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Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

Troops, faithful Bashar Assad, continue to attack on Idlib. If they do take the center of the province, the situation and the balance of power in the area of ​​Syria will change radically. What would it mean for Turkey, which is making every effort, to prevent the capture of Idlib?

Night 8 February Syrian Arab army continued its offensive in the southern district of the governorate of Aleppo. Faithful Bashar Assad military managed to capture several important points, including those located on the Aleppo-Damascus highway. Clearing the most important highway of the country from insurgents, CAA is close to the, to reopen the highway, connecting the southern and northern parts of Syria.

A day earlier, the Syrian Arab army was busy in Idlib city Sarakib. Remains of defending the city militant groups "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (prohibited in the Russian Federation) They were forced to withdraw from the strategically important area. The successes of the Syrian government troops are forced to reflect on the further development of events in Idlib. It is not excluded, that the CAA still be able to oust the militants and to take the area and the city under their control.

Events in Idlib extremely concerned in Turkey. 7 February to the border with Syria were deployed tanks and artillery of the Turkish land forces, and he went Idlib column special-purpose forces in Turkey. Why else would need Turkish special forces in Idlib, except not to oppose the Syrian Arab Army?

Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

For Turkey, the loss of control of Idlib may be considered as a strategic loss. Bashar Assad is approaching the, to regain control of the country's territory, including on its northern section, that I do not like the Turkish leadership. But what other prospects are Turkey, Considering, that the Syrian Arab Army continues to support the Russian?

In Turkey, Recep Erdogan's position is more and more questions. So, it criticized the leader of the largest opposition force – Kemalist Republican People's Party of Turkey, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

The government should abandon the policy, aimed at regime change in Syria, as well as the cooperation with groups, which threaten its territorial integrity,
– Archive Kılıçdaroğlu.

Of course, Recep Erdogan, known for its authoritarianism and ambition, go to will not be over the opposition. Now he justifies the need for the Turkish presence in northern Syria humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib. From Idlib to the Turkish borders, According to Erdogan, We came up to a million Syrian refugees.

But the force to change its position on Idlib it can and successful offensive Syrian government troops, and invariable course of Russia to protect the territorial integrity of Syria. Finally, a full-scale war in Syria, Turkey is not ready, knowing, that will have to face with Russia, at least – on the economic front. it, by the way, Erdogan himself admitted, Noting the importance of projects such as "Turkish Stream" and the construction of nuclear power plant in Akkuyu.

Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

But also to leave Syria "Sultan Erdogan", as it is called the Western press, It is not going. The presence of Turkish troops - just the tip of the iceberg of Turkish policy in Syria. So, Erdogan sought to change the ethnic picture in the Turkish occupied areas of the country - to push Kurds and Arabs, compact form enclaves stay Turkomans - Syrian Turkmens, close to the Turkish language and culture. In areas, under the control of the Turkish military, in circulation - Turkish Lira, and training is administered in schools by the Turkish Standards.

Now one of the possible scenarios for further developments called the deal on Idlib between Erdogan and Putin. Allegedly, the Turkish army will stop supporting militants, and in return Russia will make certain concessions in other areas, for example - in Libya.

Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

Erdogan's ambitions for a blow: Syrian army is preparing to take up the entire Idlib

Why C-300 does not protect Syria from the Israeli aviation: reflection and version

However, such a prospect looks very hazy, Considering, that Erdogan and his entourage situation in Syria - a few more, than just politics and economics. It is a matter of prestige, question of the revival of Turkey as powers, ability to promote and protect their interests and claims to be a special place for the post-Ottoman space.

Therefore, the capture of the Syrian Arab Army Idlib be for Erdogan's very unpleasant event – blow. succeed, that all efforts to maintain control of the area, It was in vain, as well as the Turkish military casualties were in vain. AND, of course, taking Idlib hit neoosmanistskim ambitions of the Turkish President.

Ilya Polonsky

A source

                          
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