Statement on the possibility of "early" (16-17 November) the signing of the "first phase" of the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, recently done by Donald Trump, likely, will remain on his conscience as another unrealizable prediction. Based on the available information, in the Celestial Empire they are not at all inclined to agree to the conditions set by the Americans and satisfy the considerable appetites of the United States. And this, as a matter of fact, quite naturally. In the "trade war" that has been going on for almost two years, the losing side is already pretty clear. And this is definitely not China…
Who is worse?
One of the clearest examples of this, how much the United States did not calculate its own forces and possible consequences, unleashing confrontation with China, are data, recently released by the American company Forescout, specialized in information security. It turns out, despite adopted in 2018 year the National Defense Appropriations Act (National Defense Authorization Act, NDAA), prohibiting US government agencies from purchasing equipment from a number of Chinese manufacturers, security cameras, produced in China, as if nothing had happened continue to work for more than 2.7 thousands of US federal government agencies. However, according to Forescout experts, the real figure may turn out to be almost several times higher - after all, it does not monitor all state networks, and not all clients show their cards completely. reason? It is banal and simple - the high cost and complexity of replacing this equipment. What could the Americans face when abandoning Chinese technologies and products and the AI sphere? In September, for example, a bill was considered in the House of Representatives of the US Senate, which were supposed to allocate a billion dollars only to "small and rural wireless providers" to replace equipment from Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp. And now we multiply this by the scale of the whole country and the entire constantly growing "black list". The amounts will come out fantastic.
What is characteristic, The "death struggle" against "malicious" companies from China continues in the United States with unabated vigor. For example, 7 October, the local Department of Commerce extended sanctions against Hikvision and Dahua. Both Chinese brands, along with the leading AI start-ups in China are now included in the so-called Entity List - a list of companies, who are prohibited from purchasing components, Software and other technologies in the USA without special permission from the American authorities. think, it upset them greatly? Vice President and Secretary of the Board of Directors of Hikvision Huang Fanghong, Briefing, dedicated to the results of the company's work for 3 quarter of this year, He stated, that the company does not foresee any serious consequences from American sanctions. Components from the USA? So Hikvision, "Anticipating impending restrictions", stocked up with more, than sufficient quantities. "Weaning" from the American market? Yes, unpleasant… But the internal needs of China alone make the corporation look to the future with optimism. Still would! June-September 2019 years, its profit increased by 17%, but did not decrease in any way. And this is not empty boast at all - according to analysts of Bloomberg Intelligence, 80% of the company's turnover "isolated from US sanctions". Chinese concerns, having offices and sales markets all over the world, restrictions imposed by Washington, excuse me, like water off a duck's back. But the USA itself…
One of the "stumbling blocks", that, likely, will make it impossible to conclude a trade agreement between countries either during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November, not even later, is Beijing's categorical refusal to make a one-time purchase of American food for an astronomical amount of 50 billions of dollars. USA needs it, to support farms that are “dying” as a result of falling demand for their products. China calmly declares, that he is not going to pour huge money into “then, what is not in demand ". Yes, and do it in one fell swoop, flooding the market with so many products, which "will be difficult for him to digest". As they say - eat it yourself! Don't choke… Symptoms, alarming for the United States, are not yet total in nature. This is not a storm front yet, carrying a tornado, and the clouds gathering on the horizon. But there are more and more of them every day.. Three banks went bankrupt in the USA this year - Louisa Community Bank, Resolute Bank и The Enloe State Bank. Just three? Or as many as three, Considering, what in 2018 there were no such cases? Also, Murray Energy Corp, the largest coal mining company in the United States, “flew into the pipe”. And this is just the largest of a long list of companies in the industry that have "burst" in recent years.. What does this indicate? Well, definitely not about the prosperity of the American economy.
Who is the future?
The most important thing, that to blame everything that happens on just a "tactical loss", promising the United States to fix things in the more or less long term, nothing is impossible. Objective realities do not allow. The United States is losing ground to China in literally all directions. So, according to research, held annually by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse and dedicated to such a wonderful thing, as the global welfare of humanity, this year, for the first time in history, the Celestial Empire bypassed the Americans in the number of those, who belongs to 10% richest people on the planet. In China, such lucky ones 99.9 million people, and in the US 98.8 million. Americans still lead in the number of millionaires. However, there is also a nuance here.. If in the United States since 2000 by 2019 years the number of those, whose fortune is numbered with six zeros, increased from 7.4 to 18.6 million people (i.e, a little more, than twice), the number of millionaires in the Middle Kingdom during the same time increased by 117 time! FROM 38 thousands to 4.4 million people, respectively. At this rate, there is no doubt, the Chinese will soon seize the palm in this nomination. Impetuous, just the incredible dynamics of the development of the Chinese economy today leaves almost no chance for competitors. This is best demonstrated by the distribution of places on the "podium" of the most expensive startups, where China also managed to take the top position this year. Naturally, displacing the USA…
As is known, Companies in the business world are called "unicorns", which in just 5 years since foundation, managed to overcome the billion dollar bar in their capitalization. According to Hurun Research Institute, 80% out of almost half a thousand such "fabulous animals" available on the planet today, owned by Chinese and Americans. However, the Celestial Empire this year came forward by 3 positions, from 206 startups worth a billion against 203 in USA. Why is that? Did, in my opinion, the example explains a lot, which I will allow myself to cite below, at the same time slightly diluting the dry figure of economic calculations. Not so long ago at Drexel University USA (quite prestigious and famous) a colossal scandal broke out. Professor Chick Nwankle, served as Head of the Department of Electrical Engineering, for several years managed to squander on gambling, booze and girls with reduced social responsibility are neither more nor less, a 200 thousand dollars from university funds! Little of, This money was received by Drexel as a state grant for research in the field of energy and naval technology! We then wonder, why ammunition lifters do not work on their aircraft carriers… The funniest, what's the whole story, revealed during internal audit, cost the "egg-head" reveler just to be fired (and even then "at will"), and the obligation to return from his own pocket everything wasted. Окружной прокурор даже не выдвинул обвинений против распоясавшегося «научного светила», ограничившись словесным порицанием. Well, а теперь представьте, что ожидало бы ученого, caught in similar affairs in China? Here's something…
Trump and others like him can broadcast as much as they like about the "destructiveness" of socialism and the like, extremely controversial things. However, it is the combination of incredible ability to work with the highest discipline that constitutes the "formula for success" of the Celestial Empire., lifted her to the top of the global economic "pyramid". A huge role, naturally, huge funding from the state plays, not stingy to invest fabulous sums in more and more new scientific and industrial developments. However, as the above example from American practice shows, funding alone is not enough… The future belongs to China. And these are not the words of the local party leaders spoken from a high rostrum in Beijing., and the conclusions, which analysts have come to Bloomberg, in their calculations based on forecasts of the International Monetary Fund. In their opinion, in the coming 5 years, the growth of the Chinese economy will still slow down. TO 2024 year, its share in the growth of world GDP will be "only" 28.3% against the current 32.7%. Only at this moment China will be the undisputed leader in this area on the planet., and the United States will "slide" into third place, losing in the race even to India. However, this, likely, optimistic forecast - for Americans. If they, not wishing to come to his senses, will continue the "trade war" with the proved indestructible and unshakable rival, it could be much worse.
I remember, at the very beginning of this confrontation in one of the publications I came across the headline, It is stating, that "the US will force the Chinese to have smartphones". Очень смешно вспоминать это сейчас. Кушать собственные высокотехнологические изделия жители Поднебесной и не подумали. Они продолжают штамповать их, how established, заваливая этой продукцией весь мир. But American soybeans with beef no longer cause their appetite.. Ate. No matter how, given such a development of events, some people in the United States would eventually have to use corn cobs unclaimed by the Chinese as a means of communication…
Author: Alexander Neukropny
