The Polish leadership is actively urging the United States to increase the American military presence on its territory. Poland flaunts ties with its overseas supporter before the European Union, however, the provocative behavior of the Polish establishment may lead both to a deterioration in relations between Warsaw and Berlin, and to undermine the strategic foundations of security in Europe.
Friendship across the ocean
FROM 31 August 2 September 2019 Donald Trump visits Warsaw, where he plans to take part in events on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II and meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda. The parties are now discussing the documents, which can be signed during the forthcoming visit of the American leader.
Polish representatives declare, that Warsaw and Washington can come to an agreement on military cooperation between the two countries. This will be a logical step in the development of relations between the parties - the topic of expanding the American presence on Polish territory has been discussed for a long time.
A multinational NATO battalion and an American tank brigade are deployed in Poland - they have about a thousand and three and a half thousand military personnel, respectively..
However, even during Duda's visit to Washington in mid-June, it was stated, that Poland intends to deploy additional US forces and a squadron of reconnaissance drones MQ-9 with the creation of the necessary infrastructure for this.
Besides, information appeared in august, that the NATO contingent on Polish territory could be increased by the transfer of forces from Germany - and this is already a significant cause for concern.
Enemy at the gate
Warsaw regularly and actively insists that, that the security of Poland is under threat due to numerous violations of international law and aggressive policies on the part of Russia. This serves as her rationale for the presence and consistent increase in American forces.; as Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz recently stated, Russia will have to think twice, before using force, when she has international troops in front of her eyes, especially US troops".
Furthermore, Polish representatives are proud of close relations with the USA, actually flaunting American patronage and not embarrassed to use it for political purposes.
“In a few days, the eyes of the whole world will be fixed on Warsaw, the US leader is coming, and not only because, that considers this anniversary important, but also because, that today the relations between our countries are close, like never before", — Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Szymon Szynkowski vel Senk commented on the planned visit of Donald Trump.
Russian representatives, by the way, were not invited, apparently, because Warsaw sees in the upcoming events “an opportunity to pay attention to Poland on this important anniversary, to historical truth, which has been revised, - against Russia, naturally.
Mutually beneficial cooperation
Polish enthusiasm for NATO and US forces finds understanding among overseas representatives. In August of this year, US Ambassador to Poland Georgette Mosbacher set Poland as an example for Germany., wrote on Twitter, that “Poland fulfills its obligations to NATO on defense spending in the amount 2% from SMR. Germany does not comply. We would welcome American soldiers to Poland, stationed in Germany".
Before that, her colleague in Germany Richard Grenell said, that Washington can transfer part of its military from Germany to Poland, because Berlin is not adequately spent on defense: "Insulting, that American taxpayers are funding stay over 50 thousand American soldiers in Germany, while the Germans use their trade surplus for domestic purposes".
These words are the best match with the policy of Donald trump, who constantly criticizes the too low level of defense spending of many countries of the Alliance, Germany in particular.
Using Poland as an example, The United States inclines the German leadership to be more actively engaged in improving the combat capability of the Bundeswehr and financing American bases on German territory.
unlikely, that the troops will indeed be redeployed - this will require at least significant logistical efforts, massive infrastructure expansion, and the purpose of these statements is rather a "demonstrative flogging" of the obstinate Berlin.
Nevertheless, the foreign contingent in Poland, likely, will be increased - but due to the transfer of forces not from the territory of Germany, and from USA.
Polish government, by the way, the idea of American diplomats was not to their liking - so, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki explained, that "no one thinks seriously about, to decisively reduce the American presence in Germany. We need a military base in Ramstein (one of the US military bases in Germany - approx.. RuBaltic.Ru)».
Criticism by criticism and Americans by Americans, and Germany remains a major trading partner of Poland, therefore, she does not allow herself a particularly striking escapade against the EU leader - which is allowed to Washington, the (till) not allowed Warsaw.
Up game
However, the rhetoric of Polish politicians, together with their demonstrative flirting with the United States, cannot but drive a wedge between Warsaw and Berlin.. Dietmar Bartsch, chairman of the Left faction in the German Bundestag, responded to Grenell's words, "If the Americans withdraw their soldiers, then they should take their nuclear weapons with them. AND, of course, home, not to Poland, because it will be another dramatic escalation in relations with Russia, which does not correspond to European and German interests".
Today, European solidarity in Poland's actions is manifested only in receiving EU funds - but its risky military-political statements do not benefit the European space in any way..
Besides, against the backdrop of the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (RSMD) Polish friendship with Washington could lead to further escalation of tensions: Poland looks positively at the deployment of US medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe, while Western European countries understand the possible consequences of this move.
If Warsaw accepts (or be forced to accept) US proposal, then this will give her additional preferences in relations with America, but will have a devastating effect on the state of European security. From Russia, Most likely, a mirror response to Washington's actions will follow.
So today, Polish ambitions threaten not so much to quarrel the country with European states, how much to hit the strategic stability of the entire continent.
But while Poland is blinded by the appearance of friendship with the United States, it will only participate more actively in old and new American adventures.
Mikhail Zakharov
