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Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Quite recently on the pages of "VO" was published an article "Do not be afraid of robots, gifts of those who bring ", in which the problem of job loss is mixed in the case of widespread use of robots in various spheres of human activity, selected industries mentioned, promising directions of robotization from the point of view of the authors, robotic vacuum cleaners are mixed in one pile, unmanned taxis and robots for cleaning radioactive waste. At the end, it is concluded that, that the absence of robots in Skolkovo or Rusnano is a logical consequence of their inefficiency:
strangely, but somehow they do not spoil us with news from the field of robotization from such "advanced points", like Skolkovo or Rusnano. But this only convinces, that doubts about their effectiveness repeatedly expressed by many authors of "Military Review" still have grounds.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

The volume of annual world shipments of industrial robots, thousand. units

Since the topic of industrial robotization is close to me, let's try to figure out, what is the actual situation in the industry and what are its prospects in Russia and in the world. This article does not plan to consider robotization in the service sector., unmanned vehicles or robotization of such specific industries, how programming. Industry only.

Some statistics

According to the International Federation of Robotics (International Federation of Robotics, IFR), the annual increase in the world market for industrial robots is about 15-20%. At the same time, the volume of introduced robotic systems varies greatly between different countries of the world.. Russian Federation (RF) is currently one of the countries with the lowest number of deployed industrial robots, about 3 work on 10 000 human

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Density of robotization. Number of industrial robots per 10 thousand. workers, employed in industry

Currently the level of sales, respectively, and the capacity of the industrial robots market in Russia is approximately 500-700 units per year. for comparison: the market of industrial robots in the PRC is about 50 000 units per year. The difference is palpable? And this despite the huge number of working-age population in China, almost an order of magnitude higher than the number in the Russian Federation.

The most popular areas of robotization in the world market are the microelectronic and automotive industries.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Segmentation of the global industrial robot market

The structure of the Russian market differs from the global. First of all, robotic complexes for welding and cutting metals are in demand, they account for about 80 % implementations. In second place is the developing segment - cargo handling and stowage, in demand in the food and pharmaceutical industries. To a lesser extent, milling, painting, measuring and other types of robotic systems.

The world's largest manufacturers of industrial robots are companies:
- WHO (Germany);
— FANUC (Japan);
- FIG (Sweden);
— Kawasaki (Japan);

— Motoman/Yaskawa (Japan, USA);
— OTC Daihen (Japan);
— Panasonic (Japan).

The leaders of the Russian industrial robotics market are the German company KUKA and the Japanese company FANUC., which together occupy about 90% market. Companies, actively working to expand their market share in Russia, are ABB companies, Kawasaki, Motoman/Yaskawa.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

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The KUKA robot range

China is making significant efforts to create its own industrial robots, however, at the moment, Chinese industrial robots are just starting to appear internationally., including the Russian market. This emphasizes, that the creation of industrial robots is an extremely difficult task. Here is precision mechanics, able to work in harsh operating conditions 24 hours a day 365 days a year, and a powerful industrial computer as a "brain", and the most complex control algorithms.

Despite, that the market share of Chinese robots is still small, with a high probability it will increase, as Chinese manufacturers are aggressively pricing, the cost of their products is often 2-3 times lower than the cost of competitors' products. Consumers are currently confused by potential quality issues, limited product range and lack of integrator companies for Chinese industrial robots.

There are currently no domestic manufacturers of six-axis industrial robots in Russia. Several factories produce so-called Cartesian robots and delta robots. And they, and others can perform some tasks in certain areas of the industry, but a full replacement for six- and more axial robots, they will not.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Cartesian robot ARKODIM from ARKODIM-Pro and delta-robot Hexapod from Eidos-Robotics

Stand with industrial robot ARKODIM

Work delta robot Hexapod

How industrial robots reach the consumer?

Most manufacturers of industrial robots do not install them on their own to the end customer. Why is this happening? An industrial robot is, in fact, "hand". You must put a tool in this hand, teach her to do a particular job. This is done by specialized integrator companies.. The tasks for integrators in some cases are not much easier, than manufacturing the robots themselves. In fact, the integrator must link the industrial robot itself or several robots into a single production complex, necessary auxiliary equipment - welding machine, grippers and gripper changing systems, milling equipment, painting, measuring or other, what is required to solve the customer's problems. The cost of the robots themselves can be on the order of 30-50% from the cost of the final solution - a robotic technological complex (РТК), which includes additional equipment, specialized tooling, writing the program code of the complex and much more.

In Russia there are about 50 integrator companies. Some integrators choose a narrow specialization, eg, implement painting RTK, or RTK for the food industry. Others work in multiple industries at the same time.

A non-trivial task - butchering pork carcasses with a German robot KUKA, such tasks are most often solved by integrators with a narrow specialization in this area

The largest integrators often work with one robot manufacturer, as there are certain differences in the software of industrial robots from different manufacturers. This makes it difficult for new, including the creation of domestic manufacturers of industrial robots, as they will need to attract or create integrators to promote their products.

Applications

Industrial robots are used in various fields of human activity, the scope of their application is practically unlimited and limited only by the imagination of the manufacturer and integrator.

The most famous application of industrial robots, repeatedly covered in the press, is the production of cars. Building a production line of cars based on industrial robots is an extremely complex engineering task.. In Russia, such lines are purchased entirely or created by foreign integrators..

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

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First, the integrator develops a 3D model of the complex, using special software, and then, in the development process, this model is gradually embodied in metal

As stated earlier, welding RTKs are most in demand in Russia. It can be as simple as welding complexes, and complex welding and assembly complexes, where there is a set of parts at the input, and at the exit - a finished product. Similar equipment can be used for surfacing - restoration of worn-out products.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Above is a simple single-zone RTK for welding container walls, below is a multi-zone RTK, in which several products can be processed at the same time

Simulation of a two-zone welding and assembly RTK for the manufacture of door leaves

Difficult technical problem - finding and welding a tube sheet with a robot

Application of robots on paint lines, plasma spraying lines, allows to achieve high uniformity of coating.

RTKs for cargo handling are gradually gaining popularity: sorting, packing, stacking. Such RTKs are most widely used in the food industry., from car glass and sheet glass manufacturers, pharmaceuticals and building materials production.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

Stacking bricks in stacks of a certain configuration, depending on the type of brick

A robot in a pharmaceutical factory

RTC can carry out milling and metalworking of products, holding in specialized grips as a tool, and the products themselves (the tool in this case can be fixed stationary). The tool / gripper change system can be used to select the tool / gripper required for a particular type of machining.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

RTK for locksmith processing of parts with a change in the grip of products

One of the most important tasks is the integration of industrial robots with machine tools. This can be working with a bending machine or feeding / removing products. The use of robots allows to give new properties to old equipment, significantly improve its performance.

This is just a very brief listing of the areas of application of RTK in industry. Robots can work as completely autonomous, and interacting with a person. The lifting capacity of modern industrial robots ranges from several kilograms to several tons., the maximum speed of movement along the axes is about 180 degrees per second, which allows to ensure the highest performance of the RTK.

Why robots are in demand in the industry?

Each enterprise has its own path to the acquisition of RTK. This is primarily, of course, the highest productivity on the same type of operations, provided by modern RTK, that no man can match. High performance is a direct route to gaining competitive advantage. The high initial cost of the RTK is offset by the lack of the need to pay salaries to robots, processing and social benefits, lack of vacations, maternity, hospital and other expenses. Technologically advanced industrial enterprises initially include the cost of RTK in the cost of a series of products, and write off RTK at the end of the issue, eg, specific car model. In other words, productivity is a key criterion for the implementation of industrial robots.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

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Another important factor is the quality of work, and, more importantly, stable quality. The robot does not get tired, therefore, the quality of painting the car body or the assembly of the electronic device will be the same at the beginning, and at the end of the shift. In Russia, a, perhaps, as in other countries, there is a problem of weekends and holidays, after which the quality of products often begins to lame, this is the case, if employees went to work at all.

An equally important reason is the problem of the lack of qualified personnel. for example, the above example of tube sheet welding requires high qualifications from the welder and his responsible attitude to work. No one wants to be left without heating in winter because, that the seams in the boiler burst. The problem of the lack of highly professional and responsible employees is one of the key in modern production. A strange situation often turns out: there seem to be workers, but in fact there is no one to work for, as their qualifications are insufficient, but employees do not want to raise it. Think back to the problem of longitudinal seam welding on the latest submarines. After professional welders went to Gazprom in the dashing nineties, huge efforts have been expended to restore competencies and train new employees.

Safety is the most important factor, if, of course, the company does not offer a wooden leg and a parrot to workers injured at work as compensation. In modern companies, safety requirements are one of the defining, and industrial accidents hit top management's wallet.

An example is the cutting of large-sized glass. Considerable weight and size of glass, eg, for supermarket glazing, makes their movement by humans extremely difficult and dangerous.. When, if the glass breaks, people nearby can be killed or maimed. For a robot, this task is not difficult..

Such tasks, as painting or coating, are associated with the presence of personnel in poisonous vapors, dust or mist. This significantly increases wage costs due to harmful production conditions.. Also robots are used to work with molten metal, work in high and low ambient temperatures, toxic atmosphere and a number of other negative factors.

The downside is the cleanliness of the robots themselves., especially in special stainless steel version. Certified robot for food or pharmaceutical production, electronics manufacturing, significantly less polluting, rather than human, no matter how strange it sounds. The robot does not need overalls, masks, easier ventilation and the like, which greatly simplifies the certification processes and subsequent work of the enterprise.

Unemployment as a consequence of robotization

Will large-scale robotization of industry lead to unemployment and social explosion?? First, let's see, What will happen, if you abandon robotization.

For example, there are two dairy factories. Initially both factories use human labor. One factory installed robotic processing lines during modernization, packing and shipment, the second continues to use human labor. The first plant will remain working 100 human, on the second 1000.

Very soon, perhaps, at once, the products of the first plant will become cheaper, than the second, since its cost will initially be calculated taking into account the depreciation of the robotic production line. The cost of the products of the second plant will gradually increase due to the growth of wages and social benefits.. None of the consumers will vote in rubles / dollars / euros for a product, made by human hands, will choose a cheaper and better quality. Especially if one of the negligent workers violates sanitary requirements, and consumers will be poisoned by spoiled yogurt.

As a result, after a while, the first plant will continue to operate 100 human, and on the second, no one will work at all, as it goes bankrupt. Here's a good example of an alternative to robotization.. And yes, must be understood, that a bankrupt dairy plant will not pay taxes to the budget, unlike robotic.

Contrived situation? Not at all. Most major dairy producers are already robotic. Others or occupy specific limited market areas, or eventually go broke and be devoured.

Robotics industry: the threat of unemployment, or the foundation of the economy of the future?

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It's not about, is this good or bad, and that, that it is inevitable. Consumers will choose robotics themselves, preferring better quality and cheaper cars, electronics and home appliances. Excavator made thousands and millions of people unemployed with shovels, CNC machines have reduced the need for turners and milling machines. In the short term, construction 3D printers could drastically reduce the need for skilled builders, and in guest workers. In this sense, robotization is no different from any advanced, society-changing technology.

Let's, we will close the country to robots, proclaim the era of socialism and the working man. In this case, the whole country will become unprofitable., for some time she will still move forward, but much slower than competing countries, and ultimately her (country) the inevitable collapse awaits for the simple reason, that people will look and compare the standard of living "here" and "there".

Alternatives and consequences

Then how can society adapt to industrial automation and robotization??

Likely, we will have several stages. At first, while robotization will affect a small part of the population, the movement of labor resources is possible within individual enterprises. for example, the introduction of a welding RTK will increase productivity, increase the volume of manufactured products and transfer the welder to those areas, where automation is impossible or unprofitable (there are almost always such areas). Or the company can organize training courses to change the specialization of employees, who lost their jobs as a result of robotization. That is, you will have to learn and relearn in any case., those wishing to get the specialty of a turner 2 discharge and live with it until retirement, at best, there will be unemployment benefits or very low-paid vacancies, not requiring qualifications.

In the next step, with increasing volumes of robotization, may already require solutions to create jobs and retrain citizens at the regional level. The bases of the needs of enterprises will be needed to ensure the rapid movement of labor between enterprises in the region.

Well, finally, at a certain stage of industrial robotization, the principle of basic unconditional income can be implemented, guaranteeing citizens a certain minimum amount of earnings, providing an entry-level living. In the future, it can be increased by performing social work, public service or commercial activity. Sounds fantastic, almost like communism, Nevertheless, even now this possibility is already being considered by some countries (a referendum was held in Switzerland on this issue), and years later 30-50, when robotization becomes a global phenomenon, unconditional basic income may not be a wishful thinking, but an objective necessity.

Where will the money come from for all this?? From the taxes of those very robotic enterprises. High taxation for companies modeled on some European countries, likely, inevitably. Will corporations go for it? The question will be between a lack of sales markets and a social explosion or high taxes and basic unconditional income., anyway, you have to make a choice.

For humanity as a whole, global robotization and the introduction of basic unconditional income will mean another round of natural selection, when some will choose the path of passive degradation, while others use the free time for personal growth, learning and self-development.

Andrei Mitrofanov

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anonym
anonym
1 year ago

with robots as well as with green energy. No maintenance issue raised, no maintenance. Small business in food production does not fit into this scheme at all.. And who needs so many zhrachki, if robots will produce it? Reducing the price of products? Rave. A large owner will reduce its production, to earn profit.