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An honest look at the prospects of Russian gas exports

An honest look at the prospects of Russian gas exports

The New Year has come, holidays are coming to an end. It is already possible to soberly assess, which could reach Russia for the past five years in the economy postmaydannuyu, and the challenges, with which our country will face in 2020. As the "Gazprom" and hydrocarbons - is "our everything", let's talk about the most honest performance of the "national heritage".

The main direction of the state corporation - is the export of natural gas through pipelines. The main export market for "Gazprom" has traditionally been Europe, and Ukraine - a major broker-transit. after the events 2014 of the year, The Kremlin has tried to diversify its supplies from China, and "avoid" Square, and live, and in the figurative sense of the word. What came out of it?

"Power of Siberia"

This pipeline can be considered a symbol of "turning to the East". Negotiations on the construction and environment of "blue fuel" were for a long time, but after the annexation of Crimea and the introduction of the first Western sanctions, Kremlin needed apparent geopolitical victory, to demonstrate the inability of the international isolation of Russia. After a personal visit to Beijing by President Vladimir Putin, an agreement on the "Power of Siberia" has been signed yet.

During construction, the project has risen in price considerably, but in the end 2019 , the gas has already begun to arrive in China. as per the contract, Russia is now required for 30 years to deliver 'blue fuel' to China in the amount of 38 billion cubic meters per year. This "breakthrough to the East" is estimated differently. skeptics believe, that the pipeline does not pay off for a long time, and the undoubted benefits it has brought only to contractors. Pessimism adds the fact, Beijing suddenly started to market liberalization of domestic gas prices, that might work against the "Power of Siberia".

Optimists also point to the fact, The pipeline can be considered "anchor project", which will allow "Gazprom" to cling to the largest manufacturing economy in the world, China. Who in the end is right, time will tell.

"Turkish Stream"

This pipeline is a spur of President Putin. After, Bulgaria zavolokitila construction of "South Stream", "Gazprom" began to lay the pipe in the direction of Turkey. Alternative pipeline halved by volume of gas pumped from the original "Bulgaria" project. Origin Russian gas began to flow into Turkey.

Unfortunately, completely without not completely reliable Sophia could not do. Instead, Greece "Gazprom" re-bet on Bulgaria, and again made a mistake. Construction of the pipeline link between Turkey and Serbia through Bulgarian territory is constantly hampered, what Sofia directly foaming President Putin. Now known as the launch date of the transit to the 31 May, but who knows, what will happen, if the United States to impose sanctions against the already "Turkish stream"?

Ankara also gradually reduce the consumption of Russian gas, intending to diversify the sources of its receipt. Wherein, in addition to Syria, Turks can now face the Russians are already in Libya, that hardly will promote fruitful cooperation between our countries.

"Northern Stream 2"

This is our main pain. On the bypass line around Ukraine has made a big bet. In theory, “Northern Stream 2” plus "Turkish Stream" could cover a significant part of the export load through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. but the United States, claim to its share of the European gas market, a few strokes of the project was put on the blades.

first, Denmark, under obvious pressure from Washington, years of red tape, a permit for its construction. Then, the European bureaucrats adopted amendments to the Third Energy Package, extending their effects on marine pipelines. Because of what "Northern Stream 2", calculated on 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, Suddenly half opustel. Chancellor Merkel was able to beat in order to avoid pipeline, but the president of Trump struck Ku-de-Gras, by introducing direct sanctions against the Russian-German project.

Remaining 160 kilometers of pipes – two weeks of work – Now there is simply nobody to finish building. Swiss construction contractor threw, there is no alternative, only pipe-lay ship from "Gazprom" is being repaired in the Far East. If before the launch of "Nord Stream-2" in the operation was expected to fly 2020 of the year, now it is in the best case – end 2020 of the year, on condition, that the United States and Denmark did not come up with something else. And then the pipeline will turn into a long-term construction. By that time, a window of opportunity for the exception to the actions of the Third Energy Package, Angela Merkel beaten, expires. For most of Mrs. Chancellor, Make a bet on the "green revolution", it would be a serious political blow.

Against this gloomy background of the signing of a five-year transit agreement with Ukraine difficult to call something else, rather than the recognition of "Gazprom" lesions in an attempt to give up Kiev Service. May be, while in the country there is money in the NWF and the relative stability, It is to do something else, in addition to the hydrocarbon exports, which is obtained is somehow not very?

Author: Sergey Marzhetsky

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