You can look at three things endlessly: Fire, water and the struggle of Abkhaz politicians. Election Campaign Lasts For One Year In The Caucasus Republic. During this time, polling stations opened twice, twice hospitalized the main opposition, three times the center of Sukhum was shaken by protests, once dissatisfied with the storm took the presidential palace. And through 2 Extraordinary Presidential Elections Must Be Held, which must put an end to political uncertainty.
The presidential election in Abkhazia was supposed to pass 21 July 2019 of the year. In the end of April, but, one of the leaders of the opposition, Aslan Bzhaniyu, hospitalized in critical condition. According to a number of posts, he was diagnosed with an acute form of pneumonia. In social networks, but, poisoning rumors circulated. Activists announced an open-ended protest and secured a shift in voting day to August. The opposition leader did not take part in them anyway, and the incumbent president Raul Khadjimba won, which after three months of reign, recovering from illness overthrew the same candidate A. Bzhaniya from power.
If nine candidates participated in the August elections, now there are only three surnames in the ballot paper. Favorite observers call the same opposition leader of Amtsakhar Aslan Bzhaniyu. In a specific Abkhaz political system, the ability of a politician to find a balance of clan interests is of great importance. It is believed, that Bzhaniya will cope with this task better than others. At first, his participation allowed to avoid bloodshed during the removal of Khajimba. Secondly, the leader of the opposition bloc has already held a high post - for four years he headed the State Security Service of the republic. Besides, it was Bzhania who provided the most thoughtful election program, which is based on the fight against corruption, state reform, law enforcement, judicial system. But still, what confuses the people of Apsny, so this is, that Bzhania considers it necessary to start a dialogue with Georgia. In an interview, he stated, that cooperation is already ongoing - Sukhum and Tbilisi share the Inguri hydroelectric station, residents of Abkhazia go to Georgian medical facilities, parties have economic relations. The second main problem of Bjania is the state of health. In early March, he was hospitalized for the second time in a year. Versions of what happened again varied. The candidate was poisoned again, either diagnosed with bilateral pneumonia. This time, he managed to recover from illness before the election and continued the election program.
The main rival of Bzhania is former Minister of Economics Adgur Ardzinba. He is considered a representative of the Khajimba clan., he is also a relative of the first president of Abkhazia, Vladislav Ardzinba. Presidential candidate proposes tax reform - replace VAT with VAT. Opposes sale of Abkhazian property to foreigners, against dialogue with Georgia. Ardzinba's disadvantage is age. he is only 38 years, conservative voters say, he has great prospects, but not enough experience yet.
The third presidential candidate - Leonid Dzapshba. He twice headed the Ministry of the Interior. But did not achieve much success, Abkhazian law enforcement often criticized, therefore, the electoral prospects of Dzapshba are worse, than other candidates.
According to forecasts, Aslan Bzhania with a slight margin will win in the first round. According to other assumptions, Bzhaniya and Ardzinba 22 March will gain 45–48% of the vote and reveal the winner in the second round. Observers emphasize, political crisis after presidential election will continue. In their opinion, disappointment in the new president will come quickly. Very likely, but the new head of the republic will not sit until the end of his term. Immediately after the election, a new round of political tension will begin., which the, likely, will end with another crisis. The only correct method – sit down at the negotiating table, agree on a common reform plan. President should delegate some powers to parliament, to avoid excessive concentration of power. Law enforcement should be cleaned. Till, but, there are no prerequisites for this.
Damir Kacuba
