The reasons for the Russian military operation in Syria is still very interested in American military analysts. For the first time since the war in Afghanistan, Russia has taken such a massive part in the fighting outside the former Soviet Union. And this must be your explanation.
A unique set of circumstances
2 October 2019 the American Research Center RAND Corporation, dealing among other things, the study of the political situation in other countries, He published an impressive report "Reflecting on the Russian intervention in Syria". Its authors - analysts Sam Charap, Elina Treyger and Edward Geist.
Russia decided to intervene in the civil war in Syria 2015 year. Immediately, Moscow was marked and clear position - the current support of the legitimate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose position at that time was under threat due to the activation of the anti-government actions of the opposition and terrorist groups (largely the same).
Naturally, the fact of Russia's participation in the war far beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union caused a lot of questions and concerns in the West, primarily in the US. After all, Syria - it is not Transnistria and Abkhazia, Donbass or not Tajikistan. But Moscow decided to fight back in the country and participates in it for four years. Respectively, He suggests a number of American experts, Russia can resort to such behaviors and other military-political conflicts in Eurasia and even in Africa.
However, the RAND Corporation experts in their analytical report say, that the deployment of troops to Syria 2015 It was made possible through a unique combination of circumstances. Recall, what the situation was developing in the world in 2015 year. Just Crimea and Sevastopol reunited with the Russian Federation, raging armed conflict in the Donbas, Russia against economic sanctions were imposed. In the Middle East shortly before it was a series of Arab revolutions, as a result of which fell relatively friendly Moscow Muammar Gaddafi regime in Libya, the outbreak of civil war in Yemen and Syria.
The main political factor, played a major role in the decision to send troops, It was the belief in the near collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, if you do not intervene. In Moscow we were convinced, that without Russian interference Assad will inevitably suffer the fate of Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.
But, Unlike them, Assad was truly and still is a true ally Russia. In Syria, the latter acted at that time a Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria had a very good trade and military-technical relations with Russia. Lose an ally for Moscow meant only one thing - the Middle East will be lost.
Since the Russian government has come to the conclusion that the failure to settle the Syrian conflict by diplomatic means, it was inclined to the idea of a military operation in Syria. In other words, it was decided to save Bashar Assad and Russia-friendly regime. Indeed, in the case of the overthrow of the Assad Russia's position in the Middle East would finally weakened.
Secondly, in Russia we have seen significant geopolitical risks in the Syrian conflict. One can not deny the terrorist threat, which after the outbreak of fighting in Syria has multiplied. On the side of terrorist groups fought fighters with a large number of North Caucasus, from Central Asia, therefore, there was no doubt, that if they are not eliminated in the Syrian territory, they enter Russia, and will be a threat to national security here and now.
Politically advantageous and convenient from a military point of view,
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To conduct a military operation in Syria, Russia has the necessary conditions. So, Syria operated a Russian naval base (item logistics), It has been given permission to use an air base. Concentrated in the south of Russia's armed forces, in principle, we have the resources and opportunities to participate in the fighting in Syria.
The important role played by the fact, that the brunt of the fighting on the ground took the allies - Syrian government forces and controlled by Iran to Shiite formation. They were the "infantry" of the Syrian civil war, ridding Russia of the need to send to Syria considerable military contingent of ground troops. I.e, Russia retained the support of aviation, missile strikes on militant bases, special operations and activities of the military police.
US analysts believe, that in any other country, which was in a similar situation, for example - in Afghanistan or Yemen, as well as in Libya, conditions did not exist, that would facilitate the deployment of Russian troops. Therefore, Moscow and did not intervene in Libya or Yemen conflict. With regard to the conflict in Afghanistan, which is full of serious risks for Russia, including the same terrorist threat and destabilization of the situation in the Central Asian republics of the former USSR, Moscow prefers that all the same it does not interfere.
Nevertheless, American experts believe, that the absence of Russian military presence in other belligerent countries of the East due to the fact, what, At first, a situation in which not reached the degree of incandescence, who was in Syria, and secondly, political and military circumstances did not work properly.
Americans, however, do not exclude, that if in the same situation exacerbated Afghanistan so, that would directly threaten Russian interests in the region and the national security of the Russian state, in Moscow there will be other ways to influence it, but to launch a military operation on the Syrian scenario.
With regard to the intervention in conflicts in Libya or Yemen, to what, and if there will be a, then go for a more gentle scenario, than in Syria. In Libya, there is still oil and geopolitical interests of Russia, as it is the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, "Watcher" to the south of Europe, but Yemen is of less interest.
Therefore, Russia and distancing itself from the Yemeni conflict, in contrast to the same Iran, which the, It is a religious Shiite state, forced to support fellow - Yemeni Shia - against their opponents, supported, in its turn, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Nevertheless, American experts summarize its report by two major and quite unambiguous conclusions. At first, The United States should understand, Now that Russia will not refrain from defending their national interests outside the former Soviet Union. AND, as shown by the example of the Syrian war, Moscow is ready, if necessary, and to armed intervention, the participation of its troops in the fighting in the territories of other states.
Secondly, US army must be prepared to, that Russian troops will be present in all the "hot spots" in the Middle East, North Africa and other regions of the world. Let their number is not large, but the Russian military presence will be its unique labeling, especially in those countries, which Moscow has political or economic plans.
The consequences of the Syrian operations
We see, what serious consequences for Russia resulted in part in the fighting in Syria. Four years of Russian military operations have completely turned the political landscape in the Middle East. Russia, It does not possess at the time and a little bit of the impact, that is, she is now, quickly broke in Middle East policy, and forced the world to be reckoned with, It has become an important arbiter, which today are listening most different directions: and Syria, and the Kurds, and moderate opposition, and Iran, and Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and even Israel.
Against this background, the fade old "aces" of world politics, especially the European Union, whose participation in the settlement of the Syrian conflict has been reduced to a minimum. But the United States, withdrawing its troops from Syria and so nothing having achieved in this country, also demonstrated its impotence, inability not only to reconcile the conflicting parties, but even to defend the interests of its own allies - Syrian Kurds, which the US military for years preparing and arming.
If we compare the position of Russia in the Middle East before and after the Syrian operations, we see, how to strengthen the position of our country, how serious player in the field of Middle Eastern politics, she became. And the question now is not only the political and military implications, such as the emergence of new military bases in the strategically important region of Russia, but also about the direct economic benefits.
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After all, the same S-400, Turkey sold - it's money. Contracts with Saudi Arabia - it's money. Russia received the exceptional conditions for the work to restore the destroyed infrastructure during the Syrian war, and it is - a huge field for Russian investors, construction, transport companies.
Not casually concerned criticism of Donald Trump in the US Democratic Party ranks shout, that mistakes in foreign policy of the US government have led to, that Russia's position strengthened even in comparison with the period of the Cold War. Then, at least, was a clear division - are allies of the United States, but here the "country of socialist orientation", cooperating with Moscow. Now cooperate with Moscow and Damascus, and Tehran, and Ankara, and Riyadh - all powerful and influential regional players.
That is involved in the fighting in Syria has turned to Russia numerous political victories. Turkey was virtually cut off from the US and deliberately acquired Russian S-400, despite Washington's hysterical. Russia turned to face the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which before were completely within the orbit of US influence.
Betrayed by Washington, Russia remained the only guarantor of security and the Syrian Kurds, previously considered an important ally of US forces in northern Syria. And it is - another important victory for Russia, and even greater image production.
So do not consider the US concerns about the growing influence of Russia in the Middle East and the tendency to intervene in armed conflicts outside the former Soviet Union groundless. Growing very wary interest in Moscow's actions on the part of Washington shows just how, that Russia does everything right and is becoming greater and greater military and political influence on a global scale. Of course, Americans, this situation may not like.
Ilya Polonsky
