Threaten allies duties for the accusations against Iran in the spirit of Trump - to Iran, he can press only economically. About it FBA “economy today” said military expert Ivan Konovalov.
President Donald Trump threatened France, Britain and Germany, the introduction of fees in the amount of 25% on European cars, if they do not accuse Iran of violating the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (SVPD) on its nuclear program. This was reported by the newspaper The Washington Post. According to her, warning European leaders had done a week before, as European countries launched a dispute settlement mechanism in the framework of the nuclear deal. In the EU, considered actions of the US blackmail.
“Most likely, this is a true story - it fits perfectly into the style of behavior Trump and his attitude to the allies, – says analyst. - And the UK is unlikely to have an active blackmail - London habitually carries out any orders of Washington for many years. Outrage similar ultimatum was to be in Berlin and Paris - the last time France and Germany are extremely sensitive to US actions and resist pressure.
However, now we see, that States themselves have gone back on their word after the murder Qasem Soleimani went back down and eased the pressure on Iran. Allies in the consolidated indictment Tehran steel Trump are not necessary - he knew, that its pressure is brought to Europe before the split, while nothing has been winning in the Middle East. A surge showed anti-American sentiment, that the United States could lose a lot - up to the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Syria”.
non-military scenario
US bet on the economic pressure Iran after Washington's unilateral exit from nuclear deal. Trump has promised to completely block all oil trade of Middle Eastern countries - so it is imposed penalties, but a number of Asian countries, including China, ignore these restrictions and purchase Iranian materials. At the same time Trump has promised to fully restore all sanctions against Iran, which in 2015 were canceled due to the conclusion of SVPD.
It means, Iran will again be in the brutal trade isolation - perhaps, even in the country once again block the SWIFT interbank transfer system, that hinder trade and international payments. In Europe, we have repeatedly stated, you need to save nuclear deal, which, in their opinion, vital to reducing tensions and restrictions Iran's nuclear program. But 13 January Germany, Britain and France declared, complained that the head of European diplomacy on Iran's actions, violates SVPD.
“The United States in the late 1970s as a result of the overthrow of the pro-American Shah completely lost control over Iran and has since made all, to return it. Tehran is even named one of the US threats, on a par with Russia and China. It would seem, Washington simply could repeat the Iraqi scenario in Iran with military intervention and achieve its, but not so simple. Iraq at the beginning “null” It was very weak, and the country's generals are quietly sold to the Americans, States that provided an easy victory.
Iran - another opponent “weight category”, his company is consolidated, army strong, and its management is highly motivated and patriotic. That is why “orange” technology revolutions there just did not work. Iran at the same time have a powerful militia and massive mobilization resources. And when you try to military intervention, the US Army plucked a serious answer and incur unacceptable losses. The sole lever of pressure on Iran from the US economy remains the only”, – He emphasizes Ivan Konovalov.
US provocations
Donald Trump during his election campaign announced, US “many lost” at the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran, promising to rectify this situation. AT 2018 , he announced, Tehran violates SVPD conditions, so the US withdrawal from SVPD and restore all sanctions. Other participants in the plan, – Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany, They disagreed with the actions of the USA. But Washington continues to put pressure on European allies, forcing them to change their point of view.
As the US threatens sanctions over the, who will do business with Iran, for economic exchanges with that country created an independent mechanism of payments. Initiated its development in the European Union, but before the actual launch of the matter has not yet reached. Tehran calls on EU partners to speed up work on it. Washington regularly threatens Iran, a 3 January of this year, a US military drone struck a rocket attack on Baghdad's airport, killing influential Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani.
“The US can not afford an open war with Iran - is too great a risk of losing not only the soldiers, but the remnants of influence in the Middle East. After Tehran as part of military operations first of all wipe out US military bases in Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. Because Washington is forced to use only the methods of economic terror.
However, in terms of economic and commercial blockade of Iran has been living for decades. He routinely overcomes arising out of this difficulty. A difficult situation in the country - States are waiting for a social explosion in Iran, that will allow them to exploit the situation for the change of power in Washington-controlled. But unlike, that these plans will succeed. At least, in the coming years”, – concludes Ivan Konovalov.
Max Boot
