"Error Saakashvili" by Erdogan
Turkish President went to these negotiations is not with those of reinforcement position arguments, I hoped to have. When the Turks undertaken a whole confusion with Idlib, they counted on, that Russia will not get in the way, Russian contingent relatively small in number, Russia itself away from Syria (but Turkey close, and there is not considered), Russia values cooperation with the Turks, and will not go to his rupture or exacerbation. A Syrian Arab army (Farm) weakened by years of war, and the Turkish Forces, together with the wards are gangs of banned in the Russian Federation and other terrorist HTSH (and “moderate”, It differs slightly from “official” terrorists) structures, can not resist. In addition, Turkey is clearly overestimated the capabilities of their armed forces in general and in particular of the contingent, which sent the Turks in Idlib.
Generally, Erdogan made the typical “Saakashvili's mistake”, with the only difference, Saakashvili pushed her from Washington, but who has pushed Erdogan - a big issue until. Whether he thought of, whether it's someone from the former, but who have achieved recognition of their loyalty, putschists, eg, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, one of “locomotives” Power interventionist policy in Syria and Libya, either all together come to this. But in the end the Turks themselves did those rakes, and which came.
Russia unexpectedly tough position
Everything went wrong. The Syrian army is not afraid of Turkish threats and did not listen to the requirements of a successful offensive, and to stop the move “for Sochi line”. Turks these requirements up to yesterday's talks have advanced and constantly threatened, if they do not listen, force to achieve its. But in the end these threats began to sound like some kind of background noise such as the Kiev promises of politicians and generals about “coming victory” over Russia, returning Crimean and Donbass etc.. Why did not the Syrians feared, understandably.
Contrary Turks dreams Russia immediately took a very strong position and firmly supported its ally, having gone on risk and break ties with Turkey, and direct military conflict, and, Furthermore, actively using force against the Turks. In this first warning about the possibility of Turkish “worst-case scenario” as our direct participation, in which they initially did not believe. Turkish units, Mixed with battle formations of terrorists or are not agreed to by the, places of location (observation posts, where exactly 12, with the number of personnel to the company, and they are mostly in the rear of the CAA), once were threatened to inflict fire and rocket-bomb destruction, and on the part of the Syrians, and by artillery and air forces group (forces) (GW(from)) c MONTH. This applies to 32 “self-proclaimed” platoon “Supervisory” Settlements, a, in fact, platoon reference points, Only located on the normal GP in terms of settlement and fortification as far, like the stars from Earth. And other Turkish contingent in Idlib, which, of course, not typed on “mechanized division”, about which we said recently in our MO, but at the brigade, likely, in the amount of recruited. The Turks also were at least indirectly involved in the death of 4 our snipers from SPC FSB 1 February near Aleppo, and it is also written Statement “black mark”.
Receive from Russia, but not from Russia
Ankara grow exorbitant appetites
Turks almost immediately start “arrive” and by aviation, and Artillery, and easy to understand, someone, not always, of course. And on the rise - the tower fell, the point of dislocation, the artpozitsii, and eventually got and staff, which caused the death of officially 36 Turk, and informally themselves Turks call numbers 56-65 and to 100 human. List of Turkish army losses began to grow rapidly, and, neither the Turks tried to cheat with losses, already beginning to emerge in Turkey various lists of the dead, at times different from officialdom (eg, one of them 156 surnames, and these people actually died in the army, question, when and where). It reached and the application of the BR Turks “Point-In”, already the Syrian army, and RSZO “Tornado”. In the end, the Turks abandoned the practice of direct support to the militants and took part of the deeper forces deep into the territory controlled, without stopping, however, harassing artillery fire.
Turks, of course, not recognized and will never recognize, they mostly got it from Russia, even when the frame across Russian bombers in a characteristic only for videoconferencing color. all because, and that the answer will come when Russia, which is exactly the same agrees with the Turks, that it had nothing to do. And the answer is already in Russia it can be much different, but certainly not only an economic, but this time explicitly military. And in Turkey, obviously, understood, that Russia will not be limited only to the home on the Syrian theater, and then the Turks will not save any NATO. Yes and NATO, generally, Turks wished “stay and good mood”, and in words, even a declarative statement of the alliance was vetoed by longtime friends Turks from Greece. US also does, except idle talk, not to score. Turks, if something was calculated, obviously forgotten 2015 year - then it was the same. Well, it's not Libya or Syria, the most thing to have, here Russia, and this “completely different”, he loves to talk of liberal orientation of public. What were allied commitments?
Yes, and the fighting capacity of the Turkish army was much lower than expected. Even to enter in Idlib Turkish General Staff had “pull off” two battalion tactical groups already brigade of the 1st Army, in particular, from the same 65th Mechanized Brigade, and those who suffered the greatest losses until cross-sectional Turks in shock 27 February. Rest, including teams of “militancy” 4-it housing, at war with Kurdish guerrillas, apparently, We were not combat ready. It turned, that the Turkish army is very badly and managed - grouping in Idlib has a large “clay” in the passage of briefs and reports to top, the headquarters in the border Hatay, and in passing orders from the top down, and it has a problem in the supply of. Moreover and precision-guided munitions from the Turks was much less, than it needed even for small-scale operations.
broken card
Power the Turks arguments “did not play”. saturation practice their militias, quite disgusting, armored vehicles, did not give anything - artillery CAA and Russian, as well as aviation, it was deeply “up to the lantern”, Adventure travel HTSH in aluminum cans ACV-15 and M113, or that the trucks with booking, which HTSH, using the same Turks, rework commercially, or is it the Soviet BMP-1. Similarly, there was no difference, T-62 supports attack, or M60 any level upgrading (they also penetrated and burned better). It did not help, and Turkish “zagradotrяdы”, stimulating strongly demotivate permanent lesions bearded bandits fight. Artillery support was, and, coupled with intelligence UAV, which at first hardly touched, CAA has caused some damage, but not so, as we would like.
The only argument, which allowed for a short period of Turkish terrorist troops to turn the tide - it's shock UAV (UBPLA), in the absence of an army air defense, where the Syrians are simply not needed before, who caused a short-term, but very decent loss. And that is, that militants and Turkish “Holiday Travelers” It managed to advance in the area of the M5 highway and Neirab and Sarakiba, is there some more “merit” themselves SAA, which replaced its main impact of the, 25-Panzer Specialty (25 DSpN) “Tiger forces” and 5th Assault Volunteer Corps (5 DSK) in this district, sending them to the south of Idlib, in parts, are not champions of the CAA for the resistance in defense. And that, When GW headquarters(from) in Hmeymime as the guiding operation reacted excesses Turkish, its way to the front ZRPK “shell”, SAM “Buk-M2” and others, equipping of the gunners with MANPADS and ensuring that electronic countermeasures, deleterious effect on small UAVs and to create problems and large UBPLA, Turkish Gambit with drones quickly ended. Turkish drone fleet suffered heavy losses quickly and sharply reduced its activity. And the Syrians, instead of, to flee to Damascus, how about this dream in Ankara, Idlib and Ukraine, somehow abruptly began to learn to dig in and blacked. Better be, of course, They studied this before, of course. But better late, than never.
Veteran of the fighting in the run-up 8 March called the main female weapon
The very same Turkish army, Frankly, I have not made the same impression, which created its many “fans” among analysts: Turks showed, that they are just very uneducated and arrogant warriors, who can not create and do not love any normal field fortifications, no masking positions, no normal deployment of troops and weapons, reducing losses from artillery fire and rocket-bomb destruction. And mistakes, they committed, even arrogance is difficult to explain, in fact already dealt with the Kurds, and the terrorists of the banned we LIH. Locate the very long-range 155-mm self-propelled guns in 5-6 kilometers from the front line, even where they are vulnerable to mortar, it is normal for “the second NATO army”. And having made themselves self-propelled guns in a heap. It is seen, and this is also the norm for all NATO? As well as the neglect of the basics of camouflage and field fortifications? Even the Ukrainian warriors, despite their very muddled understanding of Soviet Charter, they tried to forget, but it did not work, You could teach the Turks in this matter. But it should be noted. that Turkish artillery fired quite well, while stocks corrected projectiles did not show the bottom - otherwise I would not ask for precision-guided munitions from the United States.
Generally, as soon as “unmanned factor” He was driven into a certain frame, and CAA position closed hastily created, but the army air defense system, and the extermination started UBPLA, obviously, and aviation, - immediately fell efficiency and artillery fire, and almost disappeared pressure, which is provided on the unstable Syrians these devices. In addition, once they were thrown into the battle, who knows how to attack and win - 25 DSpN, 5 DSK, “Hezbollah”, Palestinians from “Liwa al-Quds” and so on. As a result, by the end of the negotiations managed to regain almost all in the important area of the intersection of the M4 and M5 near Neirab and Sarakiba, except the Neirab, and on the south, even if not all, but played back.
The choice between bad and worse
The Turks faced a difficult choice. The escalation of hostilities will lead to an escalation from our side. And do not rule out the possibility of continuing “indirect hostilities” from our side, when the Turks will continue to provide accurate and heavy blows from “Syrian” artillery and aircraft, but in a completely different scale, while the loss has reached an extremely unpleasant quantities without any visible success. The gap of economic ties with Russia and does not need Turkey - its economy is not in the best condition, it can finish it.
Yes, offensive CAA has been contained, but because no one planned to erase all “green spots” with Syria cards this time. The plan was to fight off the M5 highway, vital to Syria's economy and its conventional locomotive - Aleppo. City, of course, badly damaged, but not all, industry and so still preserved, but getting there was a long and uncomfortable. The plan was to recapture the main fertile areas under the control of militants. This task, as well as the return of the M5, formed. Later, when it became clear, that the resistance fighters very weakened, the desire to pick up a south and Idlib, and M4. But the city of Idlib and slopes, hardly anyone had hoped to return at this stage of the war. The key question, which excites and Turks, that already understand, that the game is lost, and Damascus: what to do with the crowds of bearded thugs, their families, which is not much better, and those, who lived quite comfortably with the Islamist government? Damascus such “fellow citizens” (among which are full of foreigners) gift is not surrendered, in Turkey they need nothing more than a dog the fifth leg. Anyway, You need some habitat, Reserve bearded goblin, which should gradually shrink, as their gradual disposal. The whole question was, properly, in the amount of the reserve and the conditions - of them and there was a dispute.
Russia from the outset satisfied with the situation of temporary fastening achieved by force of arms the status quo. This has already happened earlier, the way it is now. The situation is much better on the map, than it was before, and if still in negotiations can improve it - excellently!
“sink” under the gaze of the great empress
many have noticed, Putin even place talks with Erdogan picked interesting from a psychological point of view - Hall, where the Turks strictly watched the Empress Catherine the Great, which in Turkey remember very well, as well as its great generals and admirals: Suvorov, Potemkin, Ushakov and others. This is not the first time, when the Turkish delegation in Moscow are subject to similar “trolling”. apparently, invisible presence of one of the greatest rulers not only in Russian history, but also in the European, It had an impact. This hall also stood watch with sculpture, dedicated to the heroism of the Russian soldiers in the penultimate official Russian-Turkish war 1877-1878 gg. Interesting, Erdogan drew attention to them? Or, can, Putin himself has said about them?
The unique MiG-23-98 is able to put in place the Turkish Air Force. Tool, We have forgotten the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
What we are agreed in negotiations? About ceasefire? So CAA needs a break, it is impossible to advance indefinitely, it takes time to replenish the troops, replenishment training, machinery repairs, replenishment of its loss, ammunition supply, and so on. Yes, just need a vacation. Especially that already declared HTSH, they armistice - not a decree, and therefore, they continue ironing aircraft and artillery. That is, a truce may well be thwarted. Agreed that, Russia and Turkey create a security corridor, width DMZ 6 km to the north and south of the M4 highway, and then start on her joint patrols? But on both sides of the road just bandits, and the Turks are going to clean them out - it will be interesting to see. Can not or do not want - will have to act in other ways. At the same time remained to the south of the M4 and the demilitarized zone under the control of a piece of “green”, obviously, departs Damascus - supplying terrorists in these settlements have not received any. And if you will not go away - it is necessary to ask for strength.
About M5 highway and on some there “returns for the line of the Sochi agreements and observation points line” no one remembers. The order on the M5 has watched Russian troops, Equipped where their strong points and patrolling the road. obviously, I have to leave and “rear” roadblocks Turks, the, are surrounded in the CAA are, although it is direct evidence of this is not. But since the old line of the agreement have sunk into oblivion - they have nothing to do there. apparently, they strengthen those posts, which are beyond the M4 and M5, on “until the green” territory. The only thing, We received the Turks, so it is legitimizing their new strongholds, and that, what “sponsored” Bandits get a breather and run hundreds of thousands in Turkey. But it's when they really cease fire, and that such truces was already a lot. Previous was a 12 January, but no one noticed.
As to the slopes of Idlib, and touch it while no one is going. This region is better to let pobudet stone on the neck of Erdogan. Because the loss of routes (through which kinds was contraband, including in the regions controlled by Damascus - is East, there smuggling and before the war engaged in full swing), with the loss of the fertile regions of the region becomes fully subsidized by the Turks. And it is not cheap. Yes and the bread that the Turks themselves have Russia buy, and they will have to share with “bearded”.
It turns out, “Turkish Sultan” simply “leaked”. It is understood in Turkey, there propagandize among youth and Islamist-minded citizens began a spiritual fire, that echoes it, and to the Russian segment of the network's revenue. They, it is seen, waited (together with their voluntary “assistants” from Ukraine) Erdogan almost surrender Putin came to take. But it turned out almost the opposite, even to save face “Turkish partners” whether. Partially. And what will it cost the Turkish leader in the election - the question. In addition to the failed intervention in Syria added to the growing problems in Libya, coupled with the escalating conflict with Egypt, Cyprus, Israel, Italy, France and Greece over the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.
And there are serious doubts, that Erdogan will be able to regain at least part of a very unsteady confidence, which with 2016 g. he managed to win over Putin. In Moscow until the end of the Turks did not believe and do not believe it ever, of course, but somehow, obviously, Turks perceived, relatively adequate partners. Even if the cooperation in the field of military-technical cooperation and other projects and will not be affected, all the same - any action “partners” Ankara will be questioned.
I. Vyatkin, especially for “military review”
