A photo: kremlin.ru
scheduled for 5 March negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan give hope to end, at least, the most acute phase of the conflict in Syria's Idlib, Risks escalate into full-scale armed conflict, members of which are sure to become not only Russia and Turkey. However, even in case of a temporary relaxation of tension, likely, current major challenges remain, the first of which is the necessity of establishing in Syria a permanent and stable peace. whether it is achievable at all and what it depends on the arrival of this long-suffering land of rest? Is it possible to exit from the Syrian “labyrinth”?
Try to seek an answer to the question is so difficult, perhaps, with at least a brief overview of the interests and goals, that haunt today the main force, present and leading active in the region. Abandon the imperial Ankara's plans to build in northern Syria a certain quasi-state totally under its control unit or its incorporation in Turkey. Focusing on the "minimum program" for Erdogan. It is - to inflict maximum damage to the Kurdish armed groups, ousting them as far away from the limits, properly, Turkey and providing opportunities for its own armed forces to operate against the Kurds in the same Afrin.
but, this is only half the story, and at the moment, Alas, lower. Getting involved in the fighting in Syria, Ankara has suffered substantial losses and is now the main thing for her is to get out of fighting with the minimum loss of face. This is especially true personally Erdogan, that any internal political recently, nor on the economic front boasts absolutely nothing. If we add to this and a little more, but not victorious war - it is for the president could end very badly. On the one hand, he understands, that further escalation is fraught with even more victims, on the other - can not stop.
For Russia, the Turks put forward requirements "step aside" and withdraw its troops from Syria are clearly totally unacceptable. That would mean the complete collapse of the entire policy of Moscow, not only in this country, but also in the Middle East as a whole. And not only there, perhaps. Money, lives, diplomatic and military efforts - all will be thrown to the wind. Quarrel with Ankara unprofitable, do not want, but surrender to it - the sign for their inability to defend the interests in a critical situation and their own allies.
Syrians are fighting and dying in Idlib due to the very, perhaps, simple and straightforward reasons. Elimination of Gdańsk "gadyuchnik" and control of strategic highways Damascus are vital to begin the recovery process of the country from the ruins, in which it has plunged many years of war. To achieve internal stability, without which it is waiting for the fate of Libya. And that's not the worst case,. The Syrians did not retreat already under any circumstances.
Iran in the interests of Syria – at least it is a territorial buffer between the Islamic Republic and Israel, which the (buffer) Tehran does not want to see pro-American and pro-Israel.
With Europe all quite simple: its leaders to hiccups frightened by the prospect of new waves of refugees, especially, Erdogan has very kindly held a "substantive demonstration" of, What strength and power, they can be. Europeans, as usual, ready to pay off, act as peacemakers, but do not host the new hundreds of thousands of destitute war exiles from the Middle East. it would be very tempting to continue to continue to fan the flames of war in Syria for the United States, a, better, still get rid of the hated Assad and as tightly as possible to annoy Russian. Well, and Turkana zaodno - for treachery and inconsistency. but, in the light of the upcoming elections, Washington is unlikely to be on a major intervene in the conflict. rather, wash its hands and wait for the results.
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For all these reasons, the near future not only of Idlib, but the whole of Syria, to the greatest extent depends on, Will find a sensible compromise Russian and Turkish leaders. Intermediate output would be a decision to transfer the situation to a level, in which each of the parties which will receive its no big battles and frontal attacks, without advertising as a result of the achievements made in the concession agreements, and received in exchange for these "bonuses".
Turkey would then have to decide, that for her more important - solving problems with the Kurds and support banditstvuyuschey antiasadovskoy "opposition". Damascus, obviously, there is still some time to put up with the last pockets of resistance of his most implacable enemies, not trying to completely eliminate them. For the opportunity to gain control of the M-4 and M-5 to start to rebuild the economy and infrastructure, there can agree to this. Russia, however, it is important to withstand the pressure of Erdogan, do not sacrifice their interests and, without reducing its own presence and importance in the region, once again play the role of the most balanced and wise player in the Middle East.
Alexander Haraluzhny
