The withdrawal of US troops from the northern regions of Syria does not mean the final withdrawal of Americans from this long-suffering country.. Syria has oil, albeit not enough, which means, that the American army will not voluntarily leave the country. Became known, that Washington is preparing the transfer of additional forces and means to establish control over oil wells in Syria.
"Oil Region"
Yet 23 October US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly made statements about the need to withdraw American troops from territory like Syria, and other countries of the Near and Middle East, made a very important statement. In it, he noted, that American troops are in control of Syria's oil fields, freed by them from ISIS fighters (terrorist organization, banned in Russia) and they are not going to leave oil-bearing areas.
In fact, Trump's words put an end to the very idea of a complete withdrawal of American troops.. It turns out, the troops will leave only from there, where there is no oil and there is no particular financial sense in the American military presence. With regard to strategically important areas, then the Americans will stay there. Furthermore, in Washington are even going to build up their military presence, transferring additional units to the oil regions, equipped with armored vehicles.
Oil fields in Deir ez-Zor province make up more than a third of all Syrian oil. Several years ago they were under the control of terrorist groups., for whom illegal oil production was one of the main sources of financing for their activities. Then the fields were taken over by the Syrian Democratic Forces, behind which Washington stood. And this was done with the direct participation of the American military.
Today, official Damascus requires the United States to leave the oil regions of Syria. But the American leadership, as is known, to the statements of Bashar al-Assad is indifferent. For, so that the Syrian government does not try to regain control of the oil wells, at the Pentagon and were going to send additional military units to the Syrian oil-bearing regions, equipped with armored vehicles. While information, reported to the press, is sketchy - the US military does not disclose its plans, but already clear, that the troops will be transferred just to the province of Deir ez-Zor.
The main reason for this decision by Washington was fears, that Bashar al-Assad will try to establish control over oil and gas fields, relying on the help of Russia and Iran. Especially, that the attention of the world and the United States, including now, has been diverted to events around the Syrian-Turkish border.
Besides, there is no certainty that, that ISIS fighters will not try to take revenge and regain lost ground in Deir ez-Zor province. After all, despite repeated statements by many participants in the Syrian conflict about the defeat of terrorists, in fact, their formations are still not completely destroyed, not even speaking about, that local and foreign radicals can always become a reserve, from which the organization will be reborn.
by the way, Donald Trump urged Kurdish forces to reformat their attitude towards oil regions, by writing on his Twitter:
maybe, it's time for the Kurds to go to the oil region!
In this way, the American leadership does not hide the special importance of control over the oil-bearing regions of Syria, and this indicates that, that the Americans won't give them up so easily.
Where will the US armored forces be deployed?
American columnist Dan Lamotte of The Washinton Post suggests, that a military contingent will be stationed in the vicinity of the Conoco gas plant, which is with 2017 years under the control of the Kurds from the Syrian Democratic Forces. This place is near the city of Deir ez-Zor. And the fact, that the Americans will need tanks to control the fields, testifies to the Pentagon's understanding of the vulnerability of lighter forces, especially in the absence of support for artillery and helicopters.
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Deir ez-Zor was called the "Pearl of the Desert" before the war, but today nothing resembles the former well-being of the city. He was very badly damaged during the fighting, a significant part of the population fled from it. The main reason for terrorists' interest in the city, of course, there were oil fields around. Militants invaded Deir ez-Zor governorate from neighboring Iraq and terrorized the city's surroundings for a long time, kept the blockade, controlling almost half of Deir ez-Zor.
The risks of the return of ISIS fighters or the emergence of new similar groups are associated with the peculiarities of the socio-economic development of the Deir ez-Zor region itself., with the ethno-confessional composition of its population.
Despite the presence of oil fields, the desert province of Deir ez-Zor was one of the poorest and most depressed regions of Syria before the war. Youth migrated to other regions, either stayed here, suffering from unemployment. So there is nothing surprising, that the radicals have found a favorable ground for their propaganda, especially outside urban space, where the Bedouin tribes still live.
Arab tribes live in Deir ez-Zor province, those professing Sunni Islam and negatively assessing the dominance in modern Syria of the Alawites and the general pro-Iranian position of Damascus. The Sunni Arabs of Deir ez-Zor have close tribal ties with the population of the border regions of neighboring Iraq. And it is from there, from Iraqi territory, in Deir ez-Zor after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria and ISIS began to infiltrate.
At the Syrian Democratic Forces in Deir ez-Zor province, for obvious reasons, also there were always more problems, than in other regions. After all, the main core of the SDF is the Kurdish formations, not Sunni Arabs. And now the American command perfectly understands, that retaining control of the oil fields will be difficult for the Syrian Democratic Forces, maybe even unbearable.
by the way, at 2018 an attempt has already taken place to oust the Syrian Democratic Forces from positions in the area of the Conoco gas plant. Support of American troops was required to defend positions, Including F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, USAF, aircraft F-15E Strike Eagle , drones MQ-9 Reaper, AH-64 Apache army attack helicopters and US Marine Corps artillery.
Therefore, it is here that the American military contingent will be located., ensuring the security of the region and, the main thing, preventing the transfer of oil fields under the control of other forces, whether terrorist groups, government troops of Bashar al-Assad or Russian and Iranian armed forces.
Guided by these considerations, the American command understands, that even a few tank platoons will keep positions under control, at least - until the intervention of the more powerful forces of the American army.
Personnel and armored vehicles: who and where
It is not known exactly yet, what forces the Americans were going to operate in this direction. Newsweek suggests, that it could be half a battalion of an army armored brigade battle group. The Americans will definitely send at least twenty tanks to Deir ez-Zor.
Dan Lamotte talks about an armored company - that is, about several tanks and a hundred soldiers, however does not exclude, that the number of combat vehicles, and the number of personnel of the American contingent will subsequently grow.
It is worth noting, that while the American press does not report that, what type of battalion can be transferred to eastern Syria. Therefore, let's turn to the structure of the US Army Armored Brigade. It is composed of three battalions of 2 companies on M1 Abrams tanks and 2 motorized infantry companies on M2 Bradley combat vehicles. Each armored company includes 14 tanks, and a motorized infantry company - a similar number of armored vehicles. In this way, the total number of battalion personnel reaches 635 human.
If we assume, that the Americans will send half of the battalion to Deir ez-Zor, then it will be approximately 320 human, by 14-15 tanks and combat vehicles M2 Bradley. But it is possible, that half the battalion is a symbol, but in reality there will be a person in the detachment 500, that is, an almost full battalion. It is also worth noting, that each armored brigade also has a cavalry squadron, almost identical in size to the battalion, but armed with the M2 Bradley.
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CNN suggests, that the American command can send less heavy units to the oil-bearing region, for example - motorized infantry, on cars and armored vehicles Stryker 8×8. Although there are no such armored vehicles in armored brigades, the ranger units have them, who also operated in Syria. Besides, personnel of armored brigades, recruited from various mouths, can transfer to lightly armored M-ATVs and armored Humvees, as well as for trucks.
If we talk about personnel, it, likely, will be transferred from the American forces already stationed in the Middle East. Firstly, the 3rd brigade combat group of the 4th infantry division is named as a possible source for the formation of a new grouping, which is stationed at the American base in Kuwait.
It is worth noting, that American units deployed in the Middle East regularly sent personnel to Syria on a rotational basis - and we are talking about both tankmen and infantrymen, and about military engineers, that, for example, participated in the liberation of Raqqa from terrorists in 2017 year.
However, some analysts point out certain difficulties, which Americans may face when deploying armored units in Deir ez-Zor. First of all, difficulties associated with the organization of fuel supply and maintenance of American tanks and armored vehicles. It will take a lot of fuel, so that tanks and armored vehicles can operate effectively, including in a static state.
Naturally, the question arises about the organization of the supply of the group. It is not excluded, that it will be carried out from the territory of neighboring Iraq. On the border with Iraq, there is a military base of the international coalition in the village of Al-Tanf. It is from here that convoys can follow to secure the base in the Deir ez-Zor area. For the safe passage of convoys, American aviation organizes patrolling of the route and its cover from the air. However, the convoys themselves must also be well armed to organize a rebuff in the event of a possible attack by militants or some other forces..
certainly, the continuation of the American military presence in the province of Deir ez-Zor will be negatively perceived not only by official Damascus, but also Moscow. Russia has repeatedly made it clear, that counts on the complete withdrawal of American troops from all over Syria, and the districts of Deir ez-Zor are no exception in this case. Another thing, that the American leadership always acts for the benefit of the United States, and if Trump, withdrawal advocate, I decided, that they should be left in Deir ez-Zor, then the positions of Damascus and even Moscow will not affect his decision.
Ilya Polonsky
