Immediately it is necessary to make a reservation, that no one has any specific information, including the author, no, and all, who writes about this topic, generally, speculate, speculation and rumor filtering, whatever sources they cite.
Overlap zone 15-20 July
Nenoxe landfill
so, in the official announcement, what “at the training ground in the Arkhangelsk region” there was an emergency, during the test “liquid propellant rocket engine”, resulting in the death of two people and the injury of six others. This polygon is called the 45th State Marine Test Site of the Navy and it is located in Nenoks, at 30 km from Severodvinsk. Nenoxa is quite an interesting place, almost all missiles were and are being tested there, which enter service with the Navy: PKR, PLUR, BIG and even BRPL. Their throwing launches were also carried out there at one time. There is information from various sources., what is being tested there now and hypersonic long-range heavy anti-ship missiles 3M22 “zircon”. Furthermore, recently, restrictions on flights and shipping were introduced in the area of the test site (NOTAMs) from 15 to 20 July.
Nenoxe landfill
But, unlike typical “zircon” prohibitions, it wasn't narrow enough, but extending for hundreds and hundreds of kilometers, from Nenoksa to the Chizhi training ground (where are the fall fields, in particular, and for launches of SLBMs with SSBNs from the Red Banner Pacific Fleet) and height-overlapping prohibition zone, as it was in NOTAM on 2-4 July. It was a small area, near the landfill, with heights from 0 to 1000 m. What does it say about, that at that time it was clearly not a heavy hypersonic anti-ship missile that flew, which is capable of flying on small, and at high altitudes, but something else, not fast, not long-range, and, perhaps, it was then about the throwing launch of a certain product, or about, that it just twisted circles in the area of the training ground. This time there were no warnings., probably, flight tests were not planned for that day.
There is another version, that Nenoxa is one of several places, along with Kapustin Yar and the Pankov Land peninsula on Novaya Zemlya, where components and prototypes of ground-based missiles with an unlimited range and a nuclear air-breathing engine are tested (GO) “petrel”, with an index presumably 9M730. This is evidenced by the awning-mobile arched shelters found on Google images., found on Pankova Land, Where “petrel” experienced exactly (identified by video), and of CapJare, and there is such a thing on Nenoksa. They are all the same size, about 17-19 m, and are inside their launchers.
Test facility at the 45th range, intended for testing a new CR, according to the CIA. As well as awning-mobile arched shelters at the test site on Novaya Zemlya and Nenox
Variants of what happened - a lot
so, what could really go wrong there? If taken literally, then it really cannot be ruled out an explosion or fire of one of the liquid-propellant SLBM liquid-propellant rocket engines, let us say, R-29RMU2.1 “Liner” or some other. But, on the other hand, these missiles have not been tested there for a long time - they do not need. Can, some fire tests of some new version of the engine were carried out? Or a throwing launch of a modernized SLBM? Unlikely, but how version can be accepted. This may also explain the presence of people in the means of chemical, radiation and bioprotection on frames, where the wounded are loaded into an ambulance. The fuel for such rockets is UDMH - asymmetric dimethylhydrazine, highly toxic substance, no better there and the oxidizer. This also explains the closure of the area of the landfill for navigation after the emergency for a month - if some debris and fuel and an oxidizer fell into the water, then the debris must be removed, and the poison needs time to dissipate in the water.
There was a video demonstration of "Dagger" missile system
Access blocking zone for navigation for a month, to 10 September
To the explosion version “zircon” or its engine is unbelievable. No, of course, understandably, that any new, and especially such a breakthrough product, like 3M22, cannot do without test accidents. But it is unlikely that the engine there refers to liquid jet, as well as the first, acceleration stage. known, that their developer is a Perm NGO “spark”, and they are working on solid fuel engines.
maybe, that the accident happened while testing an engine or a non-nuclear prototype “petrel” - nuclear would hardly be tested near Severodvinsk and Arkhangelsk, That's what New Earth is for.. Rumors about the connection of radiation in Severodvinsk, which increased to extremely modest values and by whole 20-30 minutes, with tests of 9M730 or its components, generally, also don't fit, especially since the discovered radioactive isotope was radon, and it clearly does not fit the definition of traces of the destruction of a nuclear-powered jet engine. Radon emissions are most often of natural origin..
There is another version about, that the emergency happened on a ship. Really, on a published satellite image from 8 August, in the sea, opposite the landfill site, where 9M730 is supposedly tested, there were several ships and ships. Most of the AIS sensor was disabled, but one was still identified. And that ship was a special tanker “Serebryanka” - a small boat 102 m and deadweight 1625 t, designed to service nuclear icebreakers and collect liquid radioactive waste. Why was there “Serebryanka”, unknown. A fire on such a ship can be a source of trouble., I don't want this kind of scenario..
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Special tanker ship “Serebryanka” and its location on a satellite image from 8 August near Nenoksa
Other versions of what happened are possible..
Chernobyl is canceled
The silence on this subject on the part of the Russian Defense Ministry gave rise to another “influx” different kind “alarm experts” and just tantrums that we have, what's in the West, frightening inhabitants almost new Chernobyl in Nenoksa. Fortunately, the anti-Soviet series from HBO was recently, the western inhabitant has not forgotten the word Chernobyl, and you can scare him. However, and we have enough different wise men, advising residents of Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk to drink iodine, although there is no reason for this. what, by the way, can lead to poisoning, in such cases, they drink iodine preparations, and not iodine itself - let the authors of such rumors drink iodine, bubbles, without diluting. maybe, these are dishonest drug dealers in a hurry, and then a lot of iodine accumulated?
Unfortunately, the theme of the Nenoksa test site itself does not imply openness in the coverage of events on it. As well as the recent accident at the GUGI AGS - official information is extremely stingy and gives a lot of room for fiction, what many use. The real emergency scenario on Nenoksa may be completely different, with breakthrough products unrelated and very prosaic. But it's unlikely we'll know for sure anytime soon., although informational “shaft” will only grow.
I. Vyatkin, especially for “military review”
