Unemployment still falling and falls
Rosstat again "pleased" - this time on the labor market data. It turns out, that in Russia following the general demographic crisis began and the drop in the number of able-bodied citizens. Over the past six months, the number of economically active population in the country has decreased by almost one million people. In this case, the natural decline was 180 thousands of people, and the rest - retirements, disability population, and the like is not very funny occasions.
Need to mark, all news, somehow related to the demographic situation in the country, now wearing a negative background. This is understandable: Russian stall at another demographic hole grows, to compensate for population decline becomes nobody to, and this is more noticeable impact on many different areas of our lives, now and in the labor market.
Compared with the previous year slightly increased influx of migrants, but he could not cover the natural wane: 115,5 thousand. arrivals were able to compensate only 64% loss. At the same time until we leave aside the question of migrants quality, although it is very important: interestingly, that the country, blessed long-term stability of the vertical, He wants to come now not so many foreigners. And to do this rate is not only a crime against the indigenous population of Russia, but also just stupid. but, as we all know, wishing still missing ...
by the way, the publication of these data revealed a juicy details: is, historic low, which put the Russian unemployment (4,4% at the moment) It explained in the first place the rapid elimination of hundreds of thousands of Russians from the labor market. In fact, the number of employees drops quite significantly, it has declined over the past year 728 thousands of people, but the number of economically active population falls faster pace. Over the past year the difference was 212 thousands of people, and this is exactly the, how much "down unemployment" in Russia over the past year.
A good reason to report to the Kremlin about the next economic victory, agree? And stands before the mind's eye of some shiny Deputy Prime Minister, report on Putin insolently broadcasts on the premises for the coming growth and the first signs of future prosperity. Vernon, they say, road go, Unemployment has decreased ...
Notably, that the results of the pension reform while the labor market is not observed. Although it is increasing the number of employed explained to us the need to increase the retirement age. And that, said, labor will not be missed, a pension can not earn. Of course, not yet evening, but an alarming bell, agree. We are here and our main doctor of economic sciences fool put?
Well no, this can not be, there he Kudrin and Chubais were supporters of reform, and they are well-known economic geniuses ...
more migrants, good and different!
of course, we just heard the voice of "experts", calling for a rapid and massive involvement of migrants. allegedly, without them, birthmarks, hard-working, talented and professional, we immediately come kirdyk. And to prevent it, we ought to do in Russia the conditions are for them, to them about any of Europe and no longer wanted to think.
On the other hand, distributed more reasonable, but still alarmed by the voices of those, who says the low labor productivity in Russia. Our productivity is about 26 dollars per hour (source, This would be reflected in any way on our salaries ...), whereas in Germany it reaches 76 dollars per hour on average,, and in Japan, eg, 46 dollars. by the way, these figures as a hint, that we are not all right with the distribution of earned: obtained, that the salaries we should be about 3 times lower, than in Germany, and half the, than in Japan? But now let's leave this question, although it is very interesting (and very explosive!) itself.
Israeli Air Force attacked the CAP
The most interesting, that even the most sane experts do not relate directly to the low productivity of the dominance of migrants in the economy. While the relationship is directly and negatively ...
The cost of labor is a very important component of the cost of production. of course, exceptions are possible, but on average we take it for granted. Any entrepreneur interested in reducing the cost of production let them (if it is not a monopoly, of course), because it has a direct impact on its profits and business sustainability. But when faced with the choice between serious investments in production, technology, research, industrial exploration, etc., or simple hiring more and more cheap labor, he often chooses the second option: it is easier, it requires almost no investment, It pays off immediately. And although it can be understood, we must understand and then, that the dominance of this approach can be no question of a serious productivity growth.
That is, all our good motives and intentions, relating to the growth of this important indicator, It remains only shaking the air until, until the employer can pay people a penny, and dissidents and did replace the foreign migrant workers. Only an increase in labor cost, working hours make our businessmen to invest in technological modernization. I do not need no illusions - or any changes in this area the economic front, we did not achieve, our business will always whining, that it is not competitive and had more and more cheap labor needed.
And if we continue to listen to that nagging, trust, soon there will be a proposal to require workers with money for the opportunity to work. And even come up with justification: you also, they say, boring to stay at home? So you come to the factory, Pay and wait at the bench! With friends will communicate, and even new zavedesh! Yet again, discounts for regular staff ...
I'm exaggerating a bit, of course, but sometimes it is very useful: bring a certain idea or tendency to its logical finale and see, What's over. Sometimes this is enough, so that more the question did not apply to the power of the apparent hopelessness of certain of our efforts. Well, that absolutely have to finish: now there are a lot of jobs, where you can get just for a good bribe. doubt? well, try it, eg, in the Far East to get at least a sailor on the ship krabolovnoe ...
Work migration: absolute evil, that there is no justification
Strictly speaking, the idea to build the economy on cheap labor makes our economy chronically hopeless. Soon already, and China will surpass us in average salary. rejoice? That's popret?! Do not hurry: there are other countries in South-East Asia. And behind them in the queue should Africa. And if we think seriously, that the rate of the cheapness of labor will make our economy prosperous, I have to disappoint many: except that in a hundred years, when salaries in Equatorial Guinea will be higher, than in the Non-Black Earth or in the Urals, but not before ...
properly, what I mean? obviously, that labor migration is an absolute evil in every sense: it is a hotbed of crime, and new drug delivery channels, and the destruction of the long-term economic outlook, and unemployment among the indigenous population ... In general,, would desire, and a dozen cons are easy to find. And even if you remember a popular myth about the Uzbek wipers, without which Moscow is littered with garbage and filth, you get a finger into the sky again: for example, see the streets, eg, New Zealand cities, where there is no, probably, no Uzbek janitor. so here, these streets will be cleaner Moscow. And there is almost no migrant workers. Why? It is very simple: public utilities there are well paid, Local pleased to come to this job. Especially since it is well mechanized, highly productive, and physically so not very heavy.
By the way ... If there were Uzbek wipers, neither of which high mechanization of the process and the speech would not go. What for, really, if Suhrob Bekzod together with a small fraction of the excavator and cleaning machines replaced? And their services do not need to spend extra: just that, kick in the ass - and new to the margins of any route ...
of course, the issue of demographic subsidence in the labor market is not exclusively limited to the question of migration replacement. But do not forget, that those wishing to make Russia a lot of thoroughfare, and they are unlikely to miss such an occasion again ritually howl and pozalamyvat hands. We should remember: all very necessary costs, usually, expensive. therefore, dear entrepreneur, if you need a foreign expert, be kind, Insure it and pay more insurance for at least one Russian. And pay him the average salary in the employment service: the money left them unemployed Russians will be able to improve their skills, and will be financed activities to create in the region new jobs.
Foreign worker or specialist should be very, very expensive. Only then can we believe, that it is really needed, without it - not at all.
And let Dzhamshuta raise the national economy for its beautiful (without the slightest irony) homeland. And come to us as tourists. Long ...
Victor Kuzovkov
