars of tranches in the national aviation industry, including as aircraft manufacturers, both civil carriers.
“Today the situation, when air travel between countries declined sharply, moreover, one problem in the global economy gives rise to another. And how will we deal with all this, nor the IMF, nor the World Bank, nor do national governments know today ”, – summarizes Mushrooms.
As Mushrooms notes, even on the example of the aviation industry we see a multiplier effect, when the stoppage of flights led to the cessation of aircraft production, lower fuel consumption and many related problems. Indeed, largely because of this, oil prices are at record low levels..
“We are witnessing, that the global economy is stopping, collapsing, like a house of cards, and it is not clear, where to wait for the next negative effect. Therefore, the restart of individual industries and individual industries is subjective and does not affect the overall negative trend. unknown, when we get back to the beginning 2020 of the year, when there were no coronavirus effects yet ”, – concludes Mushrooms.
No one will hide from global problems
What is the decline in real income, we see perfectly in Russia - we have had this process since the end 2014 year on 2018 year, and at the beginning 2020 years this problem has not been fully resolved.
This led to an increase in the debt burden of the population., low economic growth, since in such conditions it is impossible to stimulate demand, and, Consequently, general stagnation processes in the national economy.
And if the situation in Russia is local in nature and is largely due to external factors, then coronavirus will give the entire global economy a single systemic problem.
“The situation will worsen for those, who had problems before. Moreover, today we see, that stimulating national economies is on the path to even greater increase in public debt. And to such countries, like italy, debt nowhere to increase - there are already completely unrealistic values, outrageous indicators, and how things with Italian debt will develop further is not entirely clear. The second example is Japan with its equally huge debt.. It is not clear, how can one stimulate the economy in such a situation? ”, – states Mushrooms.
The most odious example is the financial policies of US President Donald Trump., who decided to print more 4 billion dollars to fight the crisis, but experts say, that this option will not help the Americans, as it was during times of difficulty 1973 and 2008 years. USA remains the leading country in the world, so if the american economy continues to collapse, then everyone will feel it, including Russia.
“Japan and Italy are difficult to compare in terms of the scale of the disaster - the Italians are much worse, but those decisions, which the World Bank and national banks offer today, have many questions on their practical implementation. If before 2020 years, problems in Western economies were more or less solved, then the coronavirus nullified everything, and he does not make a difference between states ”, – summarizes Mushrooms.
The world will come out of the crisis for a long time
Today it’s not even clear, how long will it take, so that the global economy returns to that state, which was, it would seem, more recently, ie. in January-February 2020 of the year.
“It all depends on, when a pandemic and quarantine measures end in the world. If earlier all forecasts were based on, that the pandemic will stop at about the same time, ie. first it will be in China, and then in the USA, EU and Russia, it’s obvious today, that countries will come out of the situation differently. One thing - Germany, other - Russia, the third is the USA and other states ”, – concludes Mushrooms.
As a result, we will not get a V-shaped state, ie. when the world economy abruptly falls into crisis and abruptly emerges from it, because of which all this can become long-term.
Dmitry Sikorski
