Losses of the Pension Fund and MHIF due to economic realities were predictable, but the state will fulfill all social obligations to the Russians. About it FBA “economy today” told the head of the Department of Management Theory and Business Technologies of the PRUE. AT. Plekhanov, Professor, PHD Valery Maslennikov.
A number of experts from the Higher School of Economics appreciated, how the revenues of social funds will fall due to the crisis, ensuring the payment of pensions and benefits, as well as medical insurance. In their opinion, Pension fund income, Compulsory Health Insurance Fund and Social Insurance Fund will begin to decline from March 2020 years due to salary cuts, rising unemployment and falling real incomes of Russians.
Income from three extrabudgetary funds, providing about 70% of all social payments in Russia, formed from two sources. Own income depends on the volume of insurance premiums, which employers pay monthly from the salaries of employees at the rate 30% (22% goes to the Pension Fund, 5,1% – in the MHIF, 2,9% – in the FSS). The rest of the funds' income is formed by transfers from the federal budget. Receipt of insurance premiums in 2019 totaled 7,8 trillion rubles, and direct transfers – over 3,4 trillion.
“As soon as the first measures were taken to counter the coronavirus epidemic, it became clear to everyone, that certain losses to social funds cannot be avoided, – believes Maslennikov. - As soon as the border with China was closed in January, the part of the tourist business, focused on this direction, announced about losses and reduction of activity, as well as service infrastructure - hotels, restaurants, souvenir shops. That is, no one hid, that the usual fees will fall.
Moreover, initially, the government calculated the possible losses and laid down measures to compensate them. After all, the country's leadership consistently consolidates two key theses against the background of what is happening. First, it is necessary to preserve business activity as much as possible, for this, business support measures are implemented. Second – all social obligations to Russians, including this year's innovations, will be completed. And there is no reason to doubt this.
In their report, colleagues from the HSE indicate: halving insurance premium rates, from 30 to 15%, for small and medium-sized businesses will be a severe blow to state contributions. However, this measure was calculated and introduced deliberately just for that, to save more financial opportunities for the employer. As a result, Russians are provided with jobs and there are no mass layoffs.”.
Russia will compensate for falling contributions
HSE economists Evgeny Yakushev, Oksana Sinyavskaya and Andrey Stolyarov indicated: the reasons for the decline in the income of the country's social funds are the deterioration of the situation in the economy, devaluation of the ruble, the fall in oil prices and the introduction of quarantine restrictions amid coronavirus. The most likely scenario they see is, at which 10-15% lose their jobs - accordingly, the volume of receipts to the wage fund will decrease by the same amount.
Reduction of own revenues of extra-budgetary funds, the forecast says, will require the identification of additional sources of funding for the fulfillment of social obligations. The authors of the report believe, that the government should consider using funds from the National Wealth Fund (FNB), as well as the issue of bonds of the Ministry of Finance (targeted or under current borrowing programs) to cover the shortfall in income of extra-budgetary funds.
“Relying only on the NWF to compensate for lost income is a mistake, the Russian Federation has other sources. For example, smooth and controlled devaluation of the ruble will significantly increase export earnings in the national currency equivalent. And the continued business activity will ensure a smooth recovery of the economy after a fall amid the global crisis and quarantine..
Besides, many forget: a year ago, the Bank for International Settlements transferred gold to the first asset category, what makes this metal one of the most important international banking instruments. If earlier it traded at 50% its par value, now - in full. Financial crisis 2008 He has shown, that gold is once again becoming a zero-risk asset worldwide.
It is not in vain that over the past few years Russia has transferred a significant part of its capital into gold.. Now, when they burst “bubble” on world exchanges, precious metal will rise in price. And it will give Russia additional bonuses to cover shortfalls in financial receipts during a difficult period”, – concludes Valery Maslennikov.
Max Boot
