In connection with the statements of the Turkish President about, that the beginning of military operations in Idlib is only a matter of time, pay attention to the map of the location of the Turkish military in the SAR.
We are talking about the places of concentration of the military personnel of the Turkish armed forces, including at the so-called "observation posts". It is important to note, that the number of these posts has grown exponentially over the past few weeks, having stepped over the limit long ago, defined in the format of the Astana and Sochi agreements.
Turkish security forces are located in several directions, including the M-4 road, connecting Aleppo to the Mediterranean coast.
Places of concentration of Turkish troops and equipment: Arima in the south of the Idlib de-escalation zone, Jizr el-Shugur, Deir-Symbul, Sarmin, Idlib, Taftanaz, Atariʙ, Kafr-Karmin. It's less than half of those areas, where Turkish troops were stationed in the territories, controlled by militants. But there are also a considerable number of locations of Turkish soldiers and officers in the rear of the Syrian government army.. A few examples: Serakib, Maaret-an-Nuuman, Morek, El Ace, Rashidin, Seikh-Akil and others. The Turkish contingent in Idlib and Aleppo is estimated at thousands of troops.
In such a situation, it is worth assessing the danger of a Turkish strike in the rear of the SAA.. It is important that, that formations remain in the rear, that, a-priory, less efficient, than the leading edge. If ahead is acting, eg, 25-I am a special forces division (former «Tiger Force»), then parts remain in the rear, who are primarily concerned with strengthening positions, rehabilitation of infrastructure. Opponents of the CAA may well take advantage of this., arranging, eg, provocation with a simultaneous attempt to force the advance detachments of the SAA to withdraw to "extinguish the fire in the rear".
In this regard, there is a danger of falling into the Turkish encirclement of the forces of the aforementioned 25th SAA Special Forces Division.. If Erdogan decides to go all-in, then it may well give the order to slam the lid “boiler” in the Foix-Idlib-Seraqib triangle. It was in this triangle that the Turkish special forces were previously deployed.. But did the Turkish General Staff calculate the possible losses among the servicemen of the Turkish army?, – the question is still open.