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RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

Russia's connection to the Azerbaijani TANAP project will force European countries to increase demand for Russian gas, I told FBA “economy today” President of the Foundation for Historical Research “ground” Alex Anpilogov.

RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

TANAP project

Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) originally planned for the transportation of gas from the offshore gas condensate field in Azerbaijan Shah Deniz. The second stage of the development of this gas pipeline is currently underway., which will provide it with large volumes of gas. TANAP was launched 30 November 2019 years for the supply of Azerbaijani gas.

Earlier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev launched the first stage of the Southern Gas Corridor project, through which Caspian gas is supplied to Europe. According to him annually 6 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas will be supplied to Turkey, and then 2020 years yet 10 billion cubic meters per year - to Europe.

“Azerbaijan is connected to the southern corridor, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania and Italy. Azerbaijan also consumes gas, which reduces the export capacity of the gas corridor. Strategically, the new pipeline will increase the importance of Azerbaijan not only as an exporter of natural gas, but also as a transporter and transiter of gas through the territory of Turkey to the west", - I explained the expert.

RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

It is assumed, As for 2026 the capacity of the corridor can be expanded up to 31 billion cubic meters of gas through the construction of additional gas compressor stations.

“Europe is now considering any alternatives to withdraw from Russian gas. And TANAP is now one of those ways. Despite European sentiment, Russia did not consider this gas pipeline as a serious competitor”, - said the expert.

Power

The project consists of three parts: South Caucasus gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, going through the territory of Azerbaijan and Georgia to the border with Turkey, Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, stretching across Turkey, and the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline, passing through Greece, Albania and Italy.

Political and economic support for the project, the expert, provided by many European countries, as well as USA and UK.

Goals of Azerbaijan and Europe

Azerbaijan intends to increase natural gas production in Shah Deniz, and to involve other players in the Southern Gas Corridor project, specifically Iran and Turkmenistan.

"European Union, looking for alternatives to Russian gas, launched another project, handled by Cyprus, Greece, Israel. East Med is already on the way to practical implementation. Gas deliveries from Israel to Europe may begin in 2024-2025 years. It will connect the Israeli gas field "Leviathan" and "Aphrodite" of Cyprus", - said Alexey Anpilogov.

RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

However, the construction of this branch, the expert focuses, causes opposition to Turkey, which, because of this, is beginning to be more loyal to the launch of Russian gas through new routes.

“If earlier Ankara considered the Turkish Stream as a counterbalance to the TANAP gas pipeline, today the state has already expressed support for East Med. Therefore, Turkey is also interested in launching the Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TAP)», - said the expert.

Significance for Russia

Russian gas can indeed at a certain stage be connected to the Trans-Anatolian pipeline project (TANAP). This project will first become a competitor for Gazprom as in Europe, as well as in Turkey, despite, that the initial volumes of Azerbaijani gas supplies are not so large, expert notes.

“Turkey is a transit country, whose market is closed by Blue Stream and Turkish Stream. It is the second largest consumer of Russian gas after Germany.. The problem now is, that all connecting gas pipelines will be built long enough, and gas will have to be delivered through the territories of European countries. Since the southern route was focused on southern countries, then it is logical to indicate the following paths ", - said Anpilogov.

RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

There are two important directions, the expert believes - from Turkey through Greece to Italy or Bulgaria with subsequent transportation to Serbia, Hungary and Austria.

“If Gazprom connects to TANAP, then Russian gas will enter European territory through the Nabucco branch and the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP). These two gas pipelines are important for resolving issues, related to gas transit through Ukraine”, - clarified Anpilogov.

TANAP will touch Ukraine

Currently, said the expert, northern transit routes for Russian gas are being closed by Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2, and the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.

Branches of Turkish Stream, in its turn, they will put the EU before the fact - they will have to accept Russian gas instead of Azerbaijani gas, which is not enough to fill the Trans-Anatolian pipeline. Europe will need a lot of natural gas in the coming decades, there is enough space in the gas market for everyone. But subject to Russia joining TANAP, Nabucco and TAP. It's a complex geopolitical scheme, in which the Russian Federation is interested in order to ensure the verification of actual transit routes”, – added by Anpilogov.

A few years later, when the gas contract with Kyiv expires, expert predicts, the issue of resource transit through Ukrainian territories will again become relevant.

RF connection to the TANAP will force Europe to buy more Russian gas

“Then TANAP and the presence of Russian gas in it will be a trump card, which will allow choosing a different direction in the dialogue with Kyiv. Russia will have a different geopolitical environment and will receive the support of Turkey, Bulgaria and Greece, who will act as transit powers. In this case, the European Commission will not be able to officially interfere with transit.”, - predicts Anpilogov.

unlikely, says expert, that due to connection to TANAP, Gazprom will refuse a five-year contract with Ukraine.

“Russia will pump gas volumes set for Kyiv until the end of the agreement. Further, Moscow will act in the interests of increasing the volume of gas transit through other gas pipelines.”, - I suggested the expert.

New directions of Russian transit

Expansion of the gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Europe may involve not only competition with Gazprom, but also partnership.

“We must not forget about the development of the second stage of Shah Deniz and the appearance of gas in the new branch. In this case, Russia from Azerbaijan will be able to direct the flow further to the East. Moscow will consider directions to China or India. Russia has long been looking towards the East, but is not going to lose Europe at the same time", - summed up the expert.

Alexander Melnik

A source

                          
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