The depreciation of the ruble and the rise of the world currency may negatively affect the cost and quality of goods, implemented in the Russian Federation, I told FBA “economy today” economist Dmitry Adamidov.
The market faced a sharp collapse in oil prices on Monday, 9 Martha 2020 of the year. Colossal changes occurred after the conflict, emerged after unsuccessful negotiations of the OPEC + countries. Participants completed the deal, without agreeing on an extension, nor about changing the existing conditions.
note, that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell below $40, and the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is lower $30. Against this background, on the international market, the rates of world currencies soared against the ruble, so the dollar is now worth 68,57 rubles, and the euro - 77,51 rubles.
“The situation in the Russian Federation will now directly depend on the policy of the Central Bank, which the, if you remember, at 2014-2015 year by his actions caused a strong public panic. During that period, people thoughtlessly bought up various goods in unlimited quantities ", - commented the economist.
Recall, The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation made a statement that, that the National Welfare Fund is able to compensate budget losses within ten years, up to a drop in the price of oil to $25-30.
“The Russian Federation is really able to wait out the sharp drop in oil prices and cope with the consequences. However, the question remains as to whether, how the central bank will operate, because he has foreign exchange reserves in the amount $570 billion, which would prevent the ruble from falling. But so far it is impossible to predict, will the main regulator spend them, after all, it is he who completely controls the situation ", - explained the source.
note, that Russia has several resources, which will cover possible budget losses from a further drop in oil prices.
Local excitement - how the population will react
The expert community suggests, that the Russians will react painfully to the fall in the ruble exchange rate - there is a risk of excitement around certain types of goods.
“If in the near future there are no catastrophic events in the world markets, then the situation can stabilize, and the population will calm down. However, in the current period, society may panic and begin to actively purchase goods ", - said the expert.
Besides, economist predicts growth in the cost of imported goods, despite, that their number in the Russian Federation has significantly decreased.
“Prices will certainly rise. Moreover, any change in the exchange rate provokes retailers to increase the cost.. But in the absence of an increase in purchasing power, likely, the quality of goods will decrease, who will sell overpriced. maybe, there will be a gradual replacement of some goods for lower quality ", - explained the source.
Dmitry Adamidov is sure, that the current situation with the oil price is a prelude to big bargaining, deliberately provoked by the struggle for the market and the behavior of Saudi Arabia, The "threatened" Russian Federation and other countries to increase oil production to a historical maximum.
Continued story: OPEK +
Currently unknown, when will the next meeting of the OPEC + countries take place and how events will develop further. Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak, noted, that the heads of state did not discuss the date of new negotiations, which, as it appears, will depend on the speed of the spread of coronavirus in the world and the behavior of other countries in the oil market.
“Perhaps after the appointment of a date for a new meeting, Russia will consider looking for some kind of compromise in order to, to positively influence the solution of the arisen problems. I hope, that the current situation will not become a catalyst for repeating the scenario 2014-2015 of the year, when the society was gripped by panic due to changes in the exchange rate ", - said the source.
Alexander Melnik
