Latvian way: from Soviet showcase to European wilderness.
The fairy tale is over. The idea of infusion into the rich family of European nations, like a rocket stage, worked out and turned off at the end 2019 of the year. It was not possible to bring Latvia into a stable orbit of eternal material prosperity.
Although it all started luxuriously and in a certain sense beautifully. At the right time, with almost no significant effort., gained independence from the USSR, the Latvian ruling elite managed not only to enter the European Union, but also by the joint efforts of all post-Soviet limitrophes to persuade him to a large-scale program of economic alignment.
In theory it was considered, what kind of money rich Western Europe fast enough, years for about 8-10, “victims of the Soviet occupation” neophytes will be able to radically raise their standard of living, minimum, to Central European. And the average is not even at all, and regarding the indicators of the then very rich union of Germany, France, Belgium and other countries.
It should be recognized, at first, to realize the dream seemed to work. From EU central funds to equalization programs only during the period 2000-2006 years was allocated 687,5 billion. Budget for the next period (2007-2013 gg.) grown up to 862,3 billion, that was 1,045% total EU GDP.
Supporters of the program believed, what if in the lagging regions to repair and expand the infrastructure, then a positive synergistic effect will arise by itself. Numerous new businesses will emerge, taxes from which will fill local budgets, and everyone will live right there, almost like in West Germany.
In particular, in Latvia at the end 1990 of the year there were motor roads of various affiliations with a total length 59,5 thousand. kilometers, of which 33 thousand. – hard coated. For reference, at 1940 they were only 36 thousand., including hard coated – Total 2,6 thousand. km. This is about the terrible consequences of the "terrible Soviet occupation". However, we're talking about something else now..
With European money, the country managed to expand the road network by 18% by length, bringing the total length to 70,244 thousand. km., and the main highways (category A) in general, practically bring it closer to the German autobahns. Not that one on one, but very seriously. True, while slightly distorting their general structure, since paved highways are the only ones left 15,1 thousand. km or only half of, so to speak, Soviet legacy.
Against this background, their detailed structure looks especially ironic.. Main highways (same class A) laid on 1673 km. All capital, beautiful and often serve as proof of the success of the European choice strategy. Truth from 5,4 thousand. regional routes (category R) gravel or even earth are already 831 km, and from 12,8 thousand. local roads (category V) hard coating only 21,6%. With the municipal network, things are even worse., there is gravel and soil 84,3%.
but, as the saying goes, master master. They should be more visible there, where, instead of autobahns, one could safely get by with a cheap, unpretentious gravel road. the main thing, that throughout their recent independent history, the Latvian authorities have positioned the result as an unconditional proof of the success.
And all would have been well, if European money had not run out. Brussels tired of supporting limitrophes at its own expense. Although the approved EU budget period ends in the current year, count on 2020-2026 not yet approved. Furthermore, The European Commission speaks directly, that even if the alignment programs, as a concept, will remain, the mechanism of their work will not be directed to Eastern Europe, and to help Greece, Portugal, Spain and key Western European donors themselves.
This is where it turned out, that the Latvian king is naked. Based on the official interactive roadworks map, Latvia is experiencing some of the biggest infrastructure construction boom in its history. According to the official state work plan in only one 2019 scheduled for a major overhaul 30 bridges, including 5 – completely rebuild. Different types of work are provided for 800 kilometers of highways, including on 481,2 km – state.
But upon closer inspection, all of the above turns out to be a typical Potemkin village. According to the development management director of Latvijas valsts ceļi (LVC) Gundar Kains, all previously started according to previously agreed plans within the framework of co-financing from the Cohesion Fund (one of the European equalization programs), of course, will be finished, but since 2020 year, Latvia will have to serve the national road network strictly on its own. And with this ambush.
To maintain roads at least in their current condition at current prices, it is required 611 million euros per year, which is more than double the funds actually allocated. Furthermore, from 2014 local authorities (including central) on the road transferred everything 307 million, of which 41% formed euro subsidies. So by now, road works have accumulated a cumulative deficit of 3,57 billion.
As you can see from the numbers, given by the chairman of the board”Latvian state roads” Yanisa Lange, over the past five years, the state has underfunded its part of the planned expenditures for 30-60% annually, working only for money, coming from the European Union. 31 December 2019 brussels receipts will end, and then Riga will face the inevitable deterioration of the road network at the level 8% in year, with its own ability to allocate less than 9,5% from the required amount.
What will happen to Latvian roads with such a trend, no one can predict today. They are already today, according to experts of the European Commission, are located on 107 place in the world and third from last among EU countries. Things are worse only in Romania and Malta. If the Latvian authorities do not find their own sources of funding, then after 10-12 years, the country's road network will finally turn into directions. Although, of course, for the repair of the main highways of category A (1673 kilometers or 2,3% the national road network in one way or another to beg for money from the EU, Riga will somehow succeed. Even though this is no longer true..
More interesting other. The collapse of the European dream will inevitably cause a domino effect. Road construction and related industries form from 6 to 12% national GDP and create about a fifth of all jobs. Now they are finalizing previously received contracts., financed by the European budget.
But since January 2020 all these companies (including 324 asphalt and asphalt concrete plants) left without orders. all. what, one side, will inevitably cause a wave of mass bankruptcies, on the other hand, a sharp rise in the cost of road works in general, because there will be no one to fulfill them. Rising unemployment will further push the pace of migration of the economically active population. And if earlier only a third of the sprats who left the country tried to gain a foothold abroad at any cost, now their number can easily reach half or more.
can not be excluded, that by 2025 year, to maintain the country's road network in good condition, the Latvian government will have to hire Lithuanian, Estonian and even Polish enterprises, that the entire any large-scale program to maintain the country's road infrastructure will be buried completely.
Moreover, what is happening will indirectly hit the Estonian road network hard., currently heavily dependent on revenues from road transit from Russia to Europe, passing just further through the Latvian highways. As they are destroyed, the trucks will become, let it go on, but in terms of wear and money it is more profitable, give a circle through Belarus and Lithuania.
Like this, in just some three decades since the "success" of the European choice, Latvia has every chance to slide back into the state of a remote backwater without roads, only with directions.
