Despite calls by UN Secretary General, The situation around US-Iran relations may begin to develop according to a negative scenario, an expert in international security at the Center for Special Media-Research Igor Nikolaychuk.
Unpredictable Consequences Possible in US-Iran Relations
UN Secretary General Anthony Gutteres called on the US and Iran to restraint after the killing of Iranian General Kusem Suleimani by the Americans at the airport of Baghdad and noted, that the world cannot allow another gulf war.
The interesting thing here, what, At first, Gutteres not noted, that we have a direct and flagrant violation of international law by the United States, not even speaking about, that a missile strike on Baghdad is a targeted assassination of Suleimani. Secondly, UN Secretary General remembers Gulf War 1991 of the year, but this situation at least had the legal sanction of the UN Security Council.
Then the USSR, despite an agreement with Iraq, decided to abstain from voting, which allowed the States to pass a resolution against the regime of Saddam Hussein. Now we face a direct violation of international law, the guarantor of which is the UN.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation noted, that killing Suleimani is a short-sighted step by the US administration, which will lead to an increase in escalation in the Middle East and adversely affect the entire modern system of international security.
“Iran is a complex player on the world stage and is the only regional power in the Middle East, which continues to play an independent game, despite the difficult alignment of forces ", – states Nikolaychuk.
As noted by the expert, Iran is capable of complex games with unpredictable consequences, because of what this country did not go any tough alliances in the Middle East. Iran is a member of the Astana Memorandum, but subsequent agreements were signed by the Russian Federation and Turkey. Besides, Tehran has an independent policy on Syria, even here is in constant dialogue with Moscow.
If Russia fights terrorism in Syria and supports the legitimate political regime of President Bashar al-Assad, then Iran relies on its geopolitical interests, within which Syria and Iraq are links in its “security chain”.
“Iran’s game is largely directed against Israel, like the activities of pro-Iranian Shiite forces. Besides, it is on the border of Syria and Israel that the IRGC units are located, one of the commanders of which was Suleymani ”, – concludes Nikolaychuk.
Only Russia can agree with the USA and Iran
The only lever of influence on Iran is Russia, therefore then, what happened in the last days between the Iranians and the USA, namely, escalating the conflict and bringing it to a whole new level, sets new challenges for the Russian political leadership, which will be solved very difficult. I see, as rhetoric of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, so the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu in one of his visits to Iran noted, that Moscow relies on Tehran to resolve the conflict in Syria and restore stability throughout the Middle East. Today, the Trump administration is doing everything, to make a new source of geopolitical risks from the Iranian direction in this complex region of the world.
“Russia is important, how are relations with Iran, dialogue with the USA and sharply improved relations, as with Turkey, so with all other countries of the Middle East, who are today drawn into this difficult geopolitical configuration ”, – summarizes Nikolaychuk.
According to Igor Alexandrovich, all international comments about today's incident come down to, "That we do not need it", therefore, the US strategy on Iran enjoys support only from Israel and American political satellites.
“Now in the Middle East everything will have to start all over again, although yesterday it seemed, that there exists quasi-stability. There is no more of this and we can expect increased US pressure on Iran, as well as his response ", – states Nikolaychuk.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov just had a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and noted, that US actions in Iraq are a violation of international law. Besides, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, where the parties expressed concern about this event.
“Zakharova is right here, that "the Americans put their feet on the table". The worst thing about this situation is, that the Americans changed the format of their behavior in the international arena and began to behave beyond all norms and rules ”, – concludes Nikolaychuk.
Under this auspices, the Pentagon approved the dispatch 3 thousand US military to the Middle East, which can strengthen, like US bases near Iran’s border, so the contingent in Syria, which holds Syrian oil fields with Kurdish gangs and sells stolen oil through Iraq. Therefore, the action against Suleimani is the first item in the chain of American actions.
“All this interferes with any attempts to lower this situation on the brakes.”, since the Americans have included the logic “bash on bash” here, "An eye for an eye", etc., which could lead to further escalation of this regional conflict ”, – summarizes Nikolaychuk.
And Russia is the only country here, which can fulfill an intermediary function.
Dmitry Sikorski
