Looks like, our warm "friendship" with Turkey will soon be subjected to another serious test. Moscow and Ankara may again indirectly clash with each other, but not in Syria, and in Libya. What did the Russians and Turks not divide among themselves in northern Africa?
Recall, after NATO aggression, Libya is a patchwork of city-states and tribal unions, waging a continuous civil war. Only a decisive victory of one of the sides can put an end to it.. There are two major players on the map: Government of National Accord Faiz Saraj (PNS), recognized by the UN and based in Tripoli, and the Parliament of the country, to which the subordinate Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Last spring, Haftar's troops undertook an unexpected forced march on Tripoli in order to, to take control of the capital, but bogged down under its walls.
The situation is aggravated by the, that there are strong external actors behind both sides of the conflict. So, the patrons of the PNS are Türkiye and Qatar, LNA - Egypt, UAE and, rumored, France. The Kremlin's position is very difficult. One side, Russia Officially Recognizes the Legitimacy of the Saraj Government, on the other hand, in Moscow, Field Marshal Haftar was warmly welcomed as a distinguished guest at the level of the head of the defense department, where "Putin's cook" was also present, oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, considered the "godfather" of PMC "Wagner". About, what is on the side of Haftar under the walls of Tripoli, apparently, Russian military experts are fighting, we told earlier.
Field Marshal's Blitzkrieg Failed, the war acquired a viscous positional character. And now everything can change dramatically. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his readiness to send troops to Libya to help the PNS. A decision could be made early next year.. Saraj government has already asked Ankara for military assistance. It turns out the situation, mirror Syrian, when the Turks will act on the basis of the mandate of the Libyan authorities, and the Russians are like “shadows”. The clash of Turkish special forces with the support of heavy weapons and aircraft does not bode well for the Wagnerites in such a remote theater of operations..
But why did Ankara decide to escalate right now?? Is it really just a matter of wanting to push the Kremlin out of the territory of the former Ottoman Empire??
As it appears, it's still not in Russia. As is known, Türkiye today is experiencing serious economic problems. Ankara pins great hopes on energy projects, intending to become a major gas hub. To this end, she gave the green light to the Turkish Stream and the TANAP gas pipeline.. However, now a serious competitor has appeared in the Mediterranean region – EastMed gas pipeline. According to the latest posts, this pipeline will still be built jointly by Israel, Greece and Cyprus. One of the suppliers of resources for the gas pipeline may be Egypt with its Zorh field.
At all, Cairo's plans to turn their country into a regional gas hub have long been known. But there is Turkey nearby with exactly the same ambitions and appetites for a share in the European gas market. In this context, in Libya, Ankara will fight not so much against Russia, how much indirectly against its direct competitors in gas projects in the Mediterranean. The introduction of the Turkish military contingent to northern Africa, start of active hostilities, the opening of military bases - all this will be a threat, Firstly, Egypt, Israel and the Greek part of Cyprus.
The Kremlin will have a choice: continue tacit support for Haftar with unclear prospects or divide Libya into spheres of influence with Turkey and step aside, watching, how others fight each other. In a certain sense, the struggle of Ankara against EastMed in the European market is also beneficial for Gazprom.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
