The era of oil $100 a barrel held in the global assessment of markets, but geopolitical events can refute these predictions. About it FBA “economy today” Deputy Director of the Energy direction of the Institute of Energy and Finance Alex Belogoryev.
Global demand for oil will be gradually reduced, giving way to the gas, and other energy sources. And against the backdrop of US production growth is unlikely to make a repeat cycles, when oil prices reached $100 per barrel and even exceed this level. Such an opinion on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressed by the head of BP, Robert Dudley. According to him, high volatility in oil prices is unlikely, as companies from the United States “can easily fill” all add up to a world shortage.
“Dudley voiced the most common expert opinion of the oil industry - the fundamental causes of the return barrel to quotes on the level 2014 of the year, no, – the specialist. - However, no one does not exclude the global geopolitical upheaval, which may increase the price of oil - confrontation, war, sanctions, unforeseen factors. But miners shale raw materials United States - not only, who restrain prices in the oil market.
Surprisingly, same regulator and serves Alliance OPEC +, which includes Russia. Its members are not interested in a sharp rise in prices, since such a scenario creates “swing”, which subsequently provided and the sharp decrease in quotations. A major OPEC countries +, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, It focused primarily on the steady market. And US mining companies even more interested in high prices, than an alliance to confront them. The whole market situation is teetering”.
Sun and wind
According to Dudley, in the coming 20 years, according to UN forecasts, increase by 2 billion people, which is equivalent to the appearance of yet another China and the US on the planet. It means, that the world will need more billions of kilowatt-hours. This will lead to a revision of the role of renewable energy sources (renewable), who now provide only 3-4% all needs. these technologies, According to Dudley, They will also develop rapidly against the background of increasing world attention to the environmental.
Bans on oil projects, as many said in Davos, It will not solve the problem of reducing harmful emissions, the head of BP. The population of the Earth calls change the face of the industry in the coming 10 years and will transform today's oil industry in multi-energy companies, which will be a lot to invest in technologies and projects, which today are not cost-effective, as oil and gas projects, but to minimize the impact on the environment, sure Dudley.
“Rather strange to link renewable energy development with the growth of world population, because generally show growth underdeveloped countries - mainly African. And there to meet the energy challenges using not the energy of the sun and wind, and coal, wood and household waste. There's more population growth will lead to higher consumption of oil and oil products, but not high-tech solar panels and wind turbines. Especially, it will not cause the development of hydropower.
In general, the world is waiting for the rapid development of renewable energy technologies - this is largely due to the fact, that continues the production of components made less expensive, it cheapens the cost of solar and wind energy. Today in some regions such installations are already showing competitive with coal-fired generation, and in conditions of price reduction - and with gas. But all this is distant prospects”, – He emphasizes the expert.
Russian strategy
According to the Bank of Russia, total exports of crude oil from Russia 2019 year decreased by 5,9% and made 121,6 billion. In value terms, exports grew a little slower due to lower oil prices – from $0,84 billion to $3,41 billion. The average price of Russian Urals in 2019 year decreased by 8,8%, to $63,8 per barrel. And Turkey and the United States accounted for about 5% Russian oil exports.
According to the National Energy Security Foundation expert Alexander Perov, Russia's position on the oil market is quite strong and promising. The price of a barrel, Despite the market surplus oil, kept at 60 USD pretty confident. At the same time, Russia can count on long-term demand in Asia and Africa - on these regions based supplies of hydrocarbon raw materials strategy.
“In Russia, the cost of oil and gas production is very low and will remain such,, because sense to develop RES is simply no. domestic gas, coal and to a lesser extent oil will remain competitive on the world market for a long time, leaving no chance for renewable energy. And the climatic features of the Russian Federation seriously affect the structure of demand - for example, there are regions, where the sun is very low.
On the other hand, Russian energy companies could develop domestic renewable energy technologies, to deliver them to the external market - there, where they are needed. The problem is only one: in the work of domestic companies is difficult to rely on domestic demand. The share of renewable energy in Russia will remain at the level of 5% for a long time. And it raises the question of investment in the obtaining of proprietary technologies “pure” energy”, – Alex concludes Belogoryev.
Max Boot
